September 29, 2012, Issue 39 Volume 9
Mamata's next stop could be an alliance mentored by Nitish Kumar and includingNaveen Patnaik. Its goal: a non-Congress, non-BJP collective in 2014, says Ashok Malik
In the absence of the Left Front — weakened significantly since the loss of West Bengal — two parallel approaches to a Third Front are evident. The first is the more traditional one. It is led by the Samajwadi Party, the leader of which has already declared himself a prime ministerial candidate. Yet Mulayam Singh Yadav is not the only one dreaming of forming the core of a new, post-2014 ruling arrangement.Mamata Banerjee too is part of a ginger group of chief ministers with plans of their own.
Should she actually and completely break with the Congress, Mamata will be taking a massive electoral gamble. Her next test in West Bengal is the set of panchayat elections expected to be held in early 2013. The panchayat elections will see a direct contest between the Trinamool Congress and the CPM, with Mamata hoping to decimate the former ruling party in its rural bastions. The Congress is irrelevant here. "It cannot even find candidates for 70 percent of the panchayat seats," says a senior Trinamool MP.
The Lok Sabha battle is another matter. It has hitherto been believed Mamata needs the Congress incremental vote to repeat her big victories against the Left Front in 2009 (Lok Sabha election) and 2011 (Vidhan Sabha election). However, she may well be calculating that the Trinamool has gained in strength over the past year and now no longer needs the Congress.
This was actually the assessment of Naveen Patnaik and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in 2009, when the Odisha party dumped the BJP. A hung Assembly was predicted, with some gains for the Congress. Instead, the BJD won handsomely.
A third chief minister who is making a similar estimation is Nitish Kumar of Bihar. He is more or less preparing for life outside the NDA and beyond the BJP's partnership. A senior aide of his in the Janata Dal (United) says, "He's in a fighting mood and couldn't care less these days for his critics in the BJP. He doesn't take them seriously." Of course, it is still uncertain whether Nitish will conclusively divorce the BJP. Nevertheless, he is making contingency plans. Like Mamata in West Bengal, he will be in a majority (or just short of one) in the state Assembly should he dump his all-India ally.
The three chief ministers are close and Mamata speaks to Nitish frequently on the phone
IS THERE a connection between these three chief ministers, who came together a few months ago to oppose features of the proposed National Counterterrorism Centre, which they argued intruded upon state authority? Political assistants suggest the three are in touch with each other and that Nitish speaks to Mamata frequently on the phone. On 4 November, Nitish is organising a public meeting in Patna that will be a show of strength for the JD(U). He is expected to speak about the rights of "underdeveloped states", and take up issues that may resonate with Patnaik and Mamata as well.
Later in the winter, Nitish hopes to take this "backward states" axis further and have a public meeting in New Delhi. It is possible that he may invite his fellow chief ministers from the eastern states — the three of them comprising a sort of East Bloc in Indian politics — to this event. Nitish has been speaking of a "special status" for Bihar — a point he reiterated this past week, shortly after the Trinamool announced its exit from the UPA. What he wants is an institutionalisation of the rights of "backward states", with more generous allocations from the Union government and greater local flexibility in spending welfare funds.
Much of this reasoning would make sense to Mamata as well. As for Odisha, the federal autonomy that Nitish is implying will appeal to Patnaik. His government has suffered on account of decision-making in New Delhi — by the previous environment minister for instance — that the BJD feels was politically motivated.
Of course, this emerging alliance is not just guided by enlightened ideas of provincial rights and governance. It is a political gambit that presupposes a weakened role for the two national parties in 2014. It is possible the JD(U), the BJD and the Trinamool could between them pick up some 65 seats — even if they contest alone in their individual states, without any allies. This would give them robust capacity for collective bargaining and potentially allow them to remote-control a coalition government in New Delhi.
Admittedly, the allure of the East Bloc was not the principal factor responsible for getting Mamata to turn her back on the UPA. However, the fact that it is fructifying as an option gave her confidence to snub the Congress. Her first attempt to forge a political relationship with another regional chieftain came when she reached out to Mulayam just before the presidential election earlier this summer. The SP leader ditched her then and made her look silly. This time the Trinamool leader would appear to have more reliable friends.
How far can she — and how far can they — go?
Ashok Malik is Contributing editor, Tehelka.
ashok@tehelka.com
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