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Memories of Another day

Memories of Another day
While my Parents Pulin babu and Basanti devi were living

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Would India and China Align Ever Even...

Would India and China Align Ever Even  after Suceeding Together in Formulating Non Binding COPENHAGEN Accord?





Troubled Galaxy Destroyed Dreams, chapter 433



Palash Biswas

http://indianholocaustmyfatherslifeandtime.blogspot.com/

Chapter 1: China, India, and the New World Order









by admin on June 2, 2006


Christopher Flavin and Gary Gardner



China and India are on the verge of becoming far more than economic
powers. (See Table 1-1, p. 7.) These two countries are now also
planetary powers that are shaping the global biosphere and are
therefore central to whether the world succeeds in building a healthy,
prosperous, and environmentally sustainable future for the next
generation. As China and India become world-class economies, they are
set to join already industrialized nations as major consumers of
resources and polluters of local and global ecosystems. And while the
largest burden of these developments will fall on China and India
themselves, the global impact is clear. (See Table 1-4, p. 16.)


The rise of China and India illustrates more clearly than any
development in recent memory that the western, resource-intensive
economic model is simply not capable of meeting the growing needs of
more than 8 billion people in the twenty-first century. Major shifts in
resource use, technologies, policies, and even basic values are needed.
The political ambivalence toward today’s development models that now
characterizes China, India, the United States, and most other countries
will need to give way to a full-fledged commitment to prosper within
the limits imposed by nature.


With their growing economies, expanding ecological footprints, and
rising political influence, China and India will need to be a part of
any plausible global effort to build a sustainable world economy. But
the call for wholesale change in policies needs to sound just as loudly
in the United States, whose footprint is the largest of all. Indeed,
the prospects for success in this venture are greatest if these three
planetary powers pull together to forge a new vision for sustainable
economic development in the twenty-first century.



Christopher Flavin is President of the Worldwatch Institute. Gary Gardner is Director of Research at the Institute.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/3992


Indo-China's convergence of interests in turbulent times
20 Dec 2009, 0215 hrs IST, Nirmala Ganapathy & Shantanu Nandan Sharma,
ET Bureau


After
months of turbulence in bilateral ties, India

and China have started
preparations to mark 60 years of diplomatic ties next year. President


Pratibha
Patil will be visiting China in April next year.



The bid to mark the
anniversary can be passed off as soft diplomacy that does nothing to address the
contentious issues at the heart of the relationship. But after months of tension
over the border dispute and visa issues, it is expected to cool down
temperatures.



There is already a perceptible move to improve the
atmospherics. India’s ambassador to China S Jaishankar in an address at
the Sichuan University in China set the ball rolling by listing out New
Delhi’s expectation from Beijing. “What are Indian expectations of
China at this stage? I would sum it up as displaying sensitivity on what matters
most to Indians, while accepting that we cannot agree on all issues just yet...
It is important as well to keep reminding ourselves that India and China
continue



to have a substantial convergence of interests,” he
said. He further acknowledged the border dispute but says that it should not be
“allowed to impede either functional bilateral co-operation or convergence
on global issues.”



A reciprocal gesture is now expected from
the Chinese side. In fact, the importance of Sino-Indian unity, especially on
the international stage, has been brought home by Copenhagen where the two
countries have demonstrated a strong bonding to ensure that developed countries
do not extract unilateral concessions from the developing ones. “India and
China have to cooperate. There is no way out. There are global and multilateral
issues on which the two countries have to cooperate and not let differences
interfere in the main momentum of bilateral ties,” says Wang Yaodong,
South Asia bureau chief of the Chinese newspaper Wen Hui Daily.



Yes,
climate change has broken the ice where India and China have forged common
ground. Significantly, the global economic downturn has also forced developed
nations to recognise the potential of the two countries bringing them together
in some common economic platforms.



Adds Rajat M Nag, managing
director general of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), “Already, China and
India are important players in G-20. There are issues between them, but keeping
in mind the larger picture, we are going to see more co-operation between India
and China”.



The momentum in trade has not slowed down through
the climate of discontentment. China remains the largest trading partner for
India with bilateral trade surpassing $40b, and the new target is as high as
$60b by 2010.



But the speed at which the trade volume has risen over
the years has injected caution on India’s part even on initiating a free
trade agreement with China. A recent ban on Chinese toys, clampdown on Chinese
cellphones in the grey market for security reasons and stricter visa norms have
all been part of the growing trade engagement.



But these issues are
not seen as stumbling blocks even though experts caution against allowing
protectionist tendencies to set in. “We need to make our manufacturing
sector globally competitive. Being protectionist is not the right response at
this juncture. India’s services sector has already been doing well, and it
can tap the market in China too,” says Dr Rajiv Kumar, the director and
chief executive of Indian Council for Research on International Economic
Relations (ICRIER), a non-profit policy research outfit.



But there is
a consensus that as the two countries negotiate a political settlement for the
border dispute, there is a need to focus on the positive areas. “We have
to accept that there are constraints. But at the same time we can’t
perpetually believe that US is the only landing port for both India and China.
We need to depend on each other’s economies as well,” said strategic
analyst C Uday Bhaskar. “We can’t have a relationship which is
purely black and white.”

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/the-sunday-et/special-report/Indo-Chinas-convergence-of-interests-in-turbulent-times/articleshow/5357540.cms

India, China GDP expansion dominates third quarter world growth

20 Dec 2009, 0400 hrs IST, John Ross,


India
and China, without ambiguity, are the economies which have come most strongly
through the financial crisis. Their year-on-year GDP
expansion, 7.9% and 8.9%,
respectively, dominates third quarter world growth. Each slowed significantly
only immediately after September 2008. Even then, their growth rates remained
high by any standards other than their own.



Such outcomes added the
reality that India and China have the greatest counter-cyclical economic
strength to the well known one that they have the greatest potential for longer
term economic growth. Such a combination is evidently of exceptional practical
and theoretical economic importance for other countries to study.



In
reality both this counter-cyclical strength and the long-term growth potential
are rooted in the same factors. To understand these clearly, however, it is
necessary to examine the real macro-economic consequences of the financial
crisis as supposed to various myths concerning it.



The present
international recession is not driven by a supposed downturn of US consumers
— which has factually not occurred. Between the third quarters of 2008 and
2009 US GDP declined by $280 billion.



But US personal consumption
fell by only $80 billion. In contrast US fixed investment fell by $552 billion
or 196% of the decline in GDP — statistically possible as improvement of
the US balance of trade partially offset it.



That what occurred in
the international financial crisis is an investment collapse is shown in an
extreme form in the US but is also clear in the other major economies. With the
exception of Germany, where the biggest factor has been an export drop, fall in
investment accounts for the majority of the decline in GDP in all major
economies — 52% in the UK%, 53% in Japan, 77% in Italy, and 99% in France.
Taking the G7 economies together the figure is 77%.



In contrast, the
strength of India and China has been that their extremely high rates of
investment have not declined significantly. At 35% and 42% of GDP, respectively,
the levels of gross domestic fixed capital formation in India and China are the
highest in the world. It is rising rates of investment in India and China, as
opposed to declines in Japan and South Korea, that have led the former to
replace the latter as Asia’s powerhouses.



There is nothing
mysterious about this development. Modern econometric research, led by Angus
Maddison and Dale Jorgenson, and codified in the revised systems of National
Accounts adopted by both the OECD and US, has swept aside the idea that
technological change or similar factors are the primary source of economic
growth.



It has established that, provided an economy maintains an
external facing orientation, it is accumulation of fixed capital that is the
single biggest factor in economic growth.



India and China’s
success in confronting the financial crisis simply confirms that their ability
to maintain very high investment rates allows them to resist negative cyclical
trends as well as maintain the world’s highest growth rates. A second
condition for success however will be whether they are able to continue to
calibrate the stimulation of domestic demand with the new reality of the
external market which their very success has created.



Annual
percentage growth in India and China has long exceeded the US (fig 2). Now the
combination of India and China has overtaken the US as the primary quantitative
source of world growth.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/India-China-dominate-world-growth/articleshow/5357615.cms

Copenhagen Accord



From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Jump to: navigation, search







The Copenhagen Accord is the document that delegates at the United Nations Climate Change Conference
agreed to "take note of" at the final plenary session of the Conference
on 18 December 2009. The BBC immediately reported that its status and
legal implications were unclear.[1]








Contents


[hide]




[edit] Summary








Text of the Accord

The Heads of State, Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads
of delegation present at the United Nations Climate Change Conference
2009 in Copenhagen,


In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2,Being guided by the principles and provisions of the Convention,Noting the results of work done by the two Ad hoc Working Groups,Endorsing decision x/CP.15 on the Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Actionand decision x/CMP.5 that requests the Ad hoc Working Group on
Further Commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol to
continue its work,

Have agreed on this Copenhagen Accord which is operational immediately.


1. We underline that climate change is one of the greatest
challenges of our time. We emphasise our strong political will to
urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize
greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,
we shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global
temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity
and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term
cooperative action to combat climate change. We recognize the critical
impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response
measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects
and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme
including international support.


2. We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required
according to science, and as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the
increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action
to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of
equity. We should cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and
national emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that the time frame
for peaking will be longer in developing countries and bearing in mind
that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the
first and overriding priorities of developing countries and that a
low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable
development.


3. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the
potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all
countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation
is urgently required to ensure the implementation of the Convention by
enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed
at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing
countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable,
especially least developed countries, small island developing States
and Africa. We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate,
predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and
capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in
developing countries.


4. Annex I Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the
quantified economywide emissions targets for 2020, to be submitted in
the format given in Appendix I by Annex I Parties to the secretariat by
31 January 2010 for compilation in an INF document. Annex I Parties
that are Party to the Kyoto Protocol will thereby further strengthen
the emissions reductions initiated by the Kyoto Protocol. Delivery of
reductions and financing by developed countries will be measured,
reported and verified in accordance with existing and any further
guidelines adopted by the Conference of the Parties, and will ensure
that accounting of such targets and finance is rigorous, robust and
transparent.


5. Non-Annex I Parties to the Convention will implement mitigation
actions, including those to be submitted to the secretariat by
non-Annex I Parties in the format given in Appendix II by 31 January
2010, for compilation in an INF document, consistent with Article 4.1
and Article 4.7 and in the context of sustainable development. Least
developed countries and small island developing States may undertake
actions voluntarily and on the basis of support. Mitigation actions
subsequently taken and envisaged by Non-Annex I Parties, including
national inventory reports, shall be communicated through national
communications consistent with Article 12.1(b) every two years on the
basis of guidelines to be adopted by the Conference of the Parties.
Those mitigation actions in national communications or otherwise
communicated to the Secretariat will be added to the list in appendix
II. Mitigation actions taken by Non-Annex I Parties will be subject to
their domestic measurement, reporting and verification the result of
which will be reported through their national communications every two
years. Non-Annex I Parties will communicate information on the
implementation of their actions through National Communications, with
provisions for international consultations and analysis under clearly
defined guidelines that will ensure that national sovereignty is
respected. Nationally appropriate mitigation actions seeking
international support will be recorded in a registry along with
relevant technology, finance and capacity building support. Those
actions supported will be added to the list in appendix II. These
supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions will be subject to
international measurement, reporting and verification in accordance
with guidelines adopted by the Conference of the Parties.


6. We recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from
deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals
of greenhouse gas emission by forests and agree on the need to provide
positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment
of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of
financial resources from developed countries.


7. We decide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities
to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote
mitigation actions. Developing countries, especially those with low
emitting economies should be provided incentives to continue to develop
on a low emission pathway.


8. Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding
as well as improved access shall be provided to developing countries,
in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, to enable
and support enhanced action on mitigation, including substantial
finance to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation
(REDD-plus), adaptation, technology development and transfer and
capacity-building, for enhanced implementation of the Convention. The
collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and
additional resources, including forestry and investments through
international institutions, approaching USD 30 billion for the period
2010 - 2012 with balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation.
Funding for adaptation will be prioritized for the most vulnerable
developing countries, such as the least developed countries, small
island developing States and Africa. In the context of meaningful
mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, developed
countries commit to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion
dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.
This funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and
private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of
finance. New multilateral funding for adaptation will be delivered
through effective and efficient fund arrangements, with a governance
structure providing for equal representation of developed and
developing countries. A significant portion of such funding should flow
through the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund.


9. To this end, a High Level Panel will be established under the
guidance of and accountable to the Conference of the Parties to study
the contribution of the potential sources of revenue, including
alternative sources of finance, towards meeting this goal.


10. We decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be
established as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the
Convention to support projects, programme, policies and other
activities in developing countries related to mitigation including
REDD-plus, adaptation, capacitybuilding, technology development and
transfer.


11. In order to enhance action on development and transfer of
technology we decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate
technology development and transfer in support of action on adaptation
and mitigation that will be guided by a country-driven approach and be
based on national circumstances and priorities.


