http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120708/jsp/calcutta/story_15702210.jsp

Cloud promise... ...drizzle fizzle

Dark clouds have not brought downpours to the city this year. Will the rest of the rainy season be any different? Rith Basu and Meghdeep Bhattacharyya present the monsoon progress report

Picture by Amit Datta S ourav Basu has to walk 10 minutes from his home to reach Belgachhia Metro station. On June 2, the 30-year-old bank official bought a golf umbrella so that he would not get drenched during the rainy season while walking to the station on his way to office, as had happened to him several times last year. Twenty-one days of monsoon later, Sourav's new umbrella has not come out of its plastic sheath. Like Sourav, many Calcuttans who do not spend a lot of time outdoors have not had to open their umbrellas this season, thanks to the monsoon wind arriving in south Bengal 10 days late and barely making its presence felt since. After only three days of decent rainfall last month, monsoon needs to play catch-up but has not got a head start in July. The weatherman does not foresee the skies opening up soon. "There have been drizzles over the past few days. The weather will not change significantly in the next couple of days," says Gokul Chandra Debnath, the director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Calcutta. While Calcuttans like the cloud cover that is keeping the mercury in check, the lack of downpours is on everyone's lips. "I was so waiting for monsoon after the cruellest summer I can remember. The season has come but not the rain and it is still getting muggy at times," says Rakhi Mitra, a student of hotel management. WHAT'S MISSING The monsoon's bane this year has been the absence of atmospheric formations like cyclonic circulations and low-pressure troughs that cause depressions and draw moisture from the Bay of Bengal to form clouds. "The downpours have not been coming since the heavy rain-bearing clouds have not been forming. The amount of rainfall is far below normal although the number of rain days in June, 11, was close to the average, 12.7," says a scientist at the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. In terms of volume of June rainfall over the past 10 years, this year ranks eighth. Only 2006 and 2009, the year of the Aila, fared worse. That the rainfall exceeded 15mm on only three days last month is reflected in the rain deficit figure in the city (till July 4), 38.5 per cent. "On several days, there were thunderclaps at dawn but not much rain after that. Most days have been overcast with intermittent rain," said a weatherman. The total rainfall in Calcutta last month was 174.6mm, much less than the June average of 283.5mm (based on data between 1971 and 2000). The highest June rainfall in recent times was in 2008, when the figure was 559mm. Even last year, the rainfall was as high as 367.8mm. The performance has been so dismal that the highest rainfall in a single day last month, 53.6mm, was recorded on June 7, before the arrival of monsoon. July is not shaping up to be much better. The average aggregate rainfall for the month is 399.9mm. But the first six days of July have yielded only 30.3mm. It's not that the cyclonic circulations, which can change the picture completely, have stayed away entirely. According to Debnath, the Bay has seen regular formations of cyclonic circulations, as usually happens during monsoon, but they have been moving towards north Bengal instead of the coastal areas of the state. As a result, the sub-Himalayan districts of Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar and North Dinajpur have had a decent monsoon so far. Some areas in north Bengal have actually got more rainfall than normal, resulting in floods. EL NINO EFFECT If El Nino strikes, it might only get worse for monsoon. El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, is the increase of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which usually occurs every four to 12 years. South American fishermen had first noticed the phenomenon in the 19th century. Weather scientists across the world are saying the phenomenon is likely between July and September this year, according to an official at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. "The anomalies in oceanic heat content increased in June as above-average sub-surface temperatures became more entrenched in the equatorial Pacific. In the past, El Nino events have been associated with poor monsoon rainfall in India," said the scientist. IMD officials also spoke about the "substantial probability", around 36 per cent, of the El Nino being triggered in a month or so. "As extreme sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans, particularly El Nino-related phenomena, are known to influence monsoon strongly, the IMD is carefully monitoring the conditions," said a senior official. Three years ago, El Nino was believed to have been partially responsible for the worst monsoon in India since 1972. Let's hope the little boy doesn't get over-active this year.