Troubled galaxy destroyed Dreams, Chapter 370
Palash Biswas
PLAYING IT CRISP - Is the Indian political class maturing in its dealings with the US? | |
| Diplomacy - K.P. Nayar | |
For four days last week, the Union home minister, P. Chidambaram, was the envy of many of the 174 ambassadors resident in Washington. Actually, he was the envy even of some of those who claim to turn the levers of State power in America's capital. The access that was given to Chidambaram in New York and in Washington during his maiden visit to the United States of America as home minister made some prominent members of the US House of Representatives and the Senate rub their eyes in disbelief. The Obama administration officials frankly admitted that some US lawmakers who interacted with the home minister could not have as easily met so many key people in Washington, especially at the nerve centres of US intelligence and in the war rooms that protect America against terrorism. The home minister's visit has held out hope that may be, just may be, India would at last show some belated signs of maturity in its dealings with the US. This columnist has covered every single Indian ministerial and senior officials' visit to Washington in the last nine years. Most of these ministers wanted a photo opportunity with the US president: never mind that the visitor was dealing with, say, food processing industries back home. Not that all of the visiting ministers were uninterested in — or incapable of — conducting any serious official business in Washington. A meeting with the US president was, however, billed as the high point of ministerial visits. On one occasion, an external affairs minister reversed his foreign secretary's strict insistence on reciprocity and went to the PMO to make sure that a visiting US secretary of state will meet the prime minister after the Indian ambassador in Washington — who favoured such a meeting — cleverly let it be known to the minister that there is no hope of his meeting George W. Bush during his next visit to America if the secretary of state was confined to the external affairs minister during that trip and was not allowed access to the prime ministerial residence on 7 Race Course Road. Chidambaram, on the other hand, was not obsessed, even for a minute, with being photographed with Barack Obama. But then Chidambaram is not Anand Sharma, Ghulam Nabi Azad or Jaipal Reddy, and it may be too much to assume that the way the home minister conducted himself last week was synonymous with the Indian political class having acquired maturity in its dealings with Washington. Look at how a big song and dance is being made in New Delhi as the US visit — and the "first state visit" under the Obama presidency — of the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, draws near. And the Americans know how easy it is to massage India's ego: even as Chidambaram was in Washington, the assistant secretary of state for South Asia, Robert Blake, made it a point to underscore in a policy speech that Singh's visit was, indeed, the first state visit. This columnist has never seen a US official underline such frills of absolutely no consequence, with no bearing whatsoever on substantive policy, in America's dealings with China, Russia, Japan or France. Chidambaram came to the US with a precise agenda and rare clarity on how to go about fulfilling what was on his agenda. He did not plead with his US interlocutors to help save India from cross-border terrorism. He did not whine like the little boy who runs to his big brother to complain that his cousin or neighbour had given him a beating. At a meeting with representatives of select think-tanks in Washington, Chidambaram got the opportunity to say a lot of what he wanted to tell Americans when a participant asked why India was unwilling to have a joint investigation with Pakistan into the terrorist attack on Mumbai in November last year. Without once raising his voice or giving in to emotions, like a lawyer clinically cross-examining a witness, Chidambaram explained to Americans at this and other meetings what precise evidence India had given to Pakistan about the involvement of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and of its chief, Hafeez Sayeed, in the attack on Mumbai. The implication of everything that Chidambaram said was that the Pakistan judiciary was right in letting Hafeez Sayeed go free. Because the Pakistani government had failed to investigate Indian leads, it had let evidence grow cold and deliberately not presented proof in court, which would have put Hafeez Sayeed behind bars. A judge, the home minister repeatedly noted, can only act if he is shown evidence against the people who are being prosecuted. The authorities in Pakistan had simply abdicated their responsibility to do that despite several dossiers from India which contained leads that ought to have been followed up. Chidambaram made the Americans squirm when he reminded them that Pakistan's reluctance to investigate, prosecute and destroy the terrorist virus that is threatening to overwhelm that country has nothing to do with India pointing a finger at the Pakistan establishment. Six Americans died in the terrorist attack on Mumbai, and yet, Islamabad has refused to allow the Federal Bureau of Investigation to conduct any inquiry in Pakistan. It is an argument that cuts deep into the American psyche: every US government has valued American lives to be worth acting against those who endanger those lives. And yet, when it comes to Pakistan, there is a sense of helplessness in Washington about doing anything, which the home minister more than hinted at in his interactions in the US. Some of those present at official meetings where Chidambaram rolled out these arguments were the very people who have been arguing that Pakistan should be the centrepiece of US security strategy for South and Central Asia in the next decade. Notwithstanding the sparring, it was clear as Chidambaram left for New Delhi that the Americans were very pleased to have had the opportunity to meet face-to-face the top man in India who was dealing with terrorism on a day-to-day basis. The last time men and women in the US, whose job it is to protect America, had that opportunity was six years ago when the deputy prime minister and home minister, L.K. Advani, went to Washington. Interacting with two home ministers in India, Advani and Chidambaram, the Americans must be wondering what it is in India's political system that makes home ministers so much superior, so very personable and businesslike, compared to other members of the Union cabinet. For all the legal arguments that Chidambaram presented, his incontrovertible logic and his eloquence, nothing is going to change in Washington: the Americans are stuck with Pakistan on Afghanistan and Central Asia. But then, Pakistan, contrary to television hyperbole, was only part of Chidambaram's agenda in the US. As part of his thorough preparations for the visit, Chidambaram read Securing the City: Inside America's Best Counterterror Force — the NYPD (acronym for the New York Police Department). It is a new book written by Christopher Dickey, the Paris bureau chief of Newsweek, who wanted to investigate how the NYPD had kept New Yorkers safe since September 11, 2001. After reading the book, Chidambaram decided to craft his own programme in New York, unlike most Indian ministers. He asked for meetings with the FBI-led Joint Terror Task Force, the NYPD and the agencies involved in protecting New York's mass transport system. In Washington, he similarly insisted on a personal tour of the National Counter-Terrorism Centre: his idea is to create a centre in New Delhi that mirrors the talent and capacity of the one in Washington in being able to deal with threats to India. Chidambaram wants the US to help India in creating its anti-terrorist infrastructure to a standard that has prevented another attack on America since September 11, 2001. Lest the Americans should drag their feet on such help, the home minister's brahmastra was that it was in US interest to help in India's acquisition of counter-terrorist technology and equipment because it will, in turn, provide greater security for American investment in India as bilateral economic relations become deeper. It was an argument that no one in Washington could counter. |
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I had been Offline since 6th Sep as I was back away my Home in Uttarakhand. I also visited Uttarparadesh and felt the heat and dust of Mauawati rule in UP as well as BJP rule in the DEVBHUMI, dominated by Caste Hindus! I would file my reports one by one. Meanwhile Indo SINO Border Tension gets momentum with topmost Priority to Military Option and Zero Tolerance in Internal Security. Home Minister Chidamabram joins classes of PENTAGON, NASA, CIA, NATO and WHITE House to deal with Indigenous Insurrections at home! WTO does its best to tag EIGHTY Percent Global Economy with US CORPORATE WAR ECONOMICS of Imperialism as well as Zinism! Bengali Marxists have been cornered once again as DISINVESTMENT Drive goes Blind! I would cover all these topics. For beginning I want to update the Economic and Policy making developments without which we may not be able to understand events adn developments at home and abroad!
Mass Destruction Agenda is being accomplished with merciless Surgical precision with a new ELEMENT AUSTERIETY inserted as Mind Control. Thus, Economic Reforms for Ethnic annihiliation continues! Taking a cue from state-run NHPC's disappointing debut on the bourses, primary market tracking firm Prime Database on Tuesday said the
"The PSU IPOs should be made only to the retail investors. An only retail policy will have a major positive impact: a very wide distribution reduces post-listing selling pressure; large sales by institutional investors often destabilize the prices," Prime Database CMD Prithvi Haldea said.
He added that by offering shares to the retail investors, the wealth created by state enterprises from domestic public resources shall be shared rightfully only with the public.
The IPO of NHPC was subscribed nearly 24 times on the final day, following which the government fixed the issue price at the higher end of the price band at Rs 36 a share.
However, the scrip failed to keep up the momentum and settled with just two per cent gains on the debut trade, which raised concerns about aggressive pricing of IPOs.
"Given the long-term prospects of this company, there should be no cause of concern for the investors, and the government should not get unduly worried about this, Haldea said.
The Reserve Bank today said the soft monetary policy adopted by it to counter the impact of the global financial meltdown on the
Meanwhile, Negotiators from key trading nations agreed on Tuesday a new work plan aimed at concluding the long-stalled Doha Round of WTO global
"Everybody had a calendar and now our calendar is full until the end of the year," said Swiss WTO ambassador Luzius Wasescha, who also chairs the negotiating group on industrial goods.