12. We call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord
to be completed by 2015, including in light of the Convention's
ultimate objective. This would include consideration of strengthening
the long-term goal referencing various matters presented by the
science, including in relation to temperature rises of 1.5 degrees
Celsius. [2]


[edit] The Danish Text


At the Conference, a leaked document known as "The Danish Text"
started an argument between developed and developing nations. The
document was subtitled as "The Copenhagen Agreement", proposes measures
to keep average global temperature rises to two degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels. Developing countries
have reacted over the document saying that the developed countries had
worked behind closed doors and made an agreement according to their
wish without the consent of the Developing nations. Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, speaker of the G77-group,
has said, "It's an incredibly imbalanced text intended to subvert,
absolutely and completely, two years of negotiations. It does not
recognize the proposals and the voice of developing countries,". [3] According to the Guardian, an analysis of the document by developing countries lists the following critical issues: [4]


• Force developing countries to agree to specific emission cuts and measures that were not part of the original UN agreement;

• Divide poor countries further by creating a new category of developing countries called "the most vulnerable";

• Weaken the UN's role in handling climate finance;

• Not allow poor countries to emit more than 1.44 tonnes of carbon per
person by 2050, while allowing rich countries to emit 2.67 tonnes.


[edit] Criticisms of the Accord








Major opposition to the accord exists, to the extent that most
countries participating at the Copenhagen Summit remain opposed to it
and have chosen only to "acknowledge/take note of" it. Some of the key
criticisms include:


  • The accord is not legally binding.
  • The accord sets no real targets to achieve in emissions reductions.
  • The accord was only drafted by 5 countries.
  • The deadline for assessment of the accord was drafted as 6 years, by 2015.
  • The mobilisation of USD &100 billion dollars per year to developing countries will not be fully in place until 2020.
  • The accord falsely states that all Heads of State, Heads of
    Government, Ministers, and other heads of delegation present at the
    conference, agreed on the accord. It was merely acknowledged by most
    participants.

It has also been criticised by the head of the G77 as only securing the economic security of a few nations.


[edit] See also



[edit] References



[edit] External links


[edit] Texts



[edit] Coverage
























FACTBOX - World set to overshoot 2 Celsius climate limit



Reuters



Promised cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will put the world on a path to exceed a 2 Celsius rise in temperatures sought by a new "Copenhagen Accord" led by the United States and China, according to U.N. calculations.



A leaked note by the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat during U.N. talks in Copenhagen from Dec. 7 to18 says current pledges by rich and poor nations to restrain emissions put the world on track for a 3C rise above pre-industrial times.



Promised cuts in greenhouse gases by industrialised nations, mainly from burning fossil fuels, work out as a reduction of 14-18 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, according to Reuters calculations.



That is well short of cuts of between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 outlined by a U.N. panel of scientists in 2007 to avoid the worst of global warming such as droughts, heatwaves, species extinctions and rising seas.



In the same report, the panel also said that developing nations would have to have a "substantial deviation" from projected growth rates in emissions by 2020.



Following is an overview of current plans from the leaked Secretariat note:



INDUSTRIALISED NATIONS:



PERCENTAGE CUT BY 2020 VS 1990



Australia 3 - 23



Belarus 5 - 10



Canada 3



Croatia 6



European Union 20 - 30



Iceland 15



Japan 25



Liechtenstein 20 - 30



Monaco 20



New Zealand 10 - 20



Norway 30 - 40



Russia 22 - 25



Switzerland 20 - 30



Ukraine 20



United States 4



DEVELOPING NATIONS:



The Secretariat says that developing nations' 2020 emissions are harder to calculate because many promises hinge on rates of economic growth by 2020. The Secretariat note, however, gives an estimate of the amount of avoided emissions, compared with what would be "business as usual" without restrictions.



Brazil - reduce emissions by 36.1 to 38.1 percent by 2020 from business as usual, mainly by protecting the Amazon rainforest. Curb: 840-910 million tonnes.



Costa Rica - plans to be "carbon neutral" by 2021. Curb: 18.6 million tonnes



China - cut "carbon intensity" -- the amount of carbon emitted per unit of gross national product by between 40 and 45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels. Curb: 800-2,700 million tonnes



India - reduce carbon intensity by 20-25 percent below business as usual by 2020 from 2005 levels. Curb: 160 million tonnes



Indonesia - reduce emissions by 26 percent below business as usual and by 41 percent with international support. Curb: 800-1,200 million tonnes



Maldives - Aims to become "carbon neutral" eliminating all net emissions -- by 2019. Curb: N/A



Mexico - Plans to reduce emissions by 5 percent below business as usual by 2020. Curb: 20-180 million tonnes



South Korea - plans to reduce emissions by 2020 by 4 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, or 30 percent below business as usual growth. Curb: 160 million tonnes



Singapore - cut emissions by 16 percent below business as usual. Curb: N/A



South Africa - reduce emissions by 34 percent by 2020 below business as usual levels. Curb: 185 million tonnes

Alternative Conference Venue for Observer Organizations (NGOs, IGOs and others) Participating in COP15

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark



The Danish Government in cooperation with the Danish NGO-network Peoples’ Climate Action (PCA) is organizing an alternative conference venue at Forum Copenhagen for the observer organizations/NGOs and IGOs  and others who, due to access restrictions introduced by the UNFCCC, will not be able to enter the Bella Center Thursday 17 and Friday 18 December.



The alternative conference venue is at Forum Copenhagen, Julius Thomsens Plads 1, 1925 Frederiksberg (Metrolines M1 and M2 go directly to Forum station. For further transport information please see www.forumcopenhagen.dk/ english/location ). It will be available for NGO representatives with valid UNFCCC badges from Thursday 17 December at 0800 hours. TV links to the Bella Center will be established at the venue as well as wireless internet connection. Catering will be available.



The parallel conference, Peoples’ Climate Summit (Klimaforum09) organizes a meeting place as of today at Øksnehallen, Halmtorvet 11, 1700 Copenhagen V. TV links to the Bella Center will also be available here. Peoples’ Climate Summit is part of the parallel conference in the DGI town where seminars, exhibitions, concerts etc. are being organized, please see  www.klimaforum09.org  .



For further practical information about the alternative conference venue, access, it-facilities, catering etc. please contact PCA tel. +45 7022 2799 ( www.peoplesclimateaction.dk/ uk /).



Would India and China Align Ever Even  after Suceeding Together in Formulating Non Binding COPENHAGEN Accord?



It  is a Billion Dollar Question which will decide the future of the Troubled galaxy as International Media aligned with Indian TOILET Media and the Enemeies of Aboriginal Inidigenous Communities have waged a SINO India War fresh already and diplomacy scored ZERO status till this date to resolve the Puzzle of the Relationship between Two Tradional Neighbous with Great Peaceful Civilsation BONDED Together with the Heritage of BUDDHISM from which India ruled by Zionist Brahaminical Manusmriti Apartheid rule has departed long back in History. In India , now Lord Buddha Smile on the occasion of a Nuclear Explosion only and the Divided Geopolitics has been CONVERTED into a FREE Zone of Terror, Insurgency, Violence, Trouble, Repression, Military Option, Zero Tolerance, Destability, Disintegration, Alienation and Disorganisation, Nothing relating to the legacy of gatam Buddha, thanks to the US Promoted Free market Democracy!Meanwhile, United Nations' top climate change czar Dr Rajendra Pachauri has been accused of making a "fortune" from his links with "carbon trading" companies dependent on the world body's policy recommendations.

India
and China, without ambiguity, are the economies which have come most stronglythrough the financial crisis. Their year-on-year GDP
expansion, 7.9% and 8.9%,
respectively, dominates third quarter world growth. Each slowed significantly
only immediately after September 2008. Even then, their growth rates remained
high by any standards other than their own.



But it makes no difference with either Diplomacy or Policymaking as the Biliteral relations NEVER improved since 1962 Border clash. The WELL Fed SENSEX FREESEX Ruling Class does everything to highlight ENDANGERED India by China as US Nuclear Weapon Consumer Chemical Corporates targets the Wide markets of both the Countries and widen up systematically the Gap with intense hate Campain.While War and civil war conditions created in South Asia to EXPLOIT Natural resources on the line of Latest Hollywood release AVTAR, US ISRAEL led War Alliance ENSURES that no condition should emerge to stop the Shadow War just because a CHINA India alliance would kill United States of america as well as Israel, both Zionist Leaders aligned with Global Hindutva! CPENHAGEN Accord is a well set Example what India and china may achieve standing together.

India, China should team up for 21st century, rightly writes
TK Arun,
ET Bureau in Economic Times:









India

and China are ancient civilisations, neighbours, the two most populous countries
of the world, its two fastest-growing economies, friends

in global power talks
such as over climate change or world trade, rivals when it comes to winning
friends and influencing people around the world, conquering export markets and
cornering mineral resources. They tried to be bhai-bhai for some time, then
fought a war.
There is no burning desire in either capital today for
a mutual relationship as between blood brothers, nor is there any hunger to run
a blood feud. The sensible course for both countries is to rid their rivalry of
overt friction, extend the many areas of cooperation and share the special place
in the sun reserved in the 21st century for those who work economic
miracles.



The biggest irritant in India-China relations is a border
dispute. The dispute is a colonial legacy. The British negotiated an agreement
with Tibet in 1914 in an accord at Simla on the border with India and that
border, named after the then British foreign secretary McMahon, is what the
government of Independent India chose to uphold.



The Chinese never
accepted this boundary, saying that Tibet never had the sovereign authority to
negotiate a border. The Chinese claim some 150,000 sq km south of the McMahon
line as theirs, while India deems this territory as its own.



It is
debatable whether it made sense for New Delhi to view a boundary drawn by the
former colonial power as the final word on defining the geographical limits of
two territories that were new to nationhood but had coexisted for millennia as
great civilisations that respected each other.



The Chinese are not
prone to respecting other civilisations. For centuries, they considered their
Middle Kingdom as the centre of the universe, as the epitome of human
achievement. In early 15th century, legendary admiral Zheng led a naval
expedition and explored south-east and south Asia and Africa (some claim he
discovered Australia and even the Americas).



He reported back to the
peacock throne that the rest of the world did not contain anything worth Chinese
attention. But the Chinese had respect for India, as the land of the Buddha and
as the land from which they procured valuable knowledge, including that of
martial arts.



That culture of respect did not survive the colonial
experience. The British left, leaving opium-smoking Chinamen and tea-swilling
Indians calling each other names from either side of a border dispute, oblivious
of the expiry date on the commercial interests that had made the British get the
Chinese and Indians hooked to stimulants from across their disputed
boundary.



Emancipation from this colonial hangover took time. The
Chinese went through their wrenching experience of the Cultural Revolution
followed by the restoration of order and a new game of cat and mouse in which
the colour of the cat did not matter so long as it caught billions of mice.




India sent AB Vajpayee to Beijing as the foreign minister of the
post-Emergency Janata government, and followed it up with a visit by Rajiv
Gandhi as prime minister. Since then, the two countries have quarantined their
border dispute to a committee of babus from both sides and proceeded to interact
like two normal nations in other matters.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/The-Sunday-ET/Special-Report/India-China-should-team-up-for-21st-century/articleshow/5357582.cms

It is not just my vision! Even Economic Times innovates the line. As for me, the peopel who declare death sentence for me to raise the Voices of Indigenous aborigibnal majority Enslaved Masses are just defending the Rotten Hegemony and I hate to take them into any account whatsoever. I have grown amidst Himalayan landslides and Avalances, these threats and hate campaign would not change my stance, mind you!




Ban Ki-moon hailed a controversial accord reached in Copenhagen after all-night talks among world leaders. The agreement has drawn sharp criticism from environmentalists and poorer nations.U.N. officials, climate experts, environmental activists, and leaders of more than 100 nations gathered in Copenhagen, Denmark for a two-week conference on climate change beginning 7 December.On the other hand, Copenhagen: Top climate scientists said Saturday that the eleventh-hour political deal hammered out at UN talks in Copenhagen falls perilously short of what is needed to stave off catastrophic global warming.What many had hoped would be a planet-saving treaty locking major economies into strong commitments to shrink their carbon footprints came out as a three-page political accord with key numbers yet to be filled in.



More confidence building between “emerging economies, the least developed countries and the developed countries” is needed before a legally binding global agreement on climate change can be reached, says US President Barack Obama.



After a meeting of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit on Friday Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said that China respects India on the basis of equality and the China-US joint statement on South Asia does not target India.Then, a historic UN climate conference ended with only a nonbinding "Copenhagen Accord" to show for two weeks of debate and frustration. It was a deal short on concrete steps against global warming, but signaling a new start for rich-poor cooperation on climate change.The agreement brokered by US President Barack Obama with China and others in fast-paced hours of diplomacy on Friday sets up the first significant program of climate aid to poorer nations. Although it urges deeper cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases blamed for global warming, it does nothing to demand them. That will now be subject to continuing talks next year.



The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) today slammed the deal reached between the US and BASIC countries at Copenhagen, saying it appeared to undermine every principle of effective collective action on climate change.It said the details were still sketchy, but it seemed that the deal would - as with the Australian Proposal - eventually require major developing countries to take on comparable targets to developed countries.



At any rate, the distinction between Annex I and non-Annex I countries would be dissolved. There is no word yet on whether the Kyoto Protocol would - or could - persist, said CSE.



Since it appears to simultaneously destroy the notion of common but differentiated responsibilities, and any hope of setting global targets to avoid dangerous temperature rises, the agreement could deal a fatal blow to any hope of a fair climate treaty.



''It's also unclear why a deal that seems to involve only five countries is being heralded as a successful outcome in international negotiations involving almost two hundred countries,'' said the NGO which was keeping a close watch on developments at Copenhagen with its scientists and researchers stationed there since the climate change conference began on December 7.



