From: Sukla Sen <sukla.sen@gmail.com>
To: india-unity@yahoogroups.com; peace-mumbai <peace-mumbai@googlegroups.com>; IHRO <ihro@yahoogroups.com>; issueonline <issuesonline_worldwide@yahoogroups.com>; arkitectindia@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, 26 June, 2009 23:50:30
Subject: [india-unity] Iran: Update and Analysis
Iranian cleric: Some in unrest should be executed
EDITOR'S NOTE: Iranian authorities have barred journalists for international news organizations from reporting on the streets and ordered them to stay in their offices. This report is based on the accounts of witnesses reached in Iran and official statements carried on Iranian media.
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A senior Iranian cleric demanded in a nationally broadcast sermon Friday that leaders of election protests be punished harshly, with some "worthy of execution." The country's increasingly isolated opposition leader effectively ended his role in the demonstrations, saying he'll seek permits for future rallies.
Iran's ruling clergy has widened its crackdown on the opposition since the bitterly disputed June 12 presidential election, and scattered protests have replaced the initial mass gatherings.
The official Web site of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, his main tool of communicating with his supporters, was hacked Friday, leaving it blank, an aide said.
Mousavi has said victory was stolen from him through fraud, challenging the proclamation of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the winner.
Mousavi has sent mixed signals to his supporters in recent days, asking them not to break the law, while pledging not to drop his challenge of the election.
Hundreds have been detained since the vote, including journalists, academics and university students, and a special court has been set up to put them on trial.
At least 17 people have been killed in the protests, in addition to eight members of the pro-government Basij militia, the government has said.
President Barack Obama, joined at the White House by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, hailed the demonstrators in Iran and condemned the violence against them.
"Their bravery in the face of brutality is a testament to their enduring pursuit of justice," Obama said. "The violence perpetrated against them is outrageous. In spite of the government's efforts to keep the world from bearing witness to that violence, we see it and we condemn it."
Obama scoffed at accusations Thursday of U.S. meddling in Iran by Ahmadinejad, who called for "repentance" by the U.S. leader. Obama added that Mousavi has "captured the imagination or spirit" of those inside Iran who are "interested in opening up."
In a Friday sermon at Tehran University, a senior cleric, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami, called for harsh retribution for dissent.
"Anybody who fights against the Islamic system or the leader of Islamic society, fight him until complete destruction," he said in the nationally broadcast speech.
The cleric alleged that some involved in the unrest had used firearms.
"Anyone who takes up arms to fight with the people, they are worthy of execution," he said. "We ask that the judiciary confront the leaders of the protests, leaders of the violations, and those who are supported by the United States and Israel strongly, and without mercy to provide a lesson for all."
Khatami said those who disturbed the peace and destroyed public property were "at war with God," and said they should be "dealt with without mercy."
He reminded worshippers that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rules by God's design and must not be defied.
The cleric also lashed out at foreign journalists, accusing them of false reporting, and singled out Britain for new criticism.
"In this unrest, Britons have behaved very mischievously and it is fair to add the slogan of 'down with England' to slogan of 'down with USA,'" he said, interrupted by worshippers' chants of "Death to Israel."
Earlier this week, Iran expelled two British diplomats, prompting the expulsion of two Iranian diplomats by Britain.
In Trieste, Italy, foreign ministers of the Group of Eight countries called for an end to the violence in Iran and urged the authorities to find a peaceful solution.
Also Friday, more than 150 demonstrators attacked the Iranian Embassy outside the Swedish capital of Stockholm, throwing stones, breaking windows and injuring one worker, police said. Officers evicted the few demonstrators who climbed in through broken windows and arrested one person, said police spokesman Ulf Hoglund.
Khatami, meanwhile, alleged that the icon of the opposition, slain protester Neda Agha Soltan, was killed by demonstrators, not the Iranian security forces. Soltan, 27, was killed by a shot to the chest last week, on the sidelines of a protest.
"The proof and evidence shows that they (protesters) have done it themselves and have raised propaganda against the system," he said. "I say hereby that these deceitful media have to know that the ordeal will be over and shame will remain for them."
In London, an Iranian doctor who said he tried to save Soltan as she bled to death, told the BBC she apparently was shot by a member of the Basij militia. Protesters spotted an armed member of the militia on a motorcycle, and stopped and disarmed him, said Dr. Arash Hejazi.
The man appeared to admit shooting Soltan, shouting "I didn't want to kill her," but the furious protesters confiscated his identity card and took photographs of him before letting him go, Hejazi said.