Senior officials will also come to Geneva for a week every month to advance negotiations, with the first such session to take place around October 19, said Indian ambassador Ujal Singh Bhatia following a meeting with his counterparts at the World Trade Organisation.
Since an aborted attempt to organise a small ministerial meeting in December last year, the Doha Round of negotiations that began in 2001 has been restricted to low-level contacts in Geneva.
However, during a ministerial meeting in New Delhi early September, ministers pledged to resume
As a result, discussions have been scheduled at the WTO this week, while the European Union also hosted a separate session Monday with some ambassadors.
Ambassadors said however that it was still too early to tell if the latest talks will yield concrete results.
"Everybody was in a good mood, we'll see what happens," said Argentina ambassador Nestor Stancanelli.
The Doha round of WTO negotiations began in 2001 with the aim of creating a new free-trade pact that would boost global commerce to help developing countries.
Deadlock between the major trading blocs has dashed repeated attempts to forge a new pact.
The last push in July last year in Geneva ended in failure but with a new government installed in Washington since then, there is renewed hope for another drive for success sometime next year. high-level talks from this week.
"Especially on monetary policy, we will not exit unless we are sure that recovery is secured ...but soon thereafter when we make the judgement that the recovery is secured, we have to unwind the accommodative monetary policy," RBI Governor D Subbarao said in Mumbai.
However, the Governor added, the government and the RBI will have to take a call on exiting from stimuli given for perking up the slowing down economy sooner than most of the countries.
He said RBI will look at number of factors like WPI inflation, CPI inflation, components within inflation, industrial growth and credit expansion while unwinding the soft monetary policies.
"This question of exit will be upon us much sooner than most of the country. We have to take a call on supporting the recovery and stemming inflationary pressure," he said.
Pointing out that negative WPI inflation is statistical in nature, Subaarao said, "there are inflationary pressure this fiscal ...and CPI inflation is in double digit".
Subbarao said he expects WPI inflation at 5.2 per cent plus by the end of the current fiscal.
ET Bureau reports that Economic policy planning now focuses on stimulus exit strategies!The Reserve Bank of India is likely to start monetary tightening in the first half of 2010. A deficient monsoon season has hurt the
The economy has rebounded from its trough, and policymakers are now planning the exit strategies from monetary and fiscal stimulus. Moody's Economy.com expects the Reserve Bank of India to only tighten monetary policy when GDP growth returns above 7%, and inflationary pressures begin to build. Although the Indian authorities have been less vocal than their Chinese counterparts in emphasizing the importance of robust growth, the two emerging giant economies face similar challenges in their respective development process. India needs to maintain strong growth in coming years to boost employment and reduce poverty, which is still a widespread concern.
Therefore, the authorities are expected to maintain an expansionary bias in the near term. "A deficient monsoon season has complicated India's economic recovery. The decline in agricultural output could drag on other sectors such as manufacturing and trade. The government has continued rolling out stimulus measures, especially targeting drought victims. Although restoring fiscal discipline that is, controlling spending takes a high priority, the authorities will ensure an economic environment that facilitates strong growth in coming years. To fuel development without putting further pressure on the already-heavy fiscal burden, policymakers are likely to explore non-expenditure avenues such as encouraging foreign investment inflows and boosting competition in the domestic sector," said Sherman Chan, economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Economic contraction and inflation have taken turns to challenge Indian policymakers in recent years. Now that the Indian economy is clearly on a recovery path, the focus is shifting back to inflation, which could accelerate strongly in the near term. The wholesale price index remains in negative territory now, but the CPI measures have been stubbornly strong, meaning that a pickup in inflationary pressures would be a serious concern.
The authorities are keen to make preemptive moves in containing inflation, which is partly why India will be among the first in the world to start tightening monetary policy. However, the government should be more accountable for inflation, as measures that constantly keep farm prices artificially high have been a major reason for the lack of retreat in CPI growth even during the economic downturn.
Shipping Ministry favours divestment in Cochin Shipyard!
The Shipping Ministry supports the Department of Economic Affairs' move to divest government equity in state-run Cochin Shipyard, the
Shipping Secretary A P V N Sarma also said that 20 public private partnership schemes would be signed this year for port projects, while the Ministry is also working on a better taxation regime for Shipping companies to boost maritime trade.
"We have broadly agreed to Department of Economic Affairs recommendation. DEA is likely to ask for 10 per cent disinvestment in PSUs. This includes Cochin Shipyard," Sarma told reporters on the sidelines of an Assocham event here.
Cochin Shipyard, which attained category -1 miniratna status in July 2008, posted a 70 per cent increase in net profit at Rs 160 crore for 2008-09 financial year.
The company declared a dividend of Rs 19.66 crore for 2008-09. The continued profit of the yard had resulted in an increase in net worth from Rs 429.42 crore in 2007-08 to Rs 566.49 crore in 2008-09.
The company had achieved a total shipbuilding income of Rs 986 crore during 2008-09 against Rs 582 crore during 2007-08. Ship repair turnover during the year was Rs 270 crore.
Small IPOs turn playground for richie rich
MUMBAI: The recent ruling by the Securities & Exchange Board of India barring Austral Coke from accessing the capital market for alleged
As seen from the table, the institutional portion of many of the issues below Rs 150 crore have been subscribed to by less than half-a-dozen qualified institutional buyers (QIBs). In a few cases, there has just been a solitary QIB. Market watchers allege that in some cases these QIBs are newly-formed entities with non-existent transaction records and may have been set up to invest in small-sized issues.
A public issue cannot go through unless the QIB portion of the book is fully subscribed. "Most genuine QIBs are uninterested in small-sized issues, partly due to the minuscule quantity of shares on offer," said a veteran broker. However, there are cases where the entire institutional book is bought out by one (or more) overseas entity, and the criteria (fully-subscribed QIB book) is met.
Market watchers say wild swings in stock prices
For instance, shares of Edserv Softsystems, which listed in March this year, crashed from its peak price of Rs 147.90 to a low of Rs 18.70 between March 3 and April 1. The company had floated a Rs 24-crore issue and the institutional portion of the book was subscribed to by two QIBs. They say the poor performance of many IPOs in the last couple of years can be attributed to this factor.
Some feel the solution to this problem could be the regulator insisting on a minimum number of QIB applicants for an initial public offering. For instance, in the case of qualified institutional placements (QIPs), and even mutual fund schemes, the regulator insists on a minimum number of investors.
"The QIP rule can be extended to IPOs as well, but I don't think that is a solution to the problem," says Prithvi Haldea, chairman, Prime Database. According to Mr Haldea, the real solution lies in doing away with the book-building process and introducing the auction process for IPOs.
"Companies or investment banks should not decide prices, institutional investors should. Let them bid for a quantity at their price, and the final allotment of shares be done on a top-down basis (starting from the highest bidder). The lowest price should be the fixed price for the retail investor," says Mr Haldea.
IAF plane almost bombs Indira Gandhi Canal
JAISALMER: In the third such instance this year, an Indian Air Force fighter plane managed to drop a bomb on Indian territory, this time
A Mirage-2000 aircraft that took off from Gwalior on a routine exercise, mistimed an operation and dropped a 100-pound bomb 12 km from Mohangarh town in Jaisalmer district on Monday night. It was sheer chance that the bomb exploded some 100 feet from the Indira Gandhi Canal. Though the boundary of the canal was damaged, a large chunk of the canal could have breached had the projectile fallen a little closer, flooding nearby towns. A 100-pound bomb can cause damage to life and property up to 200 feet from the spot of explosion.
Confirming the incident, spokesman for the South-Western Air Command Group Captain Manoj Mehta said, "The aircraft had taken off from Gwalior as part of a routine exercise on Monday evening and was to drop the bomb at a target in Chandhan Range, 25 km away from the place where the bomb actually fell.'' The Pakistan border is 60 km from Mohangarh town. Two other small villages, Hasam Ki Dhani and Hameed Nada, are barely 1 km from the site of the explosion.
The bomb created a 25-feet-wide crater and over 80 trees were burnt. Dhanna Ram, a security guard at a nearby forest department outpost, claimed he was a witness. "I heard a loud explosion near 1404 RD (an identification marker) of the Indira Gandhi Main Canal around 10.30 pm. When I rushed out of the outpost building, I saw fire and two aircraft flying in the sky,'' said Dhanna Ram. On Tuesday morning, he mustered enough courage to visit the spot and then inform police.
Group Captain Mehta added that the bomb may have been released either due to a technical snag or there was delay in the release of the bomb by the pilot for some unknown reason. A four-member team headed by Wing Commander Ajay Kaul and Wing Commander Sudhir inspected the area on Tuesday morning. An inquiry has been ordered into the near-disaster.
IAF planes dropped bombs on Indian territory by mistake on February 7 and February 13. Both incidents were reported in Jaisalmer district. On February 7, a bomb fell on Kamode village and on February 13, one more crashed into Doshe Khan ki Dhani. There were no injuries but the February 13 bombing damaged crops and led to cracks in buildings.