The deal, which could not get the endorsement of all the 193 nations gathered in the Danish capital, sets a target of limiting global warming to a maximum 2 degree

Celsius rise over pre-industrial times and holds out the prospect of 100 billion dollar in annual aid from 2020 for developing nations.



There is no specification in the plan of greenhouse gas cuts needed to achieve the 2 degree Celsius goal, a rise beyond which would result in catastrophic changes in the climate.



The Accord contains no reference to a legally binding agreement, as demanded by some developing countries and climate activists.



Also, there was no deadline for transforming it into a binding deal, though UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said it needed to be turned into a legally binding treaty next year.



It was not clear yet whether it is a formal UN deal.

US President Barack Obama reached a
climate agreement on Friday with India, South Africa, China and Brazil.
The deal outlined fell far short of the ambitions for the Copenhagen
summit.

Here are key points from the agreement, which is titled Copenhagen Accord.

Long-Term Goals

Deep cuts in global
emissions are required according to science...with a view to reduce
global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below
2 degrees Celsius.

Legally Binding Deal?

A reference in an
earlier draft to adopt a legally binding climate agreement by next year
was missing in the final draft. This upset the EU and a number of other
nations, such as the Pacific island country of Tuvalu, which fears
being swamped by rising sea levels.

Financing For Poor Nations

The text says:
Developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable
financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the
implementation of adaptation action in developing countries.


Indian Express reports:

A US-brokered deal with four emerging
economies, including India, on climate change that places no
legally-binding emission cuts on developed countries ran into rough
weather on Saturday with a majority of poor countries rejecting it,
saying that it was one-sided.

The deal between
the US and BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) bloc is
apparently a gain for develop countries which are required under the
1997 Kyoto Protocol to take legally binding emission cuts.

The Protocol
expires on 2012 and the 194-nation Conference of Parties (COP) of the
United Nations here has apparently failed to get a word on its
extension.

Indian negotiators
-- Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh and Prime Minister's Special
Envoy on Climate Shyam Saran -- themselves acknowledged the fact that
the deal is not done until it is approved by the plenary. However,
Ramesh claimed that it was "a good deal."


"Right now we have a document that
says that we continue with negotiations on what to do about the future,
including the Bali Action Plan and Kyoto Protocol," Saran said.

Angry delegates of
many countries like Tuvalu, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Venezuela and Cuba
slammed the US-BASIC deal for showing them great "disrespect" by
leaving them out of the drafting process and imposing their document on
vast majority.

Cuban delegates
said that US President Barack Obama, who brokered the US-BASIC deal,
was "behaving like an emperor" and claimed that the draft was a "gross
violation principle of sovereign equality."

Sudanese delegate
Lumumba Di-Aping compared the deal to the "Holocaust." "This document
cannot be accepted for adoption by the parties present here," said
delegates from Costa Rica, adding that there was an absence of a
legally-binding treaty.







"The easiest yardstick to evaluate is the two degree target," said Andrew Watson, a professor at the University of East Anglia in Britain.



"This agreement will almost certainly not be sufficient to enable that target to be met -- legally-binding tough limits in place over the next few years would be needed for that," he said.



The Nobel-winning UN science panel warned in a benchmark 2007 report that if average temperatures increase by more than 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on pre-industrial levels, it could lead to runaway climate change and severe impact.



We have already travelled 0.7 C along that path.



More recent studies suggest the planet could hot up by a devastating 6.0 C (10.8 F), and that sea levels could rise by more than a metre (3.25 feet) by 2100 unless we slash CO2 concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere.



Such a hothouse scenario would create hundreds of millions of environmental refugees.



"Strictly speaking, it is a disappointment. We expected more," French climate scientist Herve Le Treut said of the new accord.



"What we have seen is the diverging interests of nation states and the planet."



Part of the problem is that most of the key mitigation targets have yet to be finalised.



"There is not much here to analyse. The accord doesn't have specific emissions targets for industrial countries, it doesn't have deviation from 'business as usual' goals for developing countries," said Alden Meyer of the Washington-based Union of Concerned Scientists.



"If you look at what is likely going to be listed in the annexes, you are going to be well over a 3.0 C," he said. "The accord also fails to set a target for 'peak year' for global CO2 emissions, ideally around 2015.



"It is very critical that you get a peak and a decline starting soon," he added.



UN climate chief Yvo de Boer made much the same point in closing out the 13-day marathon meeting: "The opportunity to actually make it into the scientific window of opportunity is getting smaller and smaller."



The deal does contain a few silver linings, the scientists said.



"At least it may signal that there is some willingness to take action, so that we might have a hope of limiting the rise to 3.0 C - 4.0 C, and avoid the really unknown territory that lies beyond that," Watson said.



In a special report, The Sunday Telegraph said that "although Dr Pachauri is often presented as a (climate) scientist, as a former railway engineer with a PhD in economics, he has no qualifications in climate science.



"What has also almost entirely escaped attention, however, is how Pachauri has established a worldwide portfolio of business interests with bodies that have been investing billions of dollars in organisations dependent on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's policy recommendations.



"These include banks, oil and energy companies and investment funds heavily involved in 'carbon trading' and 'sustainable technologies' which together make up the fastest-growing commodity market in the world estimated soon to be worth trillions of dollars a year."



The report said, "Today, in addition to his role as chairman of the IPCC, Dr Pachauri occupies more than a score of such posts, acting as director or adviser to many of the bodies that play a leading role in what has become known as the climate industry."



The newspaper, however, did not carry any reaction of Pachauri on its report.



The report claimed that the potential conflict of interest was first publicly raised on last Tuesday when, after giving a lecture at Copenhagen University, he was handed over a letter by two eminent climate sceptics.



One was Stephen Fielding, the Australian senator who started the revolt which recently led to the defeat of his government's "cap and trade scheme" that would place a limit on emissions.



The other, from Britain, was Lord Monckton, a longtime critic of the IPCC's science, who has recently played a key part in stiffening opposition to a cap and trade bill in the United States Senate. Their open letter first challenged the scientific honesty of a graph prominently used in the IPCC's 2007 report, and shown again by Dr Pachauri in his lecture, demanding that he should withdraw it.



But they went on to question why the report had not declared Pachauri's personal interest in so many organisations that seemingly stood to profit from its findings.



The letter was circulated to all the 192 national conference delegations, calling on them to dismiss Pachauri as IPCC chairman because of recent revelations of his conflicting interests, the paper said.



Head of The Energy Research Institute TERI, Pachuri shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of IPCC with former US Vice President Al Gore.



As delegates wrapped up an exhausting overnight negotiating marathon on Saturday afternoon, to end the 193-nation conference, UN climate chief Yvo de Boer assessed the results for reporters.



It's "an impressive accord," he said of the three-page document. "But it's not an accord that is legally binding, not an accord that pins down industrialised countries to targets."



A legally binding international agreement -- a treaty -- requiring further emissions cuts by richer nations was the goal in Bali, Indonesia, in 2007 when the annual UN conference set a two-year timetable leading to Copenhagen.



A new pact would succeed the first phase of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, whose relatively modest emissions cuts by 37 nations expire in 2012. It was hoped a new regime would encompass the US, which rejected Kyoto.



But the hopes for Copenhagen faded as 2009 wore on and the first US legislation to cap carbon emissions worked its way only slowly through Congress. Without a US commitment, others were wary of submitting to a new legally binding deal.



Big polluters, nonetheless, submitted plans for reductions ahead of the UN talks.



United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon hailed a controversial climate change accord reached in Copenhagen after all-night talks among world leaders. The agreement has drawn sharp criticism from environmentalists and poorer nations.



Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that a nonbinding climate change agreement reached with difficulty by world leaders in Copenhagen was nonetheless a real deal.



After doubts, disappointments and feelings that two weeks of climate change talks in the Danish capital were going nowhere, Mr. Ban said bringing world leaders to the table for the final stage of negotiations had paid off. He said progress had been made on four key benchmarks he had laid out in September for Copenhagen to be a success.



"All countries have agreed to work towards a common long-term goal to limit global temperature rise to below two degrees Celsius. Many governments have made important commitments to reduce or limit emissions," he said.



The so-called Copenhagen Accord is a compromise plan spearheaded by the United States and four key emerging economies - China, Brazil, India and South Africa. It sets targets to prevent the planet's average temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and outlines a plan of $100 billion in annual aid to poor nations to deal with climate change, starting in 2020.



But the accord is nonbinding. And it failed to earn universal support from the 193 nations participating at the summit, leaving the conference chair to conclude that participants merely "take note" of the deal.



Mr. Ban also said the accord only marked a beginning - with a lot of work still ahead.



"First, we need to turn this agreement into a legally binding treaty," he said. "I will work with world leaders over the coming months to make this happen. Second, we must launch the Copenhagen Green Climate fund. The UN system will work to ensure that it can immediately start to deliver immediate results to people in need and jump-start clean energy growth in developing countries.



Mr. Ban also said it was important for nations to be more ambitious in fighting climate change, noting country commitments to date fell short of what science said was needed. The Copenhagen agreement leaves lots of details undecided. It sets a January 2010 deadline for all nations to submit their emissions-cutting plans to the United Nations.

 The Copenhagen Accord, the first global agreement of the 21st century to
comprehensively influence the flow and share of natural

resources, was agreed
upon by 26 most influential countries in the wee hours of Saturday morning in
the snow drenched capital of Denmark.



The US led the pack of
architects with the BASIC four -- China, India, Brazil and South Africa (in that
serial order) -- working as sometimes reluctant and sometimes willing but always
the key partners in framing the agreement. Global warming, having given rise to
the occasion for such a framework, itself became an orphaned issue though as
most of the other 192 countries, by keeping silent, accepted that this was the
template for climate negotiations from now on.



The Accord demands
that increase in global temperatures be kept below 2 degrees on the basis of
equity. It requires global emissions as well as all national emissions peak at a
certain time but is mindful of concerns for economic development. It asks
industrialized countries, except the US, to take emission cuts in future but not
necessarily under the Kyoto Protocol.



It lays out up to US $30
billion of quick start finance
and US $100 billion starting 2020 using all the
routes of transfer possible -- private or not. It requires mitigation actions
from developing countries for the first time to be listed in an international
agreement.



The agreement, a compromise, as every head of state
characterized it, came about after hardnosed hour-long negotiations between
Obama in a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, his Chinese
counterpart Wen Jiabao. amd Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jacob Zuma, Presidents
of Brazil and South Africa, respectively, on Friday night. The rules of
multilateral engagement got rewritten as new alignments created a coterie of the
powerful that brokered deals in closed rooms: each working at the end to
preserve if not improve its immediate economic status.



The pact they
forged did cause heartburn as less powerful economies felt left out. They
complained. Angry reaction from Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela from Latin
America, Pakistan and Malaysia form Asia and Sudan from Africa ensured the
accord did not get stamped officially under the UN climate convention.




The low ambition deal was seen as a triumph of the US which defied
estimates to influence the outcome. But the negotiations also saw the Chinese
leveraging their clout in the resource rich African continent in a multilateral
forum.



On Saturday at 4:15 pm, when the meeting finally ended, even
as delegates walked out, many wondered loud had China played its cards the best,
played the good cop to get on the high table and let countries like Sudan
balance that out in public by annulling the power of the Copenhagen accord.




The meeting that led to the Copenhagen Accord was called as talks of
five countries with the larger group of 26 countries including the European and
rich country power-packs and representatives of all other country blocks -- the
Africans, the small island states and least developed countries -- were getting
logjammed.



The other developed countries had been asking for peaking
of emissions and international scrutiny of emerging economies, and the small
island states wanted to have a global target of 1.5 degrees embedded in the
document which the others were not to keen upon. As the talks got stuck, those
who mattered proved they did.



India found its place at the high
table, many in India would believe rightly so, but it was asked to book some
future costs against the seat it was filling.



The emerging four
economies, for this once, found common cause in protecting their energy base.
Their economic strength lent greater radius to their circle of influence as they
emerged the power brokers for the developing world. At the end, many would
assess, that they may have sacrificed the interests of those smaller developing
countries they rode on to enter the hallowed portals but, at least this once,
they altered the climate game.



Till now some small island countries
and some least developed countries, with their moral persuasion but economic
dependence, had played spoil sport in the G77 camp, causing heartburn to
developing economies. This time, the big four emerging economies made some
common cause with the US at the cost of smaller players in the developing
country block.



The block, always divergent and rancorous, would not
be less or more fractured than before after this shift, but it did feel the
tremors from the tectonic shift in geopolitics.



U.S-India Security Relations

Implications for China

Zhang Guihong*


















Remarkable changes have taken place in the framework
of US-India security relations in recent years. During the Cold
War, estrangement characterized the two democracies because of
India’s non-aligned policy, close relations with the erstwhile
Soviet Union and tensions with Pakistan, coupled with the US containment
policy towards the Soviet Union, and the US alliance with Pakistan.
Based on common strategic, economic and political interests after
the end of the Cold War, the US and India have moved from being
"estranged democracies"1
to "engaged democracies". Such a change is primarily
due to America’s adjustment of its strategy and policy toward
India as well as South Asia and the Asia-Pacific. The changing
US-Indian security relations will have a great impact on China’s
security environment. This paper focuses on the implications of
these changes for China from three perspectives: the emergence
of a
Sino-US-India
strategic triangle; the complicated security situation in South
Asia; and the America factor in Sino-India relations.