In quelling protests, Basij militiamen have broken up even small groups of people walking together to prevent any possible gathering. Still, dozens of friends and relatives of Soltan managed to pay tribute Friday, arriving at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery in groups of two and three, uttering brief prayers and placing flowers on her grave, witnesses said.
Vigils for Soltan have been held around the world.
Mousavi, who has said he is being increasingly isolated, lost his main link to the world after his official Web site, Kalemeh, came up blank and stripped of any text or pictures. Mousavi's associate Ali Reza Beheshti told The Associated Press the site had been taken down by unknown hackers.
In a message on the site late Thursday, Mousavi had said he would seek permission for future protests, even though he said unfair restrictions were being imposed. He said he has been asked by the Interior Ministry to apply in person, a week in advance.
The opposition leader noted that Ahmadinejad has been able to hold two postelection marches and a Tehran rally "that were well-publicized on state television, seeming to encourage participation with their regularly advertised march routes."
Mousavi has said the authorities are pressuring him to withdraw his challenge by trying to isolate and discredit him. He hasn't led a rally in more than a week.
Khamenei has ordered a large security detail around Mousavi — ostensibly to protect him, but presumably also to restrict his movements. Authorities have also targeted those close to Mousavi.
Late Thursday, state TV reported that the head of Mousavi's information committee, Abolfazl Fateh, was banned from leaving for Britain. The report, which could not be verified independently, identified Fateh as a doctoral student in Britain.
The semiofficial Fars news agency said Fateh was banned from travel so authorities could investigate "some of the recent gatherings," a reference to election protests.
At least 11 Mousavi campaign workers and 25 staffers on his newspaper have been detained. On Wednesday, 70 university professors were detained after meeting with Mousavi. All but four have been released. Those still in custody included his former campaign manager.
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Laub reported from Cairo; Associated Press writers Shaya Tayefe Mohajer in Cairo, Louise Nordstrom in Stockholm, and Ben Feller in Washington contributed to this report.
II.
http://www.ipsnews. net/news. asp?idnews= 47379
MIDEAST:
Iran Crisis Ripples Outward
Analysis by Helena Cobban*
WASHINGTON, Jun 26 (IPS) - As the political crisis that erupted after Iran's Jun. 12 elections enters its third week, it is becoming evident that this crisis will have repercussions in many parts of the Middle East - and far beyond.
The crisis may have its biggest effects inside neighbouring Iraq, where next Tuesday, Jun. 30, the U.S. occupation forces are due to complete their redeployment out of all the country's cities.It will also likely also have strong effects on the course of Israeli-Arab peace negotiations, inside Afghanistan, and of course on the prospect for any imminent war between Iran and the U.S. or Israel.
In all these policy areas, analysts warn it is still very hard to predict the precise way the current crisis in Tehran will reverberate.
In Iran, the most visible part of the current dispute involves President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, who claims he won a strong victory in the Jun. 12 election, and runner-up Mir Hossein Moussavi, who strongly challenges that verdict. But most Iran-watchers judge that the real battle is between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has more power than the president, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who chairs the country's powerful Assembly of Experts.
Khamenei and Rafsanjani were both significant figures in the Islamic Revolution that took power in Iran in 1979. Today, each of them heads politically powerful networks in the country's state, clerical, and economic hierarchies.
The dispute between these men is a clash of the titans, being fought at the very heart of Iran's ruling institutions. Most analysts of Iranian affairs predict it will not be resolved any time soon.
Gary Sick, who has followed Iranian affairs closely since the 1970s, has warned that, "This is not a sprint; it is a marathon. Endurance is at least as important as speed."
While this dispute is being argued over - in the seminaries of the holy city of Qom and the war-rooms of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as in the streets of some Iranian cities - the situations in neighbouring regions continue to evolve. They will be doing so in ways that are strongly affected by what has been happening in Iran.
In Iraq, as the deadline for the partial U.S. withdrawal has approached, the country has seen a serious uptick in violence, much of it against civilians. Many people inside and outside Iraq have questioned whether the Baghdad government is able to protect its people.
Iraq and Iran share a long common border, and though the Iraqi government was installed by the U.S., most of its members have been much closer to Iran than to the U.S. Most of the anti-government violence in Iraq is thought to have been carried out by Sunni militants, some of whom may well have some backing from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states.
The political paralysis in Tehran will almost certainly hobble the Iranian regime's ability to deal effectively with the challenges that it and its allies face in Iraq. And this, in turn, will affect the broader balance of power in the strategically significant Gulf region, given that Iran and Iraq have traditionally been by far the weightiest powers there.