Another eyewitness, Ragaram Vishnoi, also a security guard at the outpost, said he thought the explosion which shook the ground was an "act of God'', but later realised that the bomb could have been dropped by an aircraft.
Shrapnel from the bomb was scattered over an area of 200 metres. "It was sheer luck that the bomb did not hit the canal's boundary or the bridge which is situated just 100 feet away from the place where the bomb dropped. Mohangarh could have submerged in water if any such thing had happened,'' said Ragaram.
Avoid coordinated exit by G-20
The G-20 (the group of countries representing 85% of the world economy) takes credit for helping tackle the global financial crisis. At its April
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So, the G-20 is getting ready to call at its next meeting at Pittsburgh on September 24-25 for, among other things, a globally coordinated exit from the earlier stimuli. Enormous fiscal deficits and loose monetary policy cannot continue forever — already these are threatening inflation and new asset bubbles. And so the G-20 is reportedly preparing to call for countries to coordinate their exit, just as they coordinated their earlier entry into stimulus.
The main problem with this approach is mendacity. It is simply not true that all countries of the world solemnly agreed on a coordinated stimulus. The Great Recession began in December 2007, triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis, and there was no question of coordination — Europeans patronisingly saw it as a peculiarity of the unregulated US markets. Third World countries had little exposure to toxic US assets, and they too sniggered at US discomfiture. President Bush proposed a major stimulus package in late 2007, and one was passed into law in February 2008. No European or Third World country followed suit.
The US housing situation continued deteriorating, further eroding prices of mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps guaranteeing such securities. This culminated in Black September in 2008, when Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and the four top US investment banks were laid low. Panic seized global finance at the realisation that not even the most exalted triple-A corporates could be trusted to honour their commitments. Lending of all sorts froze, risk premiums on all securities went through the roof, and securities galore turned illiquid as trading ground to a panicky halt. The rest of the world could no longer smile patronisingly at US troubles: the problem had become global, horrifyingly so.
Every country then reacted on its own, without coordination. Economists everywhere knew Keynesian economics, and launched stimulus packages tailored to their own conditions. India, for instance, came out with its first stimulus package in December 2008, a second package in January 2009, and a third in the form of the budget. These packages were devised by India on its own, not in coordination with anybody else.
Then in April 2009 the G-20 met again in London, and issued a call for a globally coordinated stimulus. This was really a bit rich. Every country had already come out with a national stimulus package, but here was an international summit implying this was a challenge for the future.
In fact, by the April meeting of the G-20 the Great Recession was already bottoming out. Global markets had touched rock bottom in March 2009, when Citibank looked for a moment like collapsing. After the US made it clear that neither Citibank nor any other giant company would be allowed to go into liquidation, the global market mood changed. Markets decided that the worst was over, and it was time to shift tens of billions from safe havens to all kinds of securities that had become basement bargains in the earlier scare.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/columnists/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/Avoid-coordinated-exit-by-G-20/articleshow/5016417.cms
India weathers 12 months of financial crisis
An economy is best judged not in fair weather but foul. India has successfully weathered the great financial crisis of September 2008. Indian
The global recession started in December 2007. The initial impact on India was muted: GDP growth slowed from 9% in 2007-08 to 7.8% in April-September 2008, still a very high rate. But after Wall Street collapsed in September, India's growth plummeted to 5.8%, 5.8% and 6.1% in the next three quarters. This was a comedown. Yet, it far exceeded the World Bank's forecast of 4% growth in 2009. It exceeded my expectations too.
Let's compare India's performances in the Great Recession and Asian financial crisis. In the latter, India's GDP growth fell to just 4.5% in 1997-98, of which 1% was a boost from the Pay Commission. Today, the annual rate of growth exceeds 6%, of which 0.5% is a Pay Commission boost. That's a big improvement.
In 1997, India's foreign exchange reserves were strained, interest rates went sky-high, companies defaulted on loans and dragged down banks. But in 2008, India's high foreign exchange reserves prevented any panic, even after foreign institutional investors withdrew $12 billion from the stock market and foreign credit suddenly vanished.
Indian corporates were much less over-borrowed in 2008 than in 1997, and Indian banks were far better capitalized, so they withstood the financial crisis. Companies that had borrowed big for new projects in 1997 collapsed, and many begged for debt forgiveness. In 2008, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Hindustan Aluminium had raised gargantuan dollar loans for foreign acquisitions, yet managed to weather the storm.
So resilient was India's performance that the very foreign investors who had withdrawn $12 billion in 2008, flooded back into Indian stock markets at the rate of $1billion per week in May 2009. This was in stark contrast with the Asian financial crisis, when foreign institutional money remained a trickle for years.
Why did India suffer so little in the Great Recession that laid low the biggest economies of the West? First, Indian banks and financial institutions had almost entirely avoided buying the mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps that turned toxic and felled western financial institutions. Second, India's merchandise exports were indeed hit by the Great Recession - they declined by around 30%. But service exports did not fall - computer software and BPO exports held up well. This provided an important cushion to Indian exports.
Third, remittances from overseas Indians continued unabated, hitting a record $46.4 billion in 2008-09, up from $43.5 billion the previous year. The 2008-09 flow was 4% of GDP. To put this in perspective, remember that India's entire merchandise exports were barely 5% of GDP in the mid-1980s. So, emigration (including the so-called brain drain) plus policies to eliminate the black market premium on the dollar now provide a huge balance of payments cushion. Back in the 1991 crisis, India turned to the IMF as lender of last resort for a structural adjustment loan of $4 billion. Remittances now make the IMF (and World Bank) look puny.
Fourth, foreign direct investment remained high at $27.3 billion in 2008-09 despite the global financial crisis. Financiers reversed flows into India, but long-term investors in plant and factories completed their ongoing projects. Lesson: foreign direct investment is a stabilizing force.
Fifth, monetary policy, which was savagely restrictive in 1998, was accommodating in 2008. In 1998, to check a run on the rupee and penalize banks trying to hoard dollars, the RBI raised the bank rate and cash reserve ratio of banks hugely. This sucked out liquidity, and interest rates skyrocketed. This checked the run on the rupee, but was terrible for industry. By contrast, the RBI in 2008 did not tighten money to save the rupee, which was allowed to fall from Rs 40 to Rs 52 to the dollar. Instead, the RBI lowered interest rates and expanded credit. The government cut excise duties to stoke demand. This combination of easy fiscal and monetary policy cushioned the shock to the economy in ways that were missing in 1997-98.
Some things look much worse in 2009 than in 1997. Politicians look more venal, bureaucrats more callous and corrupt, the police more incompetent (and in Gujarat's case more communal). Maoists are a problem in 160 districts. But even as political management seems to be eroding, economic management has greatly improved. Whether this paradox is sustainable remains to be seen.
Climate change may reduce South Asia GDP 4-5 per cent: World Bank
: A global warming of two degrees Celsius -- the minimum the world is likely to experience -- could result in permanent GDP reductions
But if developed countries act now, a 'climate-smart' world is feasible, and the costs for getting there will be high but still manageable, says the report, adding that high-income countries also need to act quickly to reduce their carbon footprints and boost development of alternative energy sources to help tackle the problem of climate change.
The World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, released worldwide Tuesday, says that advanced countries, which produced most of the greenhouse gas emissions of the past, must act to shape our climate future.
Developing countries can shift to lower-carbon paths while promoting development and reducing poverty, but this depends on financial and technical assistance from high-income countries. A key way to do this is by ramping up funding for mitigation in developing countries, where most future growth in emissions will occur.
"The countries of the world must act now, act together and act differently on climate change," said World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick. "Developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change -- a crisis that is not of their making and for which they are the least prepared. For that reason, an equitable deal in Copenhagen is vitally important."
Copenhagen is hosting the next summit of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change this December.
The report says that that global warming of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures -- the minimum the world is likely to experience -- could result in permanent reductions in GDP of four to five percent for South Asia.
The region's water resources are likely to be affected by climate change, through its effect on the monsoon, which provides 70 percent of annual precipitation in a four-month period, and on the melting of Himalayan glaciers, particularly in the western end of the range.
Agricultural productivity is one of many factors driving the greater vulnerability of developing countries. Extrapolating from past year-to-year variations in climate and agricultural outcomes, yields of major crops in India are projected to decline by 4.5 to 9 percent within the next three decades, even allowing for short-term adaptations.
Rising sea levels are also of important concern in South Asia, which has long and densely populated coastlines, agricultural plains threatened by saltwater intrusion, and many low-lying islands. In more severe climate-change scenarios, rising seas would submerge much of the Maldives and inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh's land.
NALCO to invest in nuclear power project
Indian state-run National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) plans to invest in a nuclear power project to give the metal maker a new revenue
NALCO hopes to sign a joint venture agreement by the end of this month with state firm Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd for a minority stake in one of its projects, B.L. Bagra, NALCO's director for finance, said.