The increasing attention being
paid to the relationship between the Indian and the US security
apparatus – particularly over the last couple of years – is no
longer a matter that can be dismissed as mere speculation. Indeed,
after India’s five under-ground nuclear tests at Pokhran in May
1998, the US initiated a series of strict sanctions under the
aegis of the US Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Act of 1994.
The security relationship between Washington and New Delhi had
ebbed and suspicion seemed to characterize the bilateral agenda.


President Clinton’s visit to India
in March 2000, which was the fourth presidential visit in the
history of the two countries and the first in the last 22 years,
was a turning point in the ambivalent US-India relations of yesteryears.
On May 1, 2001, not long after he took office, President George
W. Bush made a speech to announce his security policy and plans
for developing a missile defence system2
India had expressed its approval of this programme earlier, and
was, indeed, seen to be even more supportive than the US’ traditional
allies. Later, in order to win India’s support in the fight against
terrorism, the US lifted its sanctions on India and the two nations
agreed to comprehensively co-operate in the field of the global
war against terrorism.3 Indeed, in
May 2002, US Special Forces were flown into India and took part
in a two-week military manoeuvre in north India, in the historical
city of Agra. This manoeuvre was the first between the two countries
in 39 years and demonstrated that their military cooperation had
reached a high level.4


What are the changes in US-India
relationship? Why are these changes occurring? What are the implications
of these changes for China’s security, and how will these affect
Sino-India relationships and Sino-US relationships? This paper
attempts to examine these questions.



US-India Relations: From Estrangement to Rapprochement



With the beginning of the Cold
War, the primary US goal with regard to countries in South Asia
was "to orient those nations toward the United States and
the other Western democracies and away from the Soviet Union."5
However, India’s geo-strategic interests and considerations were
different from those of the US.


As opposed to Pakistan, who joined
the US led BTO (Baghdad Treaty Organization, later the Central
Treaty Organization, CENTO) and SEATO (the South East Asia Treaty
Organization), India initially supported the principles of self-government
and non-alignment – resulting in its refusal to participate in
the US-led strategic alliance against the Soviet Union.


India was also opposed to the
setting up of a defensive alliance in order to contain China.
It recognized the new Communist-led government of China in December
1949, regarded Taiwan as a part of China, and criticized the US
for its official stance against the People’s Republic. In January
1951, India was the only non-Communist state that voted against
a resolution sponsored by the United States in the United Nations
(UN) General Assembly labelling China as an aggressor.6


As a third corollary, India began
to receive military, political, and economic assistance from the
erstwhile Soviet Union from the 1960’s – an alliance which brought
about further estrangement in Indo-US relations. Indeed, India
still depended on Moscow for military and political support, and
when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 – which made
the US and China stand by Pakistan’s side – India complained that
the US did not try to find a political method to resolve the Afghanistan
crisis. On the other hand, US did not punish India for its close
relationship with Soviet Union in the 1980’s.


The other important factor was
the India-Pakistan War of 1971. The US sent its Seventh Fleet
into the Bay of Bengal and this act was regarded as a threat by
India and it pushed the already ebbing Indo-US relationship to
an all-time low. By supporting Pakistan, New Delhi argued that
America had forced India into an unnecessary and costly arms race,
that American assistance gave Pakistan the means and the inspiration
to challenge New Delhi, and that the Pakistan-US relationship
came to be seen as not directed against communism, but against
India.7


During the Cold War, America’s
policy toward India was different from its policy toward the two
other big Asian nations – China and Japan. America did not include
India as its strategic alliance partner nor did it include India
as a possible containment target. And just as the United States
did not approve of India attempting to balance power between United
States and the Soviet Union, India did not endorse the United
States’ attempt to balance power between India and Pakistan. In
sum, with India implementing the policy of non-alignment, maintaining
friendly relations with the Soviet Union, and engaging Pakistan;
and, the contrasting United States’ policy of forming alliances
in order to deter the Soviet Union, made it difficult for the
US and India to work together.


With the end of the Cold War,
myriad factors began to push the United States and India to change
their relationship from estrangement to one of convergence. The
United States and India are two of the largest democracies in
the world and, furthermore, they have similar egalitarian values.
The US also hopes that India will play an active role in the process
of democratisation in Russia. Starting from the 1990s, with India
beginning to implement policies to create an open market economy,
the United States has been treating India as a newly developed
market; United States has progressively emerged as India’s greatest
source for foreign investment supplies and trading partner. Up
to 1998, it seemed that the two countries attempted to form a
new relationship that would bring them closer and engender a more
robust co-operative relationship. Even though this relationship
was damaged in 1998, when India exploded its nuclear bombs and
the Americans responding with an embargo, the relationship that
had taken off after the Cold War had not ended. Indeed, with eight
rounds of security dialogue between US Deputy Secretary of State,
Strobe Talbot, and the then Indian Foreign Minister, Jaswant Singh,
the security relationship between the two countries normalised.


During the Kargil crisis of 1999,
India successfully won sympathy and support from the US. In stark
contrast, the US initially cold-shouldered Pakistan’s new regime
when General Pervez Musharraf rode to power through a military
coup. The two situations in 1999 led United States’ South Asian
policy shift to ‘focusing on India and reducing on Pakistan.’


President Clinton’s India visit
was the first turning point in the Indo-US security relationship.
During his visit, President Clinton admitted that the US had ignored
India over the preceding 20 years and indicated that it would
end the passive impact caused by nuclear issues in future.8
In a joint communiqué which was termed ‘India-US relations:
A Vision for the 21st Century’, the Indo-US relationship
was termed a ‘continuous, constructive in political area, and
beneficial in economic arena’ style of new partnership.9
This new style of partnership, according to certain independent
analyses, was formed on the basis of both the sides deriving mutual
strategic benefits, economic benefits, and socio-political benefits.10


President George W. Bush continued
the policy after he took office. When the then Indian Foreign
Minister, Jaswant Singh, visited Washington in April 2001, Bush
told him that the new administration would continue and strengthen
its predecessor’s policy to promote bilateral relations. After
Bush declared his new Missile Defence plan on May 1, 2001, Condoleeza
Rice, then Special Assistant to the President on National Security
Affairs, broke protocol and took an initiative to call Singh and
introduce the U.S. missile defense policy to him; US Deputy Secretary
of State, Richard Armitage, also visited India in order to muster
support. This is the first time that the US has valued India as
an important partner in its strategic agenda.


The September 11, 2001, attack
and the war on terrorism that followed provided a chance for the
US and India to forge an even closer strategic cooperation. It
has become a turning point in the Indo-US security relationship.
The two countries together implemented a co-operative framework
of relationships based on three dimensions: democracy, economy,
and security. In the security field, the United States felt that
India, as a de-facto nuclear state, had co-operative potential
with the US on the proliferation issue. India actively supported
the US missile defence plan as well as that on counter-terrorism.
With the end of the US sanctions on India,11
the two countries improved and increased high level leadership
communications, military contact, and economic co-operation. On
November 9, 2001, President Bush told the visiting Indian Prime
Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, that his administration was committed
towards developing a fundamentally different relationship with
India, based upon both trust and mutual values.12
After the meeting of the two top leaders, in a joint statement
signed by both the countries, expressed their desire to enhance
bilateral co-operation in the war against terrorism, and agreed
to renew the activities of the Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism.
The Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism was established in
January 2000 as a first step towards increasing exchange and technology
co-operation in the field of defense and security.13
Thereafter, the two countries maintained a high-level contact
frequently and formulated a comprehensive co-operative agenda.
Mohammed Ayoob believes that the United States and India can begin
close co-operation in the following security arenas: (1) improve
the region’s security and stability; (2) counter terrorism; (3)
promote democracy; (4) prevent nuclear proliferation, and (5)
contain China during the first 10 years of the new century.14
As Stephen Cohen, the celebrated US specialist on South Asia security
issues has commented, the United States and India’s relationship
was ‘structurally changing’.15


However, the partnership between
the United States and India has not developed into a possibility
of creating an alliance similar to that of the US-Japan or US-UK
Alliance. The reasons are as follows:


First, India’s five nuclear tests
in 1998 greatly damaged the US-led international non-proliferation
regime. Though the United States has adjusted its non-proliferation
policy to some measure after Bush’s taking office, India’s nuclear
tests and the United State’s embargo afterward continue to have
some negative effects on the Indo-US relationship. After 9/11,
the US pressure on India to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has lessened,
although it is still to disappear. This has been perceived as
a bargaining chip for the co-operation the United States seeks
from India in its fight against terrorism.


Secondly, America realized that
India and South Asia is the "most dangerous region in the
world". In considering facts such as territorial disputes,
the ethnic and religious divergence, and the nuclear confrontation
between India and Pakistan; the need for Pakistan to support the
United States in its counter-terrorism campaign; and South Asian
and American relationships with other major countries in the region,
the United States will not create an alliance in the region with
any third country. Creating such an alliance to counter a third
party does not benefit US interests.


Thirdly, Americans and Indians
have very different views of a just international order. These
differences have led to specific Indian-American disagreements
in three important areas: the limits of humanitarian peacekeeping;
the make-up of the UN Security Council; and the emergence of China.16
Most Indians have trouble accepting the principle of humanitarian
interventions and fear that the US would extend the principle
to South Asia – which means the United States would support the
principle of ‘self-determination’ and press for a plebiscite in
Kashmir. Similarly, the United States is unwilling to accept the
Indian demand for a UN Security Council seat. Some Americans would
regard it as a ‘reward’ for India’s nuclear programme, and fear
that this would further accelerate the trend towards nuclear weapons.


Finally, India and the United
States are each groping for a strategy to cope with the emergence
of China as a major world power.17
The United States is especially concerned about China’s challenge
to its world leadership, while India is especially concerned about
China’s future relationship with Pakistan. For India, creating
or joining an alliance against China does not suit its national
interests. One Chinese scholar pointed out that if India does
not participate in the containment of China, China’s development
would lighten US strategic pressure on India. If India joins forces
with the United States to contain China, the future of the 21st
century will not belong to India.18
An Indian scholar argued that, as a developing country, India’s
priority is economic development. India has always attached the
highest value to maintaining independence in making her foreign
policy and sovereignty and avoided becoming part of an US or western
agenda towards China. The United States is also unlikely to be
willing to underwrite the costs of guaranteeing Indian security,
and it would be foolish for India to entrust her security to a
superpower with global interests. Furthermore, The United States
and India both have substantive interests in China. Both within
the United States and India, there are significant numbers of
people that believe that China is a ‘threat’ to the interests
of the two countries. Both countries also have people that advocate
close engagement.19



United States’ South Asia Policy: Beyond Balance
of Power



United States and India’s relationship
has changed in these various ways because the US has adjusted
its strategy and policy in South Asia. The adjustment is demonstrated
in the following areas:



A change in the United States
security policy towards India



In terms of non-proliferation,
the US urges India not to carry out nuclear tests, not to produce
fissile materials, not to deploy missiles with nuclear warheads,
to stop a dangerous nuclear and missile arms race and to control
the export of sensitive materials. As anti-terrorism become the
United States’ greatest concern, it has reduced the pressure on
India in the area of halting the spread of nuclear arms. In terms
of Kashmir, there is a change from supporting Pakistan’s policy
which is implementing United Nations policy of giving the residents
of Kashmir the right of plebiscite for its future to supporting
India’s policy of solving the problem through negotiation while
respecting Kashmir residents’ view. In terms of its relations
with India and with Pakistan, the United States, in accordance
with its own advantage, and comparing the power of different nations
in South Asia, has slowly changed its focus to India.


An article published in Washington
Times
, quoting the Executive Director of US–India Commercial
Committee, Michael Clark, stated that, for an American company,
the most important thing was not the rising of the Indian middle
class, but undoubtedly the information technology corporations
in India, which have extraordinary potential.20
Some scholars in China concluded that the US policy toward India
had changed from ‘paying equal attention to India and Pakistan’
in the early period of the post-Cold War era to ‘focusing on India
and reducing Pakistan’ during the Clinton administration. The
focus was once again changed to ‘raising India and curbing Pakistan’
when Bush took over and ‘regarding Pakistan while respecting India’
after the 9/11 attacks and the Enduring Freedom campaign in Afghanistan.21



United States changed its security
policy towards South Asia from balance of power to power advantage



The advantage is demonstrated
in the following manner: (1) US obtains more influence in South
Asia, compared to Russia and China; and (2) India wins the dominant
position in the Indian sub-continent, compared to the other South
Asian countries. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the eminent American strategist,
recognized India as "the strongest state in South Asia and
to some extent the regional hegemon." But at the same time,
he thought that, "as a geo-strategic player, India is not
– at least, not to the same degree as either Russia or China –
a source of geopolitical concern."22
However, this kind of judgment undervalues India’s position and
capability. The US recognizes India as the largest democracy in
the world. India’s economy increased by six per cent annually
in the 1990’s and it also has a growing information technology
industry. The United States is India’s largest trading partner,
its biggest investor and its biggest provider of advanced technology.23
Besides, Indian Americans are playing an important role in shaping
the United States’ South Asia policy.24
During his trip to South Asia in March 2000, President Clinton
visited India for seven days while halting symbolically in Pakistan
only for some hours. It is obvious that U.S. places its relationship
with India on the top of its South Asia policy framework. Compared
with Pakistan, which experiences economical trouble and political
turbulence and has only one-seventh of India’s territory, Washington
regards New Delhi as the largest democracy and a potentially important
economic partner. Nevertheless, the United States is unlikely
to discard its Cold War ally – Pakistan. Contrarily, the United
States needs Pakistani support and co-operation as an Islamic
‘frontline state’ in the war against terrorism.