Saudi Arabia is a geographically large, oil-rich Gulf country that for 70 years has compensated for its numerous vulnerabilities by maintaining close links with the United States. Its leaders and most of its people are Sunni Arabs. Most of Iran's people are Persians, not Arabs. Most Iranians - and certainly those in power - are strong adherents of the Shiite form of Islam.
Before Jun. 12, Saudi Arabia's rulers were worried that the U.S. military's phased withdrawal from Iraq would allow Iran to expand its influence there, and in the whole Gulf region, quite significantly.
A majority of the citizens of Iraq are Shiites, though they are ethnically Arab. Many of the citizens of the other Arab gulf countries are also Shiites, though their rulers are all strong adherents of Sunnism. Hence the tacit support many of these rulers have given to the anti-Shiite insurgents in Iraq.
Since Jun. 12, there have been several indications that the Saudi rulers and the Gulf area's other conservative and pro-U.S. Arab monarchs have been breathing a lot more easily. But several Gulf experts warn that despite the present depth of Iran's political crisis, Iran remains a significant power in, and far beyond, the Gulf.
Another area in which Tehran's political crisis has already been having some effects is the Israeli-Arab arena. For many years now, Tehran has had strong alliances with Syria, the Lebanese party Hezbollah, and the Palestinian movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
At least two of those allies, Syria and Hamas, have long sought to balance their relationship with Tehran by also building ties with western nations.
So long as George W. Bush was U.S. president he strongly rebuffed all those overtures. Indeed, he worked energetically, alongside Israel, to try to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah and, more covertly, to overthrow the current Syrian regime.
In the months since President Obama's January inauguration, Washington's stance toward those Arab actors - especially Syria- had already changed a little. On May 31, Secretary of State Clinton held a breakthrough telephone conversation with the Syrian foreign minister and a few days later presidential peace envoy George Mitchell visited Damascus for talks with President Bashar al-Assad.
On Wednesday, the State Department announced it would be sending a new ambassador to Damascus soon. Washington has not had an ambassador there since 2005, so the announcement was seen as signaling a significant thaw in relations.
One influential U.S. journalist, David Ignatius, linked that move explicitly to a judgment by the Obama administration that with Tehran suddenly seeming weaker than before, now was the time to "peel away" its allies.
Other long-term observers of regional dynamics challenge that explanation, saying Washington had been planning the move for some time, anyway. But regardless of which explanation is correct, it seems clear that with the Iranian regime busy sorting out its own internal problems, now is a good time for Washington to push forward its peace efforts between Israel its Arab neighbours with new vigor.
The prospects for success in this peacemaking also currently look good given that recent opinion polls show that Pres. Obama has strong and continuing support from the U.S. public, and reveal unprecedentedly low figures of support for the Israeli prime minister.
This political situation at home allows Obama and Mitchell to pursue their peace diplomacy in a way that is more even-handed toward both Arabs and Israelis, and therefore holds more hopes of real success, than that pursued by any U.S. president since George H.W. Bush in the early 1990s.
From this perspective, the fact that politicians in Washington and Tel Aviv are not currently having to look over their shoulders and worry about "Iran's growing influence" or "rewarding Iran's allies", as they previously were, could help the peacemaking to proceed more smoothly.
Iran is also an important actor in another area of intense U.S. concern: Afghanistan, with which it shares a border and many interests.
Tehran and Washington have been acting for many years in a tacit alliance in Afghanistan, since both have been strongly committed to battling al Qaeda and its local allies there.
Obama has long signaled the depth of his commitment to the war in Afghanistan by deploying many additional U.S. troops into the fighting there. The fact that he needs Iran's cooperation in that war - just as he needs a good degree of Iranian cooperation if the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq is to proceed successfully - considerably limits the degree to which he can pursue a strongly anti-Tehran policy, however much he might want to.
On Tuesday, he stepped up his criticism of the actions Supreme Leader Khamenei's faction in Iran has taken against supporters of Moussavi and Rafsanjani, when he said he was "appalled by" and "condemned" the violence the Iranian security forces have used.
But he stopped far short of caving to the demands made by rightwing critics that he throw his weight wholly behind the Moussavi-Rafsanjani faction.
But at the international level, one notable acknowledgement of the country's weight in world affairs has come from the fact that many governments around the world have already congratulated President Ahmedinejad on his victory. These include Iraq, Turkey, and most of Iran's other immediate neighbours, along with China and Russia.
Iran's weight in regional and world affairs has been dented but by no means ended by the crisis in Tehran. The developments that unfold there will have a continuing effect on the situations in the Middle East, Central Asia, and far beyond.
*Helena Cobban is a veteran Middle East analyst and author. She blogs at www.JustWorldNews. org.
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