"In one of the projects, of 1,000 MW, we are partnering with them as a minority partner with a possible stake of 40 to 49 percent," he said.
"It is an additional business line... We can earn money
production, said. Both officials declined to say how much NALCO would be investing.
NALCO, India's third-largest aluminium maker, produced 361,262 tonnes of aluminium in 2008/09 that ended in March. It has a 960 MW thermal power plant in Angul in the eastern state of Orissa that feeds its aluminium smelter in the same state.
FIIs fear higher tax outgo under new direct tax code
| Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have approached the ministry of finance (MoF) seeking an extension of the 'feedback window' on the There is a perception that if implemented, the direct tax code could increase tax liabilities of foreign portfolio managers significantly. So far in 2009, FIIs have pumped in $8.6 billion into Indian equities. As of September 15, 2009, there are around 1,695 Sebi-registered FIIs in India. Under the proposed tax code, securities transaction tax (STT) will be abolished and tax on long-term gains will be brought back. The code proposes that FIIs will be taxed at a flat rate of 30% on net capital gains as against nil/10%/20% on long-term capital gains and 15%/30% on short-term capital gains under the existing law. It also introduces general anti-avoidance rules (GAAR), under which any transaction could be considered to be a tax avoidance transaction and the onus for proving otherwise is on the tax payer. Currently, double taxation avoidance agreements (DTAA) override the domestic law.
There are concerns that GAAR could be used against even genuine transactions, thereby affecting portfolio flows into the country. However, the new code proposes that the provisions under the act or DTAA, whichever is later in time, shall prevail. This negates the provisions of more than 70-odd comprehensive DTAAs, which India has signed with other countries, thereby eroding the subsequent tax benefits. Experts believe the ownership structure of FIIs could be impacted and there would be need for re-organisation. "Clearly the proposed code is a negative for FIIs and will impact inflows (if implemented). FIIs may also need to restructure their operations to assess the tax beneficial ways, in which they could invest in India," said Akhil Hirani, managing partner of Majmudar & Co. The concern among the institutional investors is palpable. "They are concerned that the domestic tax rule will override international treaties, ie GAAR will override DTAA. Additionally, almost 50% of the registered funds are coming through the DTAA route. So, effectively they will end up paying double taxes," said a person familiar with the issue. Interestingly, both Mauritius and Singapore, have signed double tax avoidance treaties with India. As per custodians, over 50% of the money comes in via the Mauritius route. "The new tax code if implemented will only benefit those who churn portfolios frequently. The larger chunk of FIIs are long-only funds. For them, 30% tax will be a huge chunk of their profits, as it will be moved into business income," said an official. There is a growing perception amongst FIIs that while India is an exciting market, frequent regulatory changes make it a very complex market to invest in. | ||||||
Coal Min seeks Finance, Law Ministries' view on CIL divestment
The Coal Ministry has approached the Department of Disinvestment for determining the value of Coal India's shares ahead of the PSU's
The Coal Ministry has also sought the Law Ministry's opinion on a proposal for giving stock option to its employees and allotment of shares to those who have lost land for mining purposes, highly placed sources in the ministry said.
"The Coal Ministry is seeking views from the Department of Disinvestment on valuation of CIL's shares. It is also seeking legal opinion on the shares to be given to the company's employees and land-losers on the preferential basis," a senior ministry official said.
Asked if the quantum of government's stake to be sold through the process of disinvestment has been ascertained, he said, "Coal India's proposal regarding disinvestment has been received but a final figure is yet to be arrived at. Let us first see what does the two ministries suggest."
Besides seeking the two ministries views regarding disinvestment, the Coal Ministry has also written to the Public Enterprise Selection Board, regarding appointment of additional full-time directors on the coal major's board.
Coal India needs to have seven full-time directors on its board from the present four in order to be a 'Public Ltd', a pre-requiste for coming out with an IPO. It is registered as a 'Private Ltd' entity at present.
Last week, Coal India Chairman P S Bhattacharyya had sought from the government delinking of shares to be given to its employees and land-losers from the equity to be channelised towards public offer.
Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal had said that a maximum of 10 per cent of government's stake could be divested in the coal major in the first phase. However, another Coal Ministry official said that about 15 per cent of government's stake could be diluted in the firm.
While the officials did not specify any time-frame on the IPO, the company and the ministry is also in touch with market regulator SEBI on the proposal. Also, Bhattacharyya had met Disinvestment Secretary Sunil Mitra last month to discuss the stake-sale proposal.
It was given Navratna status last year and was asked to get listed before September 2011. But, industry observers anticipate listing to happen in an year's time.
The government, which owns 100 per cent equity in the company, has already given its permission to slash the face value of the shares to Rs 10 from Rs 1,000, a move aimed at expanding the firm's equity base.
The company has a paid-up equity capital of about Rs 6,316 crore. It clocked a pre-tax profit of Rs 8,738.46 crore in the last fiscal.
Prior to the proposed stake-sale, the Coal Ministry would have to introduce a bill to amend the present Coal Mines Nationalisation Act.
WPI seen down 0.08 pc y/y as at Sept 5
The annual change in India's wholesale price index (WPI) is forecast to have held just below zero in early September, a Reuters poll
The index is forecast to have fallen 0.08 percent in the year to Sept. 5, little changed from the previous week's fall of 0.12 percent, the poll of 11 economists found. It would be the 14th consecutive annual fall in the wholesale price index, but rather than deflation analysts say it reflects much sharper price rises for fuel and commodities
That effect will recede in coming weeks as the WPI peaked in the first two weeks of September 2008, and the index has been rising on a weekly basis since early March led by food prices. The food articles index rose 14.8 percent in the year to Aug. 29. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Tuesday wholesale price-based inflation so far in the current fiscal year was 5.2 percent and it was a fair bet it would be higher at the end of March.
At a policy review in July, the central bank raised its WPI-inflation forecast for the end of 2009/10 to 5 percent from 4 percent. Federal officials and private-sector economists have said it is likely to be higher than that. A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said a rebound in inflation would prompt the central bank to start increasing banks' cash reserve requirements to drain out excess liquidity which were fuelling price pressures.
The WPI data is expected around midday (0630 GMT) on Thursday. It is more closely watched than the consumer price index which is released only on a monthly basis and contains fewer items.
India will require $1.7 trillion in financing
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs expects gross savings rate in Asia's third largest economy to rise to 40 percent of GDP by 2016 and remain at high levels for well over a decade. India's domestic savings are on a sustained upturn, primarily due to favourable demographics, and also due to rising GDP growth and lower per capita incomes, it said. It also said that household savings can be intermediated through the financial sector to the government, which then spends on infrastructure.
However, it would be more efficient if household savings were channelled directly to infra through pension/insurance funds, it added. India's infrastructure build-out and financing presents enormous opportunities, not just for producers of capital goods, developers and raw material providers, but also for financial intermediaries.
Indian wealth managers are set to jumpstart hiring and revive expansion plans as a rebound in domestic shares  Though demand for riskier, higher-fee assets such as real estate and private equity remains below 2007 levels, industry insiders said, players such as Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered say new client assets under advisement have surged by more than 25 percent in 2009. "The opportunity that is presenting itself in India today is unparalleled compared to any other parts of Asia," said Soumya Rajan, head of Indian wealth management at Standard Chartered. Her firm aims to add at least $500 million in client assets at its Indian wealth arm by the end of 2010, taking the total under management to more than $2 billion. It will also add 35 relationship managers to a team of 45 by the end of next year, part of a plan to strengthen a presence in Asia, which suffered less than developed markets during the global downturn and is showing signs of recovering growth. New entrants Morgan Stanley and Britain's Barclays are also looking to hire to capture a piece of the high potential Indian wealth management industry. Morgan Stanley attracted nearly 300 clients between the launch of its India wealth management business in September 2008 and last month, a number it aims to grow to 1,000 over the next three to four years. It intends to add another 50 wealth management staff over the next three years, a gain of 50 percent. "Where is the growth? U.S., Europe, Japan -- demographics are against growth... For India we are just on the growth curve," said Ajay Bagga, head of Deutsche's Indian wealth arm. The number of dollar millionaires in India rose 22.7 percent to 123,000 in 2007, the fastest in the world, attracting new wealth management entrants such as Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, Credit Suisse and Barclays. Late in 2007, before the global financial crisis, consultant Celent had forecast that the organised wealth management industry including private banks, then growing at 32 percent annually, would quadruple to manage about $1 trillion in five years. LOCALS RULE India's stock market, which has more than doubled from a low hit in early March, is a key source of wealth for Indians, many of whom are first-generation millionaires created by a stock market boom between 2003 and 2007. Foreign players hope to use their global brands to attract rich Indians, while local competitors tout their large distribution networks and long-term client relationships. Many of the richest Indians live abroad and are clients of global wealth managers in offshore centres such as Dubai and London. Overseas players must overcome hurdles in India, including a battered image for the wealth management industry globally following accusations of aggressive mis-selling of products during the boom years before the global markets collapse. | |
State-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC), the nation's largest fuel retailer, is losing about Rs 79 crore per day on selling auto
"International oil prices have softened a bit, resulting in a marginal reduction in our under-recoveries on petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene," an IOC official said.