In sum, against the backdrop of
the its preferential values in favour of democracy and its long-term
benefits, and the comparison of power between different countries
in South Asia, the United States changed its strategic policy
of focusing on the balance of power during the Cold War to define
and implement a new policy in South Asia: ‘Focusing on India and
Reducing on Pakistan.’ This new policy attempted to go beyond
the balance of power. However, judgments based on past traditions,
concerns regarding the anti-terrorism efforts and the dangerous
situation in South Asia, have diluted this perspective to one
within which there is a ‘focus on India while respecting Pakistan.’
Thus, despite the initial intent, the US policy has not entirely
gone beyond the balance of power.



United States changed its security
policy for the Asia-Pacific region



This is primarily demonstrated
in the United States’ increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific region
or, more accurately, in the emergence of an integrated military
strategy for the Europe-Atlantic region and the Asia-Pacific region.
India and the Indian Ocean are expected to play an important role
in such a geo-strategy. In the closing days of the Clinton administration,
the containment of China gradually increased in importance as
a factor influencing America’s Asia-Pacific strategy. In addition
to causing trouble on the Taiwan issue, the strategy of containment
included reliance on Japanese and Indian Forces, and especially
on the trend of enhancing India’s capabilities to contain China.
Giving the fact that counter-terrorism has became the primary
issue in American strategy, the United States intends to use the
war on terrorism to implement its military strategy in the Asia-Pacific
region in addition to strengthening homeland security. The US
military strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, consequently, includes
securing influence and location in Central Asia; the limiting
of Western Asia’s development; and a return to South East Asia.
Within this context, India and the Indian Ocean constitute the
bridge for the United States in its regional military strategy.



The change in United States
and India’s relationship is also affected by Pakistan, China,
and Russia



While Pakistan has attempted to
balance Indian superiority by seeking external ties, India has
perceived this as a way of upsetting the natural balance of power
in South Asia.25 For America, Pakistan’s
role in the United States’ military strategy is especially important
when America’s personal interests are in jeopardy (anti-communism,
containment of the erstwhile Soviet Union, and counter terrorism).
As Pakistan is a traditional ally of the United States and a frontline
state in fighting terrorism, without a more normal India-Pakistan
relationship, the India-US relationship will remain highly sensitive
to Indian perceptions of Washington’s relationship with Islamabad.


It is widely accepted both in
the United States and India that China is likely to pose a long-term
strategic challenge to them. How will China deal with the outer
world after it consolidates its economic and technological ascent?
There are different assumptions in the United States and India.
Some believe that the future role of China in the Asia-Pacific
region will be stable and defensive, rather than destructive and
offensive. Others assume that – based on aspects of its strategic
culture – China may undertake an offensive foreign policy at the
point of time when Chinese leaders think the international balance
of power is in their favor.26 The
United States and India have mutual interests, but different policies,
in terms the nature of their future dealings with a rising China.
There are also essential divergences on issues such as Taiwan
and human rights between China and the United States. There are
also basic differences on issues including border problems and
non-proliferation between China and India.


With the end of the Cold War,
the balance of power in South Asia has been upset, and the influence
of Russia in South Asia has weakened. Russia still maintains a
stable co-operative relationship with India, especially in the
field of defense. In the joint statement of Russia-India strategic
partnership issued on October 3, 2000, the two parties claimed
"democratization of international relations" which is
obliviously aimed at hegemonies.27
During President Putin’s three-day visit to India in early December
2002, both sides signed the Delhi Declaration on Further Consolidation
of Strategic Partnership, which heightened the bilateral relations
to a new level.28


In conclusion, based on the rise
of the Indian power, the importance of South Asia and the emergence
of an Asia-Pacific perspective, the United States has gradually
changed its balance of power policy. America is using the balance
of power (method) to secure a power advantage (goal).



U.S.-India Security Relationship and China’s
Security Environment: Opportunities and Challenges



The India-China-U.S. Triangle:
Malign Competition or Benign Interaction?



There are two defining characteristics
of the security environment in the Asia-Pacific region after the
end of Cold War: (1) The United States has become the only superpower
in the world today. It is also the most important external power
in Asia, and plays a key role in South Asian security; (2) China
and India are emerging Asian powers. Each has a population of
over a billion, possess nuclear weapons and numbers among the
fastest growing economies in the world. Relations among these
three countries will undoubtedly dominate the course of events
within the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century.
Their interactions, and how they deal with the triangle will,
to a large extent, influence future peace and stability in the
region.


China and India, the two largest
developing countries in the world, have a commonality of history,
culture, economy and social characteristics, and profiles of development.
Each applies itself to internal economic development, carries
out an independent foreign policy and strives for a peaceful international
environment. China and India are among what Brzezinski described
as "five geo-strategic players"29,
what Henry Kissinger listed as the "six big powers",30
and what Samuel Huntington31 pointed
out are "core states of seven civilizations." China
is a big power in East Asia while India is a big power in South
Asia. Each has advantages and influence in their respective regions.
However, they are not world powers that have global influence.
In terms of institution and comprehensive strength, they cannot
even be ranked as strong powers. For America, China and India,
at one end, are two emerging markets offering economic benefits
and developing opportunities. At the other end, China and India
are also two transitional countries demonstrating uncertainty,
from the United States’ strategic point of view. What Washington
fears most is the possibility of China and India, with Russia,
forming an alliance based on a common understanding and interests
of a new international political and economical order and a multi-polar
world.


The United States and India, the
largest democracies in the world, share common political values
and strategic interests. Their common geo-political, economic
and socio-political interests are advancing a co-operative agenda
(which their differences over nuclear proliferation may not be
able to halt).32 With the US–India
relationship moving forward over the past two years, the two countries
have developed a comprehensive co-operative framework covering
democracy, economy and security. The United States now pays more
attention to India’s role as the largest democracy than it did
before. India’s continuous and fast-growing economy, especially
its information technology industry, attracts great investment
from transnational corporations based in America. In the security
arena, the U.S. leadership has gradually begun to ‘forget’ India’s
nuclear tests and has come to recognize India as a de facto
nuclear power, as also its preponderant position in South
Asia. With India’s support for America’s unilateral action in
missile defense, the US and India moved from divergence to co-operation
in the field of non-proliferation. After 9/11, counter-terrorism
has been a new field of strategic co-operation for U.S. and India.
In a related development, Pakistan turns out to be less of an
‘obstacle’ for the US–India framework of relationships.


China and the United States, the
largest developing and developed countries respectively, also
have comprehensive common strategic interests. Besides large potential
economic cooperation, they also share broad interests in other
fields such as regional stability and the role and reform of the
United Nations.


What is more likely is the emergence
of a "soft balance of power" system among the three
countries.33 Alternately, at one
end, a vicious competitive relationship among the three countries
may emerge, and the "soft balance of power" may be changed
into a "hard balance of power" similar to that in the
Cold War era, if one of them regards the development of relations
between the two other countries as a challenge to its national
interests, or if any two in this triad forge a relationship as
a means to contain the third country. At the other end, it is
possible for China, the US and India to establish a relatively
harmonious relationship if they can seek out common views and
interests, and push their differences aside to deal with bilateral
and trilateral relations within a strategic perspective.



South Asian security and China’s
security environment: stability or instability?



South Asia is one of the most
unstable regions in world today. Focusing on the Kashmir issue,
the conflict between India and Pakistan has lasted for more than
half a century, during which three wars have been fought. The
Kashmir issue includes many conflicting factors: territorial dispute,
ethnic and religious divergence, political opposition and nuclear
confrontation. One can also find in the Kashmir issue three threats
for today’s world: national separatism, religious extremism and
cross-border terrorism. India and, immediately thereafter, Pakistan
tested their nuclear weapons and then became de facto nuclear
powers in the year 1998. The United States has initiated a counter-terrorism
campaign after 9/11, which focuses substantially on this region.
These various elements are new factors in the conflict over Kashmir
between India and Pakistan.


Nuclear proliferation in South Asia
makes the Kashmir issue more dangerous. According to the assessment
of the Institute for Science and International Security, if all
of the plutonium available to it is made into nuclear weapons,
India can produce 45-95 warheads; while if all of the plutonium
and weapon-grade uranium available to Pakistan is converted to
nuclear weapons, this could produce 30-50 warheads.34
A May 2002 report published in The New Scientist pointed
out that, if a limited nuclear war were to break out between India
and Pakistan, 10 small warheads used in the five biggest cities
of each of these countries, respectively, would kill three million
people and injure even more.35 The
international community at large fears that a war between the
two nuclear countries could open a

Pandora’s box and lead to the world’s first
nuclear war.


The struggle against terrorism
makes the Kashmir issue even more complicated. After 9/11, India
has sought increasingly and far more vigorously to establish the
connections between terrorism and Pakistan. India has condemned
the two Pakistan-based groups, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed,
that led the terrorist attack on India’s Parliament on December
13, 2001, and that are also responsible for cross-border terrorist
activities. Pakistan, on the other hand, actively works with the
United States in the military campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan
and claims that it is opposed to any fundamentalist organization
or individuals who engage in terrorist activity in the name of
Kashmir at home or abroad. However, President Musharraf has also
declared that Pakistan would continue to support the Kashmiri
struggle for independence ‘morally, politically and diplomatically’.


In conclusion, nuclear tests and
counter-terrorism make South Asia an international hotspot and
a focus of global attention. In terms of non-proliferation and
anti-terrorism, China and the South Asian countries share common
interests and a potential for co-operation. China borders most
South Asian countries. Regional stability in South Asia is, consequently,
an important guarantee for China’s west and southwest security
environment. China hopes that both India and Pakistan will try
to solve their problems by political and diplomatic means. China’s
President, Jiang Zemin, recently made mention of an old Chinese
saying, ‘peace favours both and conflict injures either’, when
he attended the First Summit of the Member States of the Conference
on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA)36
which was convened in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on June 3-5, 2002.



The America factor in Sino-India
relationships: positive or passive?



India, in the assessment of one
Indian scholar, has always viewed close US-China relations with
misgivings and feared that they might adversely affect her interests.37
Three factors dominate this evaluation: (1) During the 1971 India-Pakistan
war, the US and China jointly supported Pakistan. The US had sent
its Seventh Fleet into the Bay of Bengal to threaten India. (2)
In India’s perception, the United States was guilty by omission
of ignoring China’s actions in actively building up Pakistan’s
nuclear deterrence against India through the nineteen eighties,
because both China and Pakistan were US allies in fighting the
Soviet Union in Afghanistan. (3) Soon after India’s nuclear tests
in 1998, the United States and China issued a Joint Communiqué
to condemn these.38


In comparison to the up-and-down
Sino-U.S. relationship framework, the US-India relationship has
witnessed an upswing after the end of the Cold War. The perception
that regards an ‘emerging China’ as a threat is beginning to dominate
policy-making circles in both the US and India. This will be harmful
for both Sino-US and Sino-India relations. For America, China
and India are two major powers that can influence security affairs
in the Asia-Pacific, especially in East Asia and South Asia. China
and India are also populous, transitional and emerging big powers.
Both China and India regards their relations with the US as their
most important external relationship.


The economic development of China
and India needs America’s cooperation and support. At the same
time, America needs the huge markets of the two big Asian countries.
The United States could be a positive factor for Sino-India relationships
– if it tries to promote regional stability in South Asia and
help China and India’s economic modernization. It could, as well,
cast itself in a negative role – when it plays the ‘India card’
in its dealings with China; or plays the ‘China card’ in developing
its relations with India.


Within China, in recent years,
there has been a fundamental reassessment of South Asia and its
importance in geo-politics, as well as of India and its role in
regional affairs. The nature of Sino-Indian relationships should
be "good neighbors in geo-politics, good friends in economic
cooperation, and good partners in international affairs."39
Such a relationship must be established on the basis of their
common sense and understanding of mutual interests. Through economic
co-operation and regional stability, China, the US and India should
and would be able to reach a ‘win-win-win’ situation.





NOTES








*

Zhang Guihong is Deputy Director
and Associate Professor at the Hangzhou-based Institute of
International Studies of Zhejiang University, and a Doctoral
candidate at the Center for American Studies of Fudan University.
He is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Henry L. Stimson
Center in Washington, D.C., conducting research on "US
security policy towards India and Pakistan after 9/11 and
its implications for China".


  1. Dennis Kux, India and the
    United States: Estranged Democracies, 1941-1991
    , Washington,
    D. C.: National Defense University Press, 1993.
  2. See "Bush tears up missile
    treaty", www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/05/02/wbush02.xml.

  3. In a memorandum to the Secretary
    of State from Camp David, the U.S. President, George W. Bush,
    said the continuation of the punitive measures "would not
    be in the national security interests of the United States."
    See "U.S. lifts sanctions against India, Pak", The
    Hindu
    , Chennai, September 24, 2001.

  4. Combined air-ground exercises
    were held in Agra in May and in Alaska in September-October
    2002. Further, air transport exercise was conducted in Agra
    in October 2002. For details see, "Military Exercises:
    Waltzing with arms", The Week, Kochi, November 10,
    2002. Also available at www.the-week.com/22nov10/events2.htm.

  5. Robert J. McMahon, The Cold
    War on the Periphery: The United States, India, and Pakistan,
    1947-1965
    , New York: Columbia University Press, 1994, p.
    17.

  6. M. Srinivas Chary, The Eagle
    and the Peacock: U.S. Foreign Policy Toward India Since Independence
    ,
    Westport, Conn: Greenwood Press, 1995, pp. 74- 84.

  7. Stephen P. Cohen, India
    and America: An Emerging Relationship
    , A paper presented
    at the Conference on "The Nation-State System and Transnational
    Forces in South Asia", December 8-10, 2000, Kyoto, Japan.

  8. Opening statement by President
    Clinton in the Joint Press Conference held in Delhi, March 21,
    2000.
  9. India-U.S. Relations: A Vision
    for the 21st Century. For full text of the communiqué,
    see www.indianembassy.org/indusrel/clinton_india/joint_india_us_statement_mar_21_2000.htm.

  10. Kanti Bajpai, "India-US
    Foreign Policy Concerns: Cooperation and Conflict" in Gary
    K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut, and Anupam Srivastava, eds., Engaging
    India: US Strategic Relations with the World’s Largest Democracy
    ,
    New York: Routledge, 1999, p. 194.

  11. See President Waives Sanctions
    on India, Pakistan, September 22, 2001, www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010922-4.html.

  12. Remarks by the U.S. President
    Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee at the White House, Washington,
    DC, November 9, 2001, www.indianembassy.org/indusrel/2001/vajpayee_bush_nov_9_01.htm.
  13. Joint Statement Between the
    United States of America and the Republic of India, November
    9, 2001, www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/11/20011109-10.html.

  14. Mohammed Ayoob, "India
    Matters", The Washington Quarterly, Cambridge, MA,
    Winter 2000, vol. 23, no. 1, p. 29.

  15. Cohen, "India and
    America: An Emerging Relationship
    ".

  16. Ibid.



  17. Ibid.



  18. Zhang Wenmu, "Global
    Geopolitics and India’s Future Security", Zhan Lue
    Yu Guan Li Strategy and Management
    , June 2001,
    pp.43-52. Author’s own translation.



  19. Venu Rajamony, India-China-U.S.
    Triangle: A ‘Soft’ Balance of Power System in the Making
    ,
    Center for Strategic and International Studies Report, Washington,
    D.C., March 2002, p. 40. See www.csis.org/saprog/venu.pdf.

  20. Jasmin Fischer, "After
    Cold War, India, U.S. find common ground", The Washington
    Times
    , August 7, 1999.

  21. Ma Jiali, "The Adjustment
    of U.S. Policy toward South Asia after Sept 11" Nan
    Ya Yan Jiou (South Asia Study)
    vol. 2, 2001; Jiang Yili,
    "Why does Pakistan–U.S. Relationship get more estrangements"
    Dong Dai Ya Tai (Contemporary Asia Pacific), vol. 10,
    2001. Author’s own translation.

  22. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The
    Grand Chessboard: American Primary and its Geostrategic Imperatives
    ,
    Chinese language edition, Shanghai: Shanghai People’s Publishing
    House, 1998, p. 61; see also, the English Edition, New York:
    Basic Books, 1997, p. 46.

  23. Bajpai, "India-US Foreign
    Policy Concerns", p. 198.

  24. Robert Hathaway, "Unfinished
    Passage: India, Indian American and the U.S. Congress",
    Washington Quarterly, Cambridge, MA, Spring 2001, vol.
    24, no. 2, pp. 21-34.

  25. Milind Thakar, "Coping
    with Insecurity: The Pakistani Variable in Indo-US Relations"
    in Gary K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut and Anupam Srivastava, eds.,
    Engaging India: US Strategic Relations with the World’s Largest
    Democracy
    , New York: Routledge, 1999, p. 223.

  26. Amitabh Mattoo, "Shadow
    of the Dragon: Indo-US Relations and China" in Gary K.
    Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut and Anupam Srivastava, eds., Engaging
    India: US Strategic Relations with the World’s Largest Democracy
    ,
    New York: Routledge, 1999, pp.217-8.
  27. Declaration on Strategic Partnership
    between Republic of India and the Russian Federation, October
    3, 2000. See http://meadev.nic.in/speeches/declaration-3oct2000.htm.

  28. For full text of the Declaration,
    see South Asia Terrorism Portal; India; Documents; Delhi Declaration
    on Further Consolidation of Strategic Partnership between the
    Republic of India and the Russian Federation. www.satp.org.

  29. Brzezinski identifies five
    "key geostrategic players" that are actively pursuing geopolitical
    interests (such as greater regional hegemony), which might conflict
    with the interests of the United States: France, Germany, Russia,
    China, and India. See his The Grand Chessboard: American
    Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives
    , New York: Basic
    Books, 1997.

  30. Henry A. Kissinger, Diplomacy,
    New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994, p. 23.

  31. See Samuel Huntington, The
    Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
    ,
    New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996.

  32. Kanti Bajpai, "India-US
    Foreign Policy Concerns: Cooperation and Conflict", in
    Gary K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut, and Anupam Srivastava eds.,
    Engaging India---US Strategic Relations with the World’s
    Largest Democracy
    , New York: Routledge, 1999, p. 194.

  33. Rajamony, India-China-U.S.
    Triangle,
    p. 8.
  34. http://www.isis-online.org/

  35. "Three million would
    die in "limited" nuclear war over Kashmir," www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992326.

  36. The 16 member states of the CICA are Afghanistan,
    Azerbaijan, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Mongolia,
    Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Palestine, Tajikistan, Turkey
    and Uzbekistan.

  37. Rajamony, India-China-U.S.
    Triangle
    , p. 37.
  38. Ibid, pp. 37-39.

  39. Ma Jiali, Focusing on India-A
    Rising Power
    , Tianjing: Tianjing People’s Publishing House,
    2002, p. 222. Author’s own translation.
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume14/article2.htm
Climate leaders: The rhetoric vs the reality
COPENHAGEN:
They had been urged to side with the angels but ultimately, base political
instinct seems to have prevailed among the world's most
powerful leaders as they
sealed a climate
pact among themselves, sparking fury elsewhere.




From the eve of the 12-day marathon right until its finale, the
overwhelming message in Copenhagen was that it was time to put aside national
self-interest for the greater good of saving the planet for future generations.




But a survey of the wreckage from the negotiations indicated that
none of the world's economic powerhouses was willing to make the leap of faith.




Instead, they opted for a lowest common denominator accord -- devoid
of targets for greenhouse-gas emissions cuts and not legally binding.




Nnimmo Bassey, chair of Friends of the Earth International, said a
delay in wide-ranging action to limit emissions had "condemned millions of the
world's poorest people to hunger, suffering and loss of life."





















Also Read
 → Investors give cautious thumbs up to climate deal
 → UN climate talks acknowledge Copenhagen accord
 → Copenhagen, RIP: Time to look beyond climate summit
 → For common man, climate disaster still his neighbour’s problem




An editorial published
in 56 newspapers around the world as the gathering kicked off nearly a fortnight
earlier, invoked Abraham Lincoln by imploring the leaders to embrace "the better
angels of our nature".



"The politicians in Copenhagen have the power
to shape history's judgment on this generation: one that saw a challenge and
rose to it, or one so stupid that we saw calamity coming but did nothing to
avert it."



In their speeches from the floor, many of the leaders
spoke of their encounters with school pupils or name-checked grandchildren.




"When I arrive home at the end of this week, will I be able to sit
down, look my children in the eyes and tell them in clear conscience that I did
absolutely everything I could to achieve an outcome to tackle climate change?"
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd asked rhetorically.



US
President Barack Obama likewise urged his peers to be "part of a historic
endeavor -- one that makes life better for our children and our grandchildren."












Tip of a new climate order

A weak deal plus a model with US and India role










NATURE’S
REMINDER: From the climate storm in Copenhagen, Barack Obama landed in
a blizzard in Washington on Saturday. The snowstorm forced Obama to
ride in a motorcade, instead of taking a helicopter, to the White
House. AFP picture shows snowflakes falling on the White House.














Dec. 19: The
world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluters have crafted and proposed a
new “accord”, signalling a controversial shift in climate change
politics that many countries have rejected.





India
and China were part of a dramatic meeting seized upon by President
Barack Obama to set the stage for “the Copenhagen Accord” — a
non-binding political pact. But the two countries later desisted from
formally associating themselves with the text that has only been “taken
note of” at the Copenhagen summit, reflecting the bitter opposition
from smaller countries.





The
public posture did not prevent analysts — and some critics — from
suggesting that India and China had become part of what looked like an
emerging global climate order, almost breaking ranks with their
traditional allies in the G77 developing countries group, including
African and small island countries, to join America in efforts to find
ways to tackle the climate challenge.





The
“new order” appeared to portend a diminishing role for the UN and
underscore the vulnerability of a consensus-dependent process the world
body has been following so far.





The
principal negotiations took place among about 30 countries and the
accord “breakthrough” involved just five — the US, China, Brazil, South
Africa and India. These countries account for almost 60 per cent of
global pollution.





That
grouping whittled down to the largest economies, a climate negotiating
group reminiscent of the Major Economies Forum originally convened by
former President George W. Bush as a parallel track to the UN talks.





“I
don’t think it’s the end of the UN’s climate role but it’s a new model
inside of it,” Jennifer Morgan, the director of the World Resource
Institute’s climate and energy programme, told Reuters.





She
“absolutely” supported the role of heads of government. The
eleventh-hour meeting attended by Obama, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
and the leaders of China, Brazil and South Africa had provided the
decisive thrust.





“I
think that’s the story of this conference. Heads of state came in and
crafted a deal a bit independently of the UN process,” she said.





But
others said any scaling down of the UN’s role was “not correct from an
equity or from an environmental point of view” because that would
exclude many countries “already on the front lines of impacts of
climate change”. Several developing countries vehemently supported the
role of the UN, exactly because it preserved their voice.





The
sharpest opposition emerged from a section of developing countries
objecting to the document’s goal of holding down the rise in the
average global temperature to below 2°C. These countries, including the
small island states, believe even a 1.5-degree rise would be
catastrophic. The Copenhagen Accord, labelled a “bare minimum” by
critics, articulates the need for multiple sets of actions to fight
climate change and is expected to drive future talks to give it a legal
form.





Leaders
and delegations from about 190 countries were sharply divided over the
accord’s content and the manner in which it was produced. The divisions
forced the Chair to declare that the parties would “take note” of the
document.





India tightrope walk





India’s
role reflected its tightrope walk in the face of conflicting pulls from
the reality of pollution and domestic pressures that tend to label any
shift a “sellout”.





On
Friday noon, the country’s special envoy on climate change, Shyam
Saran, had expressed dissatisfaction that India and China had not been
invited to be part of the consultative group to produce the text.





But
matters changed quickly after Obama had a dramatic meeting with the
leaders of India, China, Brazil and South Africa (the BASIC group),
asking them to join the document-crafting process.





“The
BASIC countries have worked out the political agreement with the
industrialised countries — President Obama played the bridge between us
and the European countries,” environment minister Jairam Ramesh said
close to midnight in Copenhagen.





He
indicated that India and the other countries had largely agreed with
America on the issue of scrutiny of domestic emission-curbing actions
in exchange for funding support.





Ramesh,
however, avoided responding to questions about how India stood in
relation to the African and small island countries. Minutes later, G77
representative Lumumba Di-Aping rejected the accord.





“We
are not part of any such political agreement -- in fact, nobody has
shown us the document yet. We cannot be a party to any document that
will allow us a 2-degree rise as that will put our existence in
jeopardy” Di-Aping told The Telegraph in Copenhagen.





Asked
whether India and China had betrayed the G77, Di-Aping said the group
would not break but those who were part of such an agreement “would
repent”.





As
nation after nation spoke in favour of or against the accord, India
remained quiet. However, when the Danish Prime Minister wanted the
agreement placed in the house on behalf of the countries who prepared
it, India’s envoy backed out, citing a technicality.





Subsequently,
when the time came to put up the names of countries supporting the
accord in an annexure, India desisted, not wanting to be bracketed
publicly with the biggest polluters like the US and China.





“Overnight,
from a leader of G77, it turned into an ally of America and the
developed countries but still does not want to show itself as being in
that company,” said Chandra Bhushan of the non-government Centre for
Science and Environment.





But
other climate policy analysts feel India has done no wrong by helping
craft a document that is in any case not legally binding. “I think the
BASIC countries have played their card well in a difficult situation —
keeping in mind the opinion of other G77 developing countries,” said T.
Jayaraman, a climate policy analyst at the Tata Institute of Social
Sciences, Mumbai.





A
key contentious issue was whether the Kyoto Protocol -- which imposes
emission cuts only on developed countries -- would be replaced by a new
treaty.





“The
Kyoto Protocol is still in danger, but the language of the Copenhagen
Accord has preserved references to the Kyoto Protocol,” said Jayaraman.





“What
this means is that negotiations in the coming months are likely to be
as tough as they were in Copenhagen,” said an energy policy expert.









Top
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091220/jsp/frontpage/story_11888740.jsp










No-drama Obama? Not this time
























Dec. 19: A
dramatic entry by Barack Obama into a room where the US President found
no chair for himself but four probably startled heads of government set
the stage for the “political accord” in Copenhagen.