IOC and sister PSUs - HPCL and BPCL, who have been barred by the government from revising fuel prices to keep inflation under check, calculate the desired selling price for petrol and diesel on 1st and 16th of every month based on the previous fortnight's average global oil price.
The three firms currently lose Rs 3.63 per litre on petrol and Rs 2.33 a litre on diesel. These are lower than Rs 4.69 per litre loss on petrol and Rs 3.09 a litre on diesel they suffered in the first fortnight of September.
"IOC lost Rs 90 crore per day on fuel sales in the first fortnight of September. This has come down to Rs 79 crore a day from today," the official said.
On domestic LPG and kerosene, the desired price of which is calculated on a monthly basis, the three firms make a loss of Rs 158.55 per 14.2-kg LPG cylinder and Rs 17.15 on every litre of kerosene sold.
"At current oil prices, IOC will end the fiscal with a revenue loss of Rs 23,510 crore and the industry (IOC plus BPCL and HPCL) will see a revenue loss of Rs 41,440 crore," he said.
CIL to commission 19 washeries entailing Rs 3K cr investment
| Coal India, the country's largest coal producer, is set to commission 19 washeries over the next five years with an investment of Rs These facilities would help the company in enhancing the quality of its coal through washing. "We have decided to go for washeries at a large scale on build, operate and maintain (BOM) basis. We are planning for 19 washeries with a total investment of Rs 3,000 crore in the first instance (by 2015) with capacity to wash 105 million tonnes of coal," CIL Chairman Partha S Bhattacharyya told PTI. The company plans to start commercial operation of six out of the 19 washeries by March 2013, he said. "Contract signing for these 6 washeries is likely to be completed by March 2010," he added. The company will float global tenders for another eight facilities in the next six months and plans to commission them by 2013-14, Bhattacharyya said adding that another five washeries would be added by 2014-15. Of the 6 washeries proposed by March 2013, three will be set up at its subsidiary Bharat Coking Coal Ltd, two at Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd and one at Central Coalfields Ltd. The Navratna PSU also plans to add about 20 washeries in the second phase (post-2015), he said. | |
World markets steady as recovery signals eyed
European and Asian markets were steady Tuesday after being spooked by a trade dispute between the U.S. and China the previous day and as
Germany's DAX was down 0.2 percent at 5,607.99 and Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1 percent to 5,015.63. France's CAC-40 rose 0.1 percent to 3,735.55.
Asian markets were mostly higher, while Wall Street was expected to edge down on the open later. Dow industrials futures were 15 points lower at 9,535 and Standard & Poor's 500 futures fell 3 points to 1,040.50.
Markets have recovered impressively in the 12 months since the collapse of U.S. investment bank
After heavy losses Monday, markets stabilized on hopes that a brewing U.S.-Chinese trade dispute would not escalate into a full-out trade war. U.S. markets closed the day higher.
On Tuesday, investors were looking to a raft of economic data in Europe and the U.S. for more direction and confirmation that equity prices were not overvalued after rallying in recent months.
U.S. retail sales loomed largest, with analysts forecasting a 2 percent increase in August. Excluding auto sales, which have been boosted by state incentives, they only expect a 0.4 percent rise, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
Mitul Kotecha, analyst at Calyon, was gloomy about the data and prospects for a quick resurgence in American economic activity.
``The fact that much of the gain in sales will be attributable to the 'cash for clunkers' program suggests that markets will not take the jump in sales as a sign that the U.S. consumer is healthy again.''
Considering that consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy and 20 percent of the world economy, its outlook is crucial for an improvement in market sentiment.
``We believe that consumers still face significant headwinds which will lead to a shallow recovery in spending, not least of which is the negative effect of close to $14 trillion in wealth loss since the end of 2007,'' Kotecha said.
50 foreign varsities interested in having campus in India
About 50 foreign universities, including Duke University from the US, have evinced interest in setting up campuses in India as the
These institutions, mostly from the US, the UK and Australia, have approached the HRD Ministry in the last three months, a senior official said. Duke, a renowned private university in the US, offers courses in various streams and research studies.
HRD Minister Kapil Sibal has said non-profit making institutions would be allowed to set up campuses in the country.
The Foreign Education Providers Bill is before the Cabinet, which is expected to take it up tomorrow.
"Institutions can make surplus money. But they cannot distribute it among their shareholders. They can spend it for further expansion of the institution," Sibal has said.
To take forward the process of engaging their institutions in education sector in India, a number of foreign dignitaries, including British Trade and Investment Minister Mervyn Davies and Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed, have visited India.
India's poor healthcare a threat to growth: Report
NEW DELHI: India urgently needs to spend more on healthcare and save its poor population from poverty and hunger or face the risk of slower
India is home to more than 230 million undernourished people, more than any other country. While the proportion of malnourished has fallen, the absolute numbers are rising with the population.
"A sick and vulnerable population cannot contribute to growth and India will continue to see a pattern of growth that is leading to growing inequalities and low rates of poverty reduction," Nisha Agrawal, Chief Executive Officer of Oxfam told Reuters.
Experts say widespread malnutrition impacts dramatically on economic growth, with the World Bank saying that in the poorest countries it slashes 3 percent from annual economic growth.
More than 27 percent of the undernourished population globally live in India.
The Indian government spends only 1 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on healthcare facilities, forcing millions of people to struggle to get medicines, Oxfam and 62 other agencies said in a report called: "Your Money
Indian authorities acknowledge there is corruption and inefficiency in the government system, especially in villages where many health centres do not have medicines or doctors.
India's economic growth has been forecast to hover around 6.3 percent for 2009/10, and growth could fall to 5.5 percent if farm output was badly hit by the worst dry spell in nearly four decades.
Aid agencies say if India wanted to reduce poverty by 2015, the year marked by the United Nations as the deadline to attain the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to development it needs to spend at least 3 percent of GDP on health.
"Poor people will continue to be denied their right to basic
healthcare, leading to very high rates of infant and child mortality... indicators of welfare," Agrawal said, if New Delhi continued to ignore basic healthcare.
India's maternal mortality rate (MMR) stands at 450 per 100,000 live births -- against 540 in the 1998-99 period -- and way behind the MDGs which call for a reduction to 109 by 2015.
To improve on the dismal record, aid agencies say India needs to increase public expenditure and ensure better healthcare facilities.
"Without that, India will continue to be off track in attaining the MDGs, especially in the health care area and will continue to lag behind its peers in these basic indicators of welfare," Agrawal added.
World stocks at new 11-month high, US dollar skids
LONDON: World equities rose on Wednesday to new 11-month highs, after upbeat U.S. data boosted faith in an economic recovery, persuading more The optimism saw fresh cash flood to stock markets worldwide and bolstered oil to above $71 a barrel and gold to 18-month highs. The dollar however fell to a one-year low against a currency basket as investors shifted to riskier assets. World stocks rose 0.8 percent to the highest levels since early October 2008, while emerging stocks surged 1.5 percent to a new one-year high, trading at levels last touched before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "When you have comments coming out from Bernanke about a technical recession ending, that's increasing the pressure on the bears, there's a bit of a bear squeeze going on," said Mark Robinson, head of equity research at Unicredit in London. "There is also a stronger fundamental element -- the G10 is pulling out of the slump and Asia is clearly in a V-shape (recovery). That's driving risk trade and commodities -- in the last week and a half, and particularly in the last 24 hours, we have seen a commodity stocks trade," Robinson added. The FTSEurofirst index of top European shares rose 0.8 percent, its eighth rise in nine sessions to the highest since October 2008. The index is up 20 percent this year. Asian markets set Wednesday's buoyant tone, sweeping to new 2009 highs, with exporters like South Korea and Australia up 1.8 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. Japan's benchmark Nikkei added a more modest 0.5 percent, restrained in part by uncertainty over the policies of new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama. The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting but no policy change is anticipated. Investors even managed to overlook a 1 percent fall in Shanghai, virtually the only Asian bourse to ease on Wednesday as investors booked profits after three days of gains. | |
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Asia stocks hit 2009 highs, US dollar slips
SYDNEY: Asian shares
Japan's benchmark Nikkei climbed 111.31 points to 10,328.93. The broader Topix rose 0.75 percent to 939.48. Many regional currencies likewise did well, especially those of big commodity exporters such as Australia, largely at the expense of the US dollar.
"As the global recovery continues and risk diversification takes place we could see the US dollar stay under pressure for the next six months," said Amber Rabinov, economist, foreign exchange and international economics at ANZ in Sydney. Measured against a basket of major currencies the dollar slipped as deep as 76.406, the lowest since last October, while the euro came within a whisker of its 2009 high at $0.4681. The dollar also eased to 90.95 yen amid talk investors were using the dollar for carry trades.