The
jury is still out on who were more taken aback: Obama or the room’s
four occupants — Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao (China)
and Presidents Jacob Zuma (South Africa) and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
(Brazil).





It
is not clear whether Obama barged into the room to break up the “secret
meeting” among the four nations or he turned up for a bilateral meeting
with Wen and found to his surprise parleys were already going on among
the four developing countries.





According
to a last-ditch schedule drawn up by the US team after almost giving up
on a deal, Obama was supposed to meet Wen and then the three other
leaders jointly. But the way the events unfolded, it appeared that the
Chinese, Brazilian, Indian and South African leaders wanted to meet
Obama together, rather than in separate sessions.





Manmohan
Singh had either reached the airport to fly back to India or was about
to leave his hotel when word was passed on that Obama wanted to take
one more shot at an accord.





Sergio
Serra, Brazil’s senior climate negotiator here, confirmed that the US
President had joined the meeting of Brazilian, Indian, Chinese and
other officials. But he did not say that Obama had walked in uninvited
to the room at Bella Centre, the venue of the summit.












The
US President had met Wen privately once. But Wen did not attend two
smaller, impromptu meetings during the day that Obama and US officials
conducted with leaders of other world powers, an apparent snub that
infuriated the Americans and the Europeans.





The two sides then scheduled the bilateral meeting that eventually became a multilateral event.





Obama,
while entering the room with secretary of state Hillary Clinton, said:
“Can I join you now? Are you ready to talk to me or do you need more
time? I can go back and come again.”





He
was told by the leaders that he was welcome to join them which Obama
did, although at one point he threatened to walk out if no deal was
reached. There, the final stages of the agreement came together,
sources close to the talks said, with Obama discussing specifics.





Later,
a US official said: “The only surprise we had, in all our history
was... that in that room it wasn’t just the Chinese having a meeting...
but all four countries we had been trying to arrange meetings (with).…
The President’s viewpoint was, ‘I wanted to see them all and now is our
chance’.”





The
Chinese told the White House that it was going to be a bilateral
meeting and did not give an impression that all these leaders were also
in the same room, a US official said.





“The
President’s viewpoint was ‘I’m going to make one last run’. When it
appeared we couldn’t get the Chinese earlier in the day, the President
said ‘Well, if we can’t get the Chinese then let’s get the next three
(India, South Africa and Brazil) that are working as a team. They’ve
got similar interests, there’s no doubt about that’,” the official said.





“We
weren’t crashing a meeting. We were going for our bilateral meeting. We
found the other (India, South Africa and Brazil) people there,” a US
official said, referring to suggestions that the Americans had got wind
of the “secret meeting” and did not want to be left out.





When Obama entered the room, there was no chair for him. Obama himself was reported as saying that there weren’t any seats.





Obama said, “No, no, don’t worry, I am going to go sit by my friend Lula,” and said, “Hey, Lula.”





He walked over, moved a chair and sat down next to Lula. Clinton sat next to him.





The meeting started at 7pm local time and concluded at 8.15-8.20pm (about 12.45-12.50am in India on Saturday).





An
American official later said: “I will assume that their meeting was to
get their ducks in a row. Because at this point, certainly, our
impression was that a number of these people were either at or on the
way to the airport.”





The
Chinese team, which had been initially reluctant about the meeting, had
told White House officials that most of the team were already at the
airport while Wen was in his hotel, getting ready to leave, the US
official said.





When
they called the Indian team, the US officials were apparently told that
Singh was already at the airport. This was around 4pm local time
(8.30pm Indian time on Friday). Another version said Singh was about to
leave his hotel but turned back after receiving the call. Indian
sources said a call also came from a top UN official.





“When
they (White House officials) called Brazil, they were told there would
be no meeting without India as they knew that Singh was on his way
back. Zuma agreed as he did not have the latest information about
Singh,” a US official said.





“Brazil
told us they did not know if they could come because they wanted the
Indians to come. The Indians were at the airport. Zuma was under the
impression that everybody was coming,” the US official added. “When
Zuma came to know that Singh was at the airport, he also backed out of
the meeting. He said: ‘If they (India and Brazil) are not coming, I
can’t do this’.”





The
White House then received a call from the Chinese team that Wen wanted
to move the bilateral meeting from 6.15pm (10.45pm in India) to 7pm
local time (11.30pm in India).





Obama,
who was personally involved in all this, agreed to the Chinese request
and went into a huddle with European leaders, which lasted about 45
minutes.





At
the “accidental” five- nation meeting, Prime Minister Singh told Obama
that international review of voluntary mitigation action was
unacceptable as he was answerable to Parliament. Any international
review of India’s voluntary mitigation actions would go against public
opinion, he said.





Wen
also had similar views, while Lula voiced concerns over imposition of
trade barriers on developing countries under the garb of environment
protection.





Obama
told them that the US recognised the development challenges of the
countries and wanted to be a partner and not an impediment to their
progress.





The
group stuck to its stand on review of voluntary mitigation action,
which it said would be an intrusion on members’ sovereignty.





The
talks then veered to formulation and words to be used to reach an
agreement. After some rounds of talk, the leaders agreed on having
“international consultations” on the line of WTO talks as the accepted
phrase.








Top
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091220/jsp/nation/story_11888428.jsp

China praises Copenhagen's international climate talks' outcome as 'significant and positive'

























EIJING (AP) — China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases,
lauded Sunday the outcome of a historic U.N. climate conference that
ended with a nonbinding agreement that urges major polluters to make
deeper emissions cuts — but does not require it.

The
international climate talks that brought more than 110 leaders together
in Copenhagen produced "significant and positive" results, Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi said.

Disputes between rich and poor
countries and between the world's biggest carbon polluters — China and
the United States — dominated the two-week conference. Tens of
thousands of protesters took to the streets to demand action to cool an
overheating planet.

The meeting ended Saturday after a 31-hour
negotiating marathon, with delegates accepting a U.S.-brokered
compromise. The so-called Copenhagen Accord gives billions of dollars
in climate aid to poor nations but does not require the world's major
polluters to make deeper cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel defended the much-criticized outcome as
a first step that paves the way for action. Merkel was quoted Sunday as
telling the Bild am Sonntag newspaper that "Copenhagen is a first step
toward a new world climate order — no more, but also no less."


Merkel said that "anyone who just badmouths Copenhagen now is engaging
in the business of those who are applying the brakes rather than moving
forward."

Yang said the positive outcomes of the conference
were that it upheld the principle of "common but differentiated
responsibilities" recognized by the Kyoto Protocol, and made a step
forward in promoting binding emissions cuts for developed countries and
voluntary mitigating actions by developing countries.


"Developing and developed countries are very different in their
historical emissions responsibilities and current emissions levels, and
in their basic national characteristics and development stages," Yang
said in a statement. "Therefore, they should shoulder different
responsibilities and obligations in fighting climate change."


He said the conference also created a consensus on key issues such as
long-term global emissions reduction targets, funding and technology
support to developing countries, and transparency. He did not go into
details.

"The Copenhagen conference is not a destination but a new beginning," Yang said.


China has said it will rein in its greenhouse gas output, pledging to
reduce its carbon intensity — its use of fossil fuels per unit of
economic output — by 40 to 45 percent.

The Copenhagen Accord
emerged principally from President Barack Obama's meeting with Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao and the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa.
But the agreement was protested by several nations that demanded deeper
emissions cuts by the industrialized world.

Its key elements,
with no legal obligation, were that richer nations will finance a $10
billion-a-year, three-year program to fund poorer nations' projects to
deal with drought and other impacts of climate change, and to develop
clean energy.

A goal was also set to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 for the same adaptation and mitigation purposes.


In a U.S. concession to China and other developing nations, text was
dropped from the declaration that would have set a goal of reducing
global emissions by 50 percent by 2050. Developing nations thought that
would hamper efforts to raise their people from poverty.



http://www.fox40.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-climate,0,2911325.story


















Copenhagen Accord: half-baked text and unclear substance - WWF





The UN climate talks in Copenhagen have ended with a weak Accord
being accepted by most parties, but the present ambition is far too low
to tackle dangerous climate change, WWF said today.



"Copenhagen was at the brink of failure due to poor leadership
combined with an unconvincing level of ambition", said Kim Carstensen,
Leader of WWF's Global Climate Initiative.



WWF analysed the conference outcome against 10 performance criteria,
finding that none of the objectives needed to fulfil the aim of keeping
average global warming below the 2 degree C high risk level had been
met, although some had
been partly fulfilled.



"Well meant but half-hearted pledges to protect our planet from
dangerous climate change are simply not sufficient to address a crisis
that calls for completely new ways of collaboration across rich and
poor countries," said Mr Carstensen.



"Millions of lives, hundreds of billions of dollars and a wealth of
lost opportunities lie in the difference between rhetoric and reality
on climate change action."



Politicians around the world seem to be in agreement that we must
stay below the 2 degree C threshold of unacceptable risks of climate
change - in theory. However, practically what leaders have put on the
table adds up to 3 degrees C of warming or more, according to WWF
estimates.



Attention will now shift to follow up negotiations which need to
fill out many details in the often vague accord - and, on a more
positive note, to a host of initiatives by countries, cities, companies
and communities that are starting to build low carbon economies from
the base up.



The draft Copenhagen Accord is a long way from developing into a
legally binding framework for decisive action on climate change.



"We needed a treaty now and at best, we will be working on one in half a year's time," said Carstensen.



"What we have after two years of negotiation is a half-baked text of
unclear substance. None of the political obstacles to effective climate
action have been solved with the possible exception of the beginnings
of financial flows.



The lack of clarity is illustrated by a call for a global peak in
emissions "as soon as possible", in contrast to the 2007 call of the
IPCC for emissions to peak in 2017.



Emissions reductions pledges remain far lower than what is required,
with a leaked analysis by the UNFCCC secretariat showing a shortfall
that would lead to 3 degrees C of warming even without considering
extensive loopholes.



"We are disappointed but the story continues," said Carstensen.
"Civil society was excluded from these final negotiations to an
extraordinary degree, and that was felt during the concluding days in
Copenhagen."



"We can assure the world, however, that WWF and other elements of
civil society will continue engaging in every step of further
negotiations."

http://wwf.org.au/news/copenhagen-accord-half-baked-text-and-unclear-substance-wwf/














First Posted: 12-18-09 10:02 PM   |   Updated: 12-19-09 02:07 AM










What's Your Reaction?




















































































***Click here to read the document released to the media***



Here is what's known about the broad, nonbinding accord reached by
the U.S., China, India, Brazil, South Africa and several other
countries at the U.N. climate talks – along with current elements in
place earlier:



Greenhouse gas emissions




The
deal does not commit any nation to emissions cuts beyond a general
acknowledgment that global temperatures should be held along the lines
agreed to by leading nations in July. There are no overall emissions
targets for rich countries.



The already agreed-upon emissions cuts fall far short of action
needed to avoid potentially dangerous effects of climate change. These
cuts are to be made by 2020:



_U.S., a 17 percent reduction from 2005 levels (or 3-4 percent from 1990 levels).



_China, a cut of 40 to 45 percent below "business as usual," that
is, judged against 2005 figures for energy used versus economic output.



_India, 20 to 25 percent cut from 2005 levels



_European Union, 20 percent cut from 1990, and possibly 30 percent.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/18/copenhagen-accord-details_n_397879.html


Obama forges semblence of an accord

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Low targets, goals dropped: Copenhagen ends in failure




Deal thrashed out at talks condemned as climate change scepticism in action
































Barack Obama as he walks through the press conference room at the Bella Centre

Onlookers
stretch to shake the hand of the US president, Barack Obama, as he
walks through the press conference room at the Bella centre.
Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images




The
UN climate summit reached a weak outline of a global agreement in
Copenhagen tonight, falling far short of what Britain and many poor
countries were seeking and leaving months of tough negotiations to come.

After
eight draft texts and all-day talks between 115 world leaders, it was
left to Barack Obama and Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, to broker a
political agreement. The so-called Copenhagen accord "recognises" the
scientific case for keeping temperature rises to no more than 2C but
does not contain commitments to emissions reductions to achieve that
goal.

American officials spun the deal as a "meaningful agreement", but even Obama said: "This progress is not enough."

"We have come a long way, but we have much further to go," he added.

Gordon Brown hailed the night as a success on five out of six measures.

In
a press conference held after the talks broke up, Brown said the
agreement was a "vital first step" and accepted there was a lot more
work to do to get assurances it would become a legally binding
agreement. He declined to call it a "historic" conference: "This is the
first step we are taking towards a green and low carbon future for the
world, steps we are taking together. But like all first steps, the
steps are difficult and they are hard."

"I know what we rally need is a legally binding treaty as quickly as possible."

The deal was brokered between China,
South Africa, India, Brazil and the US, but late last night it was
unclear whether it would be adopted by all 192 countries in the full
plenary session. The deal aims to provide $30bn a year for poor
countries to adapt to climate change from next year to 2012, and $100bn a year by 2020.

But
it disappointed African and other vulnerable countries which had been
holding out for deeper emission cuts to hold the global temperature
rise to 1.5C this century. As widely expected, all references to 1.5C
in past drafts were removed at the last minute, but more surprisingly,
the earlier 2050 goal of reducing global CO2 emissions by 80% was also dropped.

The
agreement also set up a forestry deal which is hoped would
significantly reduce deforestation in return for cash. It lacked the
kind of independent verification of emission reductions by developing
countries that the US and others demanded.