Until recently, the low-yielding yen was the currency of choice for investors who borrow cheap to buy riskier assets or high-yielding currencies. But that has changed since 3-month US LIBOR rates fell below Japanese rates. "We expect the dollar to test its recent lows on the yen, and probably fall as low as 87 yen as talk of it replacing the yen as a funding currency gathers momentum," said Rabinov.
Right time to unveil fertiliser reforms
n the second half of 2008 international fertiliser prices soared to historic levels. India, which imports significant amount of finished fertiliser and raw material, had no option but to continue to import at higher prices to meet domestic demand. The result was a massive and unsustainable subsidy level, almost Rs 90,000 crore. With just Rs 30,000 crore was allocated in the budget — and when off-budget mechanisms like bonds were used to pay the arrears owed by the government to the industry — the blame game between industry (which argued that high import price and fixed prices by the government had made business impossible) and the government (which argued that industry had become lazy as the cost plus subsidy system had led to companies paying little regard to efficiency gains and competitive importing) began in earnest. Surprisingly, even amidst this panic and pressure (from the obvious competing goals of finance and agriculture ministries, on the one hand, and a looming general election on the other), the fertiliser department had been working on a reform agenda and slowly building a consensus — both among department mandarins themselves, as well between the government departments and industry bigwigs. The cornerstone of this new agenda was the shift from the cost plus subsidy system to a nutrient-based subsidy system — a move that would address several issues bedevilling the fertiliser sector. Mainly, the core issue of balanced use of fertilisers — key to growing yields — would be taken head on. Balanced fertiliser use had been stifled, as only select products were subsidised. Other fertilisers received no subsidy or their prices were fixed without any regard to their nutrient content. Freeing MRPs from government control would be the only way to ensure production peaks, and imports are carried at the most competitive levels. The other core theme of the new strategy involved direct subsidy to the farmer instead of the manufacturer. Arguably, in the absence of a ready delivery mechanism (for instance, Kisan Cards and bank accounts for farmers), this was a pipe dream. However, in the 2008-09 budget speech, the then finance minister Chidambaram announced that a new system of kisan cards would be tried out on a pilot basis in select areas. Since then, some measures were taken to issue the cards. However, in the absence of a clear mandate to the banks, the process has been somewhat slow. From then on, there have been several developments. Due to the tough and unrelenting stance of the fertiliser department and the Indian industry, and given India's status as a big importer, prices of key products like DAP and phosphoric acid have fallen. As the result, the import bill and subsidy outgo have reduced considerably from 2008 levels. This is good news. Yet a note of caution is warranted, as crisis can act as a catalyst for radical reform. The 2009-10 budget speech signalled the continuation of both the nutrient-based subsidy scheme as well as the direct transfer of subsidy to farmers. There has also been no change at the bureaucratic level — key bureaucrats who worked relentlessly on the reform agenda are in place. Their analysis on a well thought-out and phased reform plan in which all parties will have time to react and rebuild is in place. Most notably, the secretary, who intends to move the fertiliser department away from being a subsidy management machine to one that focuses on strategic acquisitions and joint ventures, is still the man in charge. The only difference is that there is a new minister in place. Observers have so far given him the benefit of the doubt, he needs time to understand the stakeholder impact of reform that has been in the making. Farmer and industry interests are precariously balanced — and so are political compulsions. But the minister must know that there is a finite amount of time before the prices rise again, before industry gets cold feet, and another election comes around. He will have to start taking decisions soon. Indeed, all that is now required is the will to get on with reform — even if it is done in a phased manner and through several well-planned pilot schemes where implementation issues are identified and rectified. The mandarins are ready, the masters must sign on and industry must adapt. It is time to reform now as the stars may not align again so neatly in the near future. |
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SEBI for more transparency in reporting
SEBI's proposal to amend the Listing Agreement to enforce rotation of audit partners and to streamline quarterly and annual reporting is a However, no one should expect these measures would actually curb the recurrence of Satyam Computer Services like accounting scandals. Rotation of audit partners, an international best practice, is long overdue. The proposal may, however, face stiff resistance from the chartered accountants community, even though many firms and the ICAI would agree rotation of audit partners as opposed to rotation of audit firms is definitely a more feasible option. The discussion paper published by Sebi on Monday has suggested that the audit partner signing the accounts of a listed company be rotated every five years. The regulator should also consider mandating joint audits by two firms in the instance of very large businesses to ensure greater integrity of financial statements. The argument against joint audits is that it can prove to be expensive for the companies. Rotation of audit firms is similarly opposed — it is expensive to hire a new firm every few years, but more importantly, new firm takes time to understand the nature of the business of a client. The proposal that the audit committee should approve the appointment of chief financial officers, without laying down her qualifications, places, rightly, the onus on the directors of the company to appoint the right man for the job. The proposal to streamline quarterly and annual reporting by companies and making limited review by the auditors mandatory too should help improve the quality of numbers published by companies. The 45-day window allowed to companies to publish financial statements with limited audit review as against the current requirement of reporting unaudited statements within 30 days from the end of the quarter should give companies enough time to verify numbers before making them public. The proposal to reduce the timeline for reporting full year results from three months to two months is an investor friendly measure, but would put pressure on auditors to finish their task faster. | |
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An offset policy for power equipment imports
16 Sep 2009, 0354 hrs IST, ET Bureau
With domestic power producers stepping up use of Chinese equipment, we need a proactive policy to guard the public interest. Now, on the face of
it, rising imports of China-made boilers, turbines and the like for power plants in India seem unexceptionable. Chinese equipment cost less, are readily available and so appear to fit the bill for revving up power generation capacity here.
However, there are genuine public policy issues that need to be addressed. For one, there's the issue of unfair trade practices. It may well be that the seemingly cheap Chinese exports are being routinely subsidised. Worse, the exports may not be legally valid. For instance, the export of 'super-critical' boilers by Chinese licensees is reportedly not allowed. There may be technical reasons for going slow on sourcing Chinese equipment too. For example, the thermal boilers may not be designed for Indian coal and attendant specifications. Also, prompt after-sales and maintenance locally may not be possible, sans a manufacturing presence.
The way ahead is to mandate an offset policy for Chinese power equipment imports. Power is a critical industry and large economies do require local manufacture and value-addition for equipment. Besides, the Indian power equipment industry is large and growing, which is reason enough for Chinese equipment makers to enthusiastically invest in manufacturing facilities here. Already, reports say that Harbin Power Equipment Co is to have a domestic production base to meet demand.
Meanwhile, with L&T, our biggest engineering and construction company, foraying in a big way into power equipment production — it has joined hands with Mitsubishi for energy efficient super-critical boilers — the domestic industry seems to have considerably matured. Bhel, our main power equipment maker, already has a tie-up with Alstom for super-critical boiler technology. Further, ABB India is also boosting its manufacturing presence. There is no reason why Chinese producers ought to shy away from following suit.
With domestic power producers stepping up use of Chinese equipment, we need a proactive policy to guard the public interest. Now, on the face of
However, there are genuine public policy issues that need to be addressed. For one, there's the issue of unfair trade practices. It may well be that the seemingly cheap Chinese exports are being routinely subsidised. Worse, the exports may not be legally valid. For instance, the export of 'super-critical' boilers by Chinese licensees is reportedly not allowed. There may be technical reasons for going slow on sourcing Chinese equipment too. For example, the thermal boilers may not be designed for Indian coal and attendant specifications. Also, prompt after-sales and maintenance locally may not be possible, sans a manufacturing presence.
The way ahead is to mandate an offset policy for Chinese power equipment imports. Power is a critical industry and large economies do require local manufacture and value-addition for equipment. Besides, the Indian power equipment industry is large and growing, which is reason enough for Chinese equipment makers to enthusiastically invest in manufacturing facilities here. Already, reports say that Harbin Power Equipment Co is to have a domestic production base to meet demand.
Meanwhile, with L&T, our biggest engineering and construction company, foraying in a big way into power equipment production — it has joined hands with Mitsubishi for energy efficient super-critical boilers — the domestic industry seems to have considerably matured. Bhel, our main power equipment maker, already has a tie-up with Alstom for super-critical boiler technology. Further, ABB
RBI to make public real time data
MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India has started putting in public domain real time data for money market
The central bank on Tuesday for the first time released its Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy on the Reserve Bank's Data Warehouse platform. "With this initiative, the user will have access to the latest data as soon as they are updated from the source," RBI said in a statement.
Some of the market data released by RBI could end up becoming reference rates for financial contracts. Currently, the business world depends on reference rates released by news agencies as benchmarks. These rates, which include overnight rates and forward premia rates, are largely based on a poll whereby quotes are obtained from various market participants.
"It is up to the market how they use the data. We will be providing a consistent data series with integrity and quality in the data provided," said Deepak Mohanty, executive director, RBI.
| Grocery shopkeepers inflate prices, making consumers pay a lot 16 Sep 2009, 0140 hrs IST, Ram N Sahgal & Kala Vijayraghavan, ET Bureau |
When wholesale prices of agri commodities rise, the retail prices inflate disproportionately. In fact, when they fall, retail prices actually rise or remain flat, data up to August 26 on the ministry of consumer affairs, food & public distribution website show. This, according to commodity experts, implies that retailer margins, especially of mom-and-pop stores, have probably skyrocketed.
For example, while the wholesale price of tur dal, a widely consumed pulse, rose by 50% to Rs 63 a kilo between August 26 of last and current year, its retail price jumped by 89%. Over the same period, the wholesale price of sugar rose 29.5% against a 44.2% jump at the retail level. Surprisingly, the retail price of gram dal,remained static at Rs 38 a kilo, while the wholesale price declined by 14%.
In metros such as Mumbai and Delhi, a physical market broker is the interface between the wholesaler and retailer. According to Anjani Sinha, MD and CEO of National Spot Market, the broker charges Rs 10, or 0.24% on a 50-kg bag of tur from a farmer who sells his produce on the pan-India electronic spot platform. And if transportation charges and wholesaler's margin are added to that cost, the retailer would be factoring in at least 15-20% as his own margin to the final cost a consumer pays, he adds.
Analyst Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at commodity futures bourse NCDEX, said retail margins remain high because retailers have to bear the risk of prices going down, while holding inventory for periods up to a month. The issue of high food prices, according to KV Thomas, minister of state for agriculture, is a major problem across the country with the exception of the southern states such as Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where state governments have set up co-operatives at the retail level to put a lid on food prices for above poverty line families.
"The South-based model of retail co-operatives has not succeeded in other parts of the country. While below poverty line families are taken care of by the public distribution system, administration in other states should at least mandate that retailers make public (to APL constituents) the amount of stock
Local kirana players, however, insist that there are no margins to be made in the commodities business. "A significant part of our costs is on account of the transportation charges that come in. And that is the only additional mark-up on commodities. How much profits can be made on a few sacks of grains," said a leading Mumbai-based kirana owner.
No rate hike till economy's back on track: RBI
NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will not raise key policy rates until the economy is back on the high-growth track, RBI governor
"We will not exit the expansionary monetary policy unless we are sure that recovery is secured... but soon after the recovery is secured, we have to unwind the accommodative monetary policy," Mr Subbarao said.
RBI will look at a number of factors like the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation, consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation, components within inflation, industrial growth and credit expansion, while unwinding the soft monetary policy. According to Mr Subbarao, there is need to keep a close check on capital inflows into the country as surplus cash in the global financial markets may find their way here if there is an interest rate arbitrage opportunity.
"This question of exit will be upon us much sooner than most of the country. We have to take a call on supporting the recovery and stemming inflationary pressure," he said.
Pointing out that negative WPI inflation is statistical in nature, Mr Subbarao said "there are inflationary pressure this fiscal ...and CPI inflation is in double digit".
RBI in its July monetary policy review had said the economy would grow at 6% or more in the current fiscal year while it raised its inflation forecast to 5% from 4% by the end of the financial year. Annual inflation as measured by WPI is currently at negative 0.12% in the week to August 29.
"The challenge before us is going to be withdrawing the monetary accommodation and supporting the drivers of growth," Mr Subbarao said. "We will not exit until we are sure the recovery is secure", even as inflationary pressure builds up. Gains in wholesale prices may exceed 5.2% by the end of March, he said.
Air fares slashed by 50% for next three days
| NEW DELHI: Air fares across all airlines was slashed by 50% for the next three days. The move comes after Jet Airways slashed air fares In a bid to lure back passengers, Jet Airways and Jet Airways Konnect had announced a 50 percent discount in fares for five days from Monday. Jet Airways executive director Saroj Dutta announced that the private carrier had suffered a loss of over Rs 200 crore ($40 million) on account of the pilots' stir since last Tuesday. This comes as a huge bonanza for passengers. Airlines recorded a double-digit growth in air traffic in August this year, according to official data released by the industry regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). Domestic airlines flew 3.67 million passengers in August against 2.92 million in the corresponding period last year—an increase of 26%.
Budget carriers IndiGo and Spice-Jet increased their market share to 13.9% and 12.3%, respectively in August while National Aviation Company of India (NACIL), which runs Air India, and Jet Airways saw their domestic customer base eroding during this period. While Jet airways has launched a low-fare brand JetKonnect, Kingfisher shifted its capacity to Kingfisher Red. Air India would soon launch its no-frills subsidiary Air India Express in the domestic market to compete with its rivals. | ||||||
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Gold seen above $1,100 in 2010 on central bank buying
DENVER: The price of gold could rise above $1,110 an ounce in 2010 as central banks diversify their reserves into gold due to a faltering Murenbeeld, president of Canada-based consultant DundeeWealth Economics, forecast gold could rise to an average of $1,116 an ounce in 2010. Spot gold was trading at around $1,002 an ounce on Tuesday. Bullion closed above $1,000 for the first time last Friday on the back of dollar weakness. In a keynote speech at the Gold Forum, an annual industry get-together, Murenbeeld said that there was a positive change in central banks' attitudes toward gold as an investment and a key part of their reserves. "The central banks and the G20 (countries) have complained more precipitously about the US dollar and the US monetary and fiscal policies, which leads them to think more and more about shifting their reserves," he said. "They don't have a lot of options for shifting their reserves, and gold is being mentioned more frequently as an important asset." Recently, China and other emerging economic powers have signaled growing interest in gold rather than stockpiling their currency reserves in US dollar-denominated assets. In addition, Murenbeeld, who is also an adjunct professor for the MBA program at the University of Victoria, said that gold is becoming increasingly used in investment portfolios for performance and lowering overall risks. "More and more portfolio managers are starting to think gold and commodities as an asset class," he said. Murenbeeld also said it was possible that a geopolitical event or crisis could drive gold prices sharply higher. "Slowly but surely, gold is going back to its days where it was being held in a precautionary form by people worry about currency debasement, inflation, whatever you worry about," he said. | |
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India changed attitude on Doha talks: UK min
NEW DELHI: India has changed its attitude towards the slow-moving Doha trade talks and sent a positive signal by hosting a September ministerial
Along with China, India's place at the global table in the G20 is likely to bolster collaboration on trade, Mervyn Davies told Reuters during a visit to the Indian capital.
New Delhi is seen as a key player in the Doha trade talks, which broke down last year in a dispute between the United States and developing nations, spearheaded by India, over farm tariffs and subsidies.
Led by a new trade minister who came to office after the ruling Congress party's coalition won a second term in May, India has made optimistic noises on reaching an agreement.
"I saw change in India," Davies said when asked about India's stance on Doha. "In India we've seen a realisation that Doha is important, that a global trade deal would have a hugely positive impact on world trade."
A successful Doha round could boost the global economy by $300-700 billion a year, according to a study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Leaders hope to clinch a deal by the end of 2010 and ward off protectionist policies that the World Trade Organisation has warned could slow recovery.
GAME CHANGER
Davies did not say by which date the deal could be signed but India had sent a "very positive" signal by hosting a trade ministers' meeting this month. Political will mattered more than disputes on specific issues to secure a deal, he said.
"We must not take the pressure off. We've got to all collectively be pushing for a global trade deal," he said.
The Doha Development Round was launched in late 2001 to boost global trade and help developing countries increase exports by lowering trade barriers.
New Delhi has insisted on measures to protect India from a possible surge in cheap imports that could swamp its millions of poor farmers.
The tough stance by India, which has weathered the financial crisis better than rich nations, has highlighted the growing clout of Asia's third biggest economy on global issues such as trade and climate change.
Davies said India and China's inclusion in the G20, which will shortly meet in Pittsburgh, had changed the nature of the dialogue in the world.
"(It) can only be good for collaboration around climate change, around trade, and around financial stability," he said.
Govt may ease norms for setting up medical colleges
NEW DELHI: The government will soon relax norms for the private sector to set up medical colleges in urban as well as rural areas.
The health ministry is working on a policy to allow the private sector to set up medical colleges on 10 acres of land, instead of the present requirement of a minimum 24 acres, Union health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said on Monday.
The announcement will provide a major boost to the private sector which is facing a space constraint in urban areas. It will also help the country meet the demand for medical colleges, which is on the rise. "In urban areas, we would look for vertical expansion instead of horizontal expansion," Mr Azad said in a FICCI healthcare conference.
For the development of rural areas, the government is also looking at a public-private partnership (PPP) model. Under the proposal, the private players would be allowed to set up medical colleges with the district hospitals as the nodal centres in rural areas, Mr Azad said.