Obama hinted that
China was to blame for the lack of a substantial deal. In a press
conference he condemned the insistence of some countries to look
backwards to previous environmental agreements. He said developing
countries should be "getting out of that mindset, and moving towards
the position where everybody recognises that we all need to move
together".

This was a not-so-veiled reference to the row over
whether to ditch the Kyoto protocol and its legal distinction between
developed and developing countries. Developing nations saw this as an
attempt by the rich world to wriggle out of its responsibility for
climate change. Many observers blamed the US for coming to the talks
with an offer of just 4% emissions cuts on 1990 levels. The final text
made no obligations on developing countries to make cuts.

Negotiators
will now work on individual agreements such as forests, technology, and
finance – but, without strong leadership, the chances are that it will
take years to complete.

Obama cast his trip as a sign of renewed
US global leadership: "The time has come for us to get off the
sidelines and shape the future that we seek; that is why I came to
Copenhagen."

But the US president also said he would not be staying for the final vote "because of weather constraints in Washington".

Lumumba
Di-Aping, chief negotiator for the G77 group of 130 developing
countries, said the deal had "the lowest level of ambition you can
imagine. It's nothing short of climate change scepticism in action. It
locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever. Obama has eliminated
any difference between him and Bush."

John Sauven, executive
director of Greenpeace UK, said: "The city of Copenhagen is a crime
scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport. Ed
Miliband [UK climate change secretary] is among the very few that come
out of this summit with any credit." It is now evident that beating
global warming will require a radically different model of politics
than the one on display here in Copenhagen."

Lydia Baker of Save
the Children said world leaders had "effectively signed a death warrant
for many of the world's poorest children. Up to 250,000 children from
poor communities could die before the next major meeting in Mexico at
the end of next year."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-deal


Is the Copenhagen Accord a meaningful agreement?




Paul Woodward, Online Correspondent


  • Last Updated: December 20. 2009 2:49PM UAE / December 20. 2009 10:49AM GMT





As
two weeks of contentious negotiations on tackling climate change
concluded with the declaration of the Copenhagen Accord - which the US
President Barack Obama described as a "meaningful" agreement - it was
unclear in what sense the accord actually constituted an agreement.

"The
climate deal reached between US, China and other great powers on Friday
night is so vague, hastily hatched and non-binding President Obama
isn't even sure he'll be required to sign it," Politico reported.

"
'You know, it raises an interesting question as to whether technically
there's actually a signature... It's not a legally binding agreement, I
don't know what the protocols are,' said a bleary-eyed Obama, before
hopping in Air Force One for the trip back to Washington."

As The New York Times noted: "The three-page accord
that Mr Obama negotiated with the leaders of China, India, Brazil and
South Africa and then presented to the conference did not meet even the
modest expectations that leaders set for this meeting, notably by
failing to set a 2010 goal for reaching a binding international treaty
to seal the provisions of the accord.

"Nor does the plan firmly
commit the industrialised nations or the developing nations to firm
targets for midterm or long-term greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
The accord is nonetheless significant in that it codifies the
commitments of individual nations to act on their own to tackle global
warming.

" 'For the first time in history,' Mr Obama said, 'all
major economies have come together to accept their responsibility to
take action to confront the threat of climate change.'

"The
accord provides a system for monitoring and reporting progress toward
those national pollution-reduction goals, a compromise on an issue over
which China bargained hard. It calls for hundreds of billions of
dollars to flow from wealthy nations to those countries most vulnerable
to a changing climate. And it sets a goal of limiting the global
temperature rise to 2C above preindustrial levels by 2050, implying
deep cuts in climate-altering emissions over the next four decades.

"But
it was an equivocal agreement that was, to many, a disappointing
conclusion to a two-year process that had the goal of producing a
comprehensive and enforceable action plan for addressing dangerous
changes to the global climate. The messy compromise mirrored the
chaotic nature of the conference, which virtually all participants said
had been badly organised and run."

The accord that Mr Obama
helped negotiate would have been almost worthless without recognition
by the plenary session of all the delegate nations at the summit. But
as The Guardian
recounted, when the Danish chairman, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, gave
delegates just an hour to consider the accord, he was assailed by a
storm of criticism.

"The Venezuelan representative raised a
bloodied hand to grab his attention. 'Do I have to bleed to grab your
attention,' she fumed. 'International agreements cannot be imposed by a
small exclusive group. You are endorsing a coup d'état against the
United Nations.'

"While the debate raged, China's delegate, Su
Wei, was silent as Latin American nations and small island states lined
up to attack the accord and the way it had been reached.

"
'We're offended by the methodology. This has been done in the dark,'
fumed the Bolivian delegate. 'It does not respect two years of work.'

"Others
resorted to histrionics. The document 'is a solution based on the same
very values, in our opinion, that channelled six million people in
Europe into furnaces,' said Sudan's Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping.

"It
was too much for Rasmussen, who looked strained and exhausted after a
week spent vainly trying to bridge the schisms between the parties. He
raised his gavel to close the debate, which would have aborted the
Copenhagen accord and condemned the summit to abject failure.

"The
document was saved at the last second by [Britain's secretary of state
for energy and climate change, Ed] Miliband, who had rushed back from
his hotel room to call for an adjournment. During the recess, a group
led by Britain, the US and Australia forced Rasmussen out of the chair
and negotiated a last-minute compromise. The accord was neither
accepted or rejected, it was merely 'noted'. This gave it a semblance
of recognition, but the weak language reflected the unease that has
surrounded its inception."

Andy Atkins,
the executive director of Friends of the Earth, responding to a speech
by Mr Obama said: "The president is right that the endeavours in
Copenhagen will go down in history - but unless we see a massive shift
in the US position, it will be for all the wrong reasons.

"If
the president's idea of action is to cut US emissions by 4 per cent on
1990 levels then we're heading for climate catastrophe. Barack Obama
should have taken the opportunity to up his proposed cuts to at least
40 per cent by 2020 and ditch carbon offsetting.

"Obama has deeply disappointed not just those listening to his speech at the UN talks - he has disappointed the whole world."

Tim Jones,
climate policy officer at the World Development Movement said: "This
summit has been in complete disarray from start to finish, culminating
in a shameful and monumental failure that has condemned millions of
people around the world to untold suffering. The leaders of rich
countries have refused to lead. They have been captured by business
interests at a time when people need leaders to put justice first.

"Rich
countries have failed the poorest people in the world and history will
judge them harshly. They have failed to offer the emissions cuts that
science and justice requires. To say that this 'deal' is in any way
historic or meaningful is to completely misrepresent the fact that this
'deal' is meaningless."

The Guardian

reported: "The blame game over the failure of the Copenhagen climate
talks started last night with countries accusing each other of a
complete lack of willingness to compromise.

"The G77 group of
130 developing nations blamed Obama for 'locking the poor into
permanent poverty by refusing to reduce US emissions further.'

" 'Today's events are the worst development for climate change in history,' said a spokesperson.

"Pablo
Solon, Bolivian ambassador to the UN, blamed the Danish hosts for
convening only a small group of countries to prepare a text to put
before world leaders. 'This is completely unacceptable. How can it be
that 25 to 30 nations cook up an agreement that excludes the majority
of the 190 nations.'"

The New York Times
noted: "Even President Obama, a principal force behind the final deal,
said the accord would take only a modest step toward healing the
Earth's fragile atmosphere.

"Many participants also said that
the chaos and contentiousness of the talks may signal the end of
reliance on a process that for almost two decades had been viewed as
the best approach to tackling global warming: the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change and a series of 15 conventions
following a 1992 climate summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

"The
process has become unworkable, many said, because it has proved
virtually impossible to forge consensus among the disparate blocs of
countries fighting over environmental guilt, future costs and who
should referee the results.

" 'The climate treaty process isn't
going to die, but the real work of coordinating international efforts
to reduce emissions will primarily occur elsewhere,' said Michael Levi,
who has been tracking the diplomatic effort for the Council on Foreign
Relations.

"That elsewhere will likely be a much smaller group
of nations, roughly 30 countries responsible for 90 per cent of global
warming emissions."

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091220/GLOBALBRIEFING/912209991/1009?template=globalbriefing



Thirteen-day talkathon delivers 'horrible agreement'

DAWN.com - Rina Saeed Khan - ‎43 minutes ago‎

'Copenhagen was supposed to deliver a binding treaty, not hollow
promises': Pakistani negotiator. Above: Workers remove an exhibit at ...

Climate summit most chaotic show on earth - Miliband

BBC News - ‎49 minutes ago‎

The UK's climate change secretary has said the UN Copenhagen summit was
the "most chaotic show on earth" and arguments "strangled"
negotiations. ...

Miliband blames China over deal

The Press Association - ‎1 hour ago‎

Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband acknowledged that the results of
the Copenhagen conference were "disappointing" but insisted that
important progress ...


China says communication with other developing countries at Copenhagen summit ...

Xinhua - Xiong Tong - ‎1 hour ago‎

BEIJING, Dec. 20 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin
Gang said here Sunday that China's communication with other developing
countries at the ...

China: Climate talks yielded 'positive' results

The Associated Press - Gillian Wong - ‎1 hour ago‎

BEIJING — China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases,
lauded Sunday the outcome of a historic UN climate conference that
ended with a nonbinding ...

One cheer for Copenhagen

Sydney Morning Herald - ‎1 hour ago‎

NOWHERE near good enough, but much better than nothing. That is the
kindest, and fairest, verdict that can be passed on the Copenhagen
climate-change summit ...

The day the Earth stood still

Sydney Morning Herald - Marian Wilkinson - ‎1 hour ago‎

IN a faltering step that nearly all concede is too little to avert a
climate crisis, the majority of world leaders will adopt the first
international ...

Clearly the accord is not enough, but at least it's a start

Sydney Morning Herald - Ben Cubby - ‎1 hour ago‎

THE Copenhagen Accord, already derided as a betrayal of the world's
most vulnerable people, still signals a new dawn in the world's
approach to climate ...

Match words with deeds, and time is ticking: scientists

Sydney Morning Herald - Deborah Smith, Ben Cubby - ‎1 hour ago‎

DESPITE the best efforts of climate change campaigners to distribute
ticking alarm clocks to delegates at Copenhagen, and the enormous
stopwatch carried ...

New approach on global warming needed now

The Australian - ‎1 hour ago‎

THE Copenhagen climate change conference generated much heat and little
light on ways the world can unite to reduce carbon emissions. ...







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Timeline of articles
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Climate summit most chaotic show on earth - Miliband
‎49 minutes ago‎ - BBC News

Climate talks go into overtime, PM Manmohan called back
‎Dec 18, 2009‎ - Times of India

New climate draft drops 2010 deadline for treaty
‎Dec 18, 2009‎ - The Associated Press

Obama Tries to Rally UN Climate Conference, but Deadlock Persists
‎Dec 18, 2009‎ - New York Times

Chinese premier: Will honor climate commitments
‎Dec 18, 2009‎ - The Associated Press

Obama hopes to seal the climate deal in Copenhagen
‎Dec 18, 2009‎ - The Associated Press

Copenhagen climate talks in quotes
‎Dec 17, 2009‎ - BBC News

Hillary Clinton Pledges $100B for Developing Countries
‎Dec 17, 2009‎ - New York Times

Obama will be in climate spotlight in Copenhagen
‎Dec 17, 2009‎ - Los Angeles Times

Final reckoning: What the leaders must do to thrash out a deal in Copenhagen
‎Dec 16, 2009‎ - guardian.co.uk



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Rudd :Copenhagen Accord- A Real Challenge

PR-inside.com (press release) - ‎7 hours ago‎
Foundations now laid in the Copenhagen climate change Accord. We need national & global action for our kids. Kevin Rudd Prime Minister of Australia tweeted ...

Bright REDD Spot in Otherwise Dismal Copenhagen Accord

Ecosystem Marketplace - Steve Zwick - ‎15 hours ago‎
19 December 2009 | COPENHAGEN | That's the good news on REDD from the otherwise disappointing Copenhagen Accord, which was recognized in the wee hours of ...

Copenhagen failures strike at heart of UN system

Channel News Asia - ‎10 hours ago‎
In Copenhagen
last week, there were moments when that crash finally - horribly -
appeared to have happened. The United Nations had billed December 18 2009 ...

Copenhagen Accord useful in taking climate talks forward: PM Lee

Channel News Asia - May Wong - ‎Dec 19, 2009‎
COPENHAGEN: Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Saturday that he is ...

SUMMIT IS A GREENWASH

Mirror.co.uk - Lesley Yarranton - ‎8 hours ago‎
The 1 1th-hour Copenhagen Accord was pieced together by US President Barack Obama, who called it "meaningful". But it has been roundly condemned by ...

Germany's Merkel Defends Climate Accord

ABC News - ‎4 hours ago‎
18, 2009. (AP Photo/Heribert Proepper) German Chancellor Angela Merkel is defending the much-criticized outcome of the Copenhagen climate summit as a first ...

Sudan climate negotiator 'Holocaust' remarks prompt angry response

Sudan Tribune - ‎9 hours ago‎
UN climate talks ended with a bare-minimum agreement on Saturday when delegates “noted” an accord struck by the United States, China and other emerging ...

UN climate change conference issues Copenhagen Accord

CCTV - Zhang Pengfei - ‎14 hours ago‎
People walk past a globe at the venue of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, capital of Denmark, December 19, 2009. ...





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