He said these policy decisions have been taken by the ministry as part of the 100-days programme of the UPA government. The government would also provide special incentives to doctors practising in rural and remote areas.
"In hilly and backward areas, we have given a lot of priority and concession to public-private partnerships," Mr Azad said adding this has been done in order to increase human resource in the health sector. Mr Azad said the private sector can play a pivotal role in augmenting government's efforts towards providing healthcare to all, but on the flip-side it can be seen that the private sector costs are high and its penetration in rural areas is poor.
The minister pointed out that the National Rural Health Mission (NHRM) has provided the spurt in expansion of medical services. "In spite of a faster rate of growth in GDP, the expenditure on health has increased owing to NHRM," Azad said. The minister said that the government expenditure on health has gone up to 1.4% of GDP during 2008-09 as compared to 0.97% in 1999-2000.
After the launch of ambitious health project 'NHRM', institutional deliveries in rural areas have increased from 40.9% to 47% and full immunization coverage of children up to two years has gone up from 45.9% to 54.1% in 2007-08 as compared to 2002-04, the minister added.
Exporters set to get higher risk cover
NEW DELHI: In a move that will provide cushion to Indian exporters in uncertain global markets, and improve risk coverage, the government will
State-owned Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC), which promotes exports by providing cover to export risks on credit, has promised to increase risk cover of exporters by 5%, according to a senior ECGC official. The risk cover, given to banks by ECGC for its loans to exporters, will be increased by 10%.
To provide this additional credit cover to exporters and banks, ECGC will utilise an amount of Rs 350 crore allocated to it by the Centre under the corpus of the national exports insurance, which is being set up to support medium- and long-term business.
The amount was earmarked by the government to increase insurance coverage for exporters earlier this year as part of its incentive package to help the Indian industry survive the global slowdown. ECGC expects an initial cover to banks and exporters will not exceed Rs 60 crore in the current fiscal year.
"ECGC had sold about 14,500 policies in 2008-09 and it is expecting a 5% increase in sales this fiscal year," said ECGC chairman and managing director AV Muralidharan, while speaking at an interactive seminar organised by Fieo in New Delhi. The interaction was attended by more than 100 exporters from Delhi and NCR.
The Indian export sector has been badly hit because of payment defaults by buyers globally, especially in Western markets due to the global economic downturn. "Highest default claims are coming from the US with about 25% of the overall claims originating from that country," he added.
FIEO director-general Ajay Sahai, who was also present at the meet said the Chinese government has provided export credit insurance worth $84 billion to cover export risks.
Posco plans foundation | ||
| OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | ||
Bhubaneswar, Sept. 15: South Korean steel major Posco has announced plans to set up a foundation to launch vocational training programmes in an apparent bid to win over local residents who are resisting land acquisition for its proposed 12 MTPA plant near Paradip port. "We are going to set up Posco Foundation to take up health, education and vocational training in the area of our operations," Posco chief executive officer Joon Yang Chung told reporters at the state secretariat here this evening after meeting chief minister Naveen Patnaik. "It will be a win-win situation both for the local villagers and Posco," he said, adding that the company would engage best consultants for the project. The South Korean steel major had signed an MoU with the Orissa government in June, 2005 for setting up a 12 MTPA steel plant near Paradip port. Billed as the biggest FDI project with an investment of $12 billion, the mega steel plant has, howevern failed to take off due to resistance by local residents. Of the total requirement of 4,004 acre, around 500 acre is private land. So far, the state government has failed to acquire any private land because of the stiff resistance by local residents. Asked whether the land acquisition problem had been solved, Joon said, "We know the state government is making all efforts. We will support the state government." The Posco chief held talks with Patnaik today for more than an hour. "We did have a very fruitful discussion on how to expedite the Posco Orissa project," he told reporters. However, he refused to spell out details. This was Joon's second visit to Orissa. He was here in November, 2005 when he was president of the company. On August 26, Posco India chairman Dong-He Lee had met the chief minister and reiterated the company's commitment to go ahead with its Orissa project. Scotching rumours that they were looking to move their mega steel plant project out of Orissa, Dong-Hee had said Posco would begin construction early next year. "By end of this year, all the legal barriers will be cleared and probably next year we will start construction work," the Posco India chairman had said. |
Accounting road map by November | ||
| OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | ||
Calcutta, Sept. 15: The corporate affairs ministry will soon come out with a road map for companies planning to switch to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) from April 1, 2011 from the Indian Accounting Standards. The IFRS is a global accounting format, which can be used by companies in any country to state their financials. By switching to this platform, an Indian company's financials can be compared with any firm in the US, which follows this accounting standard. Speaking to reporters after a seminar organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce, corporate affairs minister Salman Khurshid said, "We'll announce the road map in November." The ministry had earlier announced that all listed and public interest companies and smaller companies having a debt of Rs 250 crore would have to compulsorily switch to the IFRS from the financial year beginning April 1, 2011. But as of now, besides the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda), no other regulators have revealed road maps for companies under their regulations for the convergence. "We are in talks with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and other regulators on this. However, we have not yet decided which categories of corporations will have to follow this road map compulsorily," Khurshid said. Smaller companies have already started lobbying the ministry to relax the April 2011 deadline as the convergence to the IFRS involves high costs. The minister didn't say anything explicitly, but it is understood that the threshold (of a company) for complying with the convergence deadline can be relaxed. The minister didn't clarify whether the road map would provide relaxation on the requirement of "parallel reporting". A condition for the adoption of the IFRS from 2011-12 is that companies will have to restate their accounts for 2010-11 both under the IFRS and the Indian standard. There is, however, no clear direction either from the government or from individual regulators on this. The IFRS will have a significant impact on revenues, assets and liabilities and earnings per share of companies. Besides, it will also affect the capital position of companies. For example, there is no concept of preference capital under the IFRS. Preference capital is considered as debt under the IFRS. Convergence to IFRS will also require changes in the income tax rules. |
Global oil duo eye Vizag stake |
| OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT |
| New Delhi, Sept. 15: Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation could be interested in the $10-billion refinery-cum-petrochemical project at Visakhapatnam, following the decision of France's Total to leave the project. "Total has informed us that they would like to put their participation in the project on hold for the time being," sources in HPCL, which is heading the consortium, said. The consortium is now looking for partners, and some feelers have come in, they said. "The project is not going anywhere as of now. With Mittal and Total not participating, we have put the project on hold," they said. In November, Lakshmi Mittal had "put on hold" his investment in the project after recession in Europe hit his firm's fortunes. A consortium of five firms — HPCL, GAIL, Oil India, Mittal Investment Sarl and Total — had signed a memorandum of understanding to look at the feasibility of the project. The export-oriented refinery was proposed to have a capacity of 14 million tonnes a year, while the petrochemical plant was to have a one-million-tonne capacity. Total was leading the project feasibility and demand studies, while GAIL was in charge of the study on the petrochemical unit. The equity structure and project finances were to be decided after the feasibility studies were completed later this year. The sources said HPCL, GAIL and Oil India were to hold a 49 per cent stake in the Vizag project, while Mittal Investment Sarl and Total were to hold another 49 per cent. The remaining 2 per cent were to be offered to financial institutions. Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) had earlier held discussions with the consortium but could not reach an agreement as their terms were not acceptable to the partners. While Saudi Aramco had sought a minimum of 30 per cent in the refinery project, KPC was insisting on being the sole crude supplier and wanted the output to be sold locally. The conditions are not acceptable to HPCL. However, with Total and Mittal putting their participation on hold, sources said the offers of Saudi Aramco and KPC could be re-examined. The only-for-exports refinery was being planned to target Southeast Asia and West Asia. About 2,500 acres near HPCL's existing 7.5mt refinery at Visakhapatnam has been acquired for the project. |
Tatas plan it big in Karnataka | ||
| OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | ||
Calcutta, Sept. 15: Tata Metaliks, India's largest pig iron manufacturer, is planning a large steel plant in Karnataka. Chairman Hemant Nerurkar said it would like to build a plant with a capacity of 3-5 million tonnes. The company, a subsidiary of Tata Steel where Nerurkar is the executive director for the Indian and Southeast Asian operations, had earlier considered a 1mt plant. However, it is now thinking big. "It does not make sense to put up a small plant. So, we are looking at 3-5mt capacity. But nothing is finalised as yet," Nerurkar, who is tipped to take charge at Tata Steel when managing director B. Muthuraman retires this month, said. The Karnataka government has identified 900 acres for the company. The state is also scouting for iron ore mines for a lease to Tata Metaliks. Harsh K. Jha, managing director of Tata Metaliks, said the company would require 250-300 million tonnes of iron ore deposits. "Our investment is conditional upon getting iron ore mine lease there," Jha said. Jha and Nerurkar were speaking to reporters after the 19th annual general meeting of Tata Metaliks. The Calcutta-headquartered company had plans to put up a steel plant in Bengal, next to its existing pig iron plant at Kharagpur. It scrapped the project following a delay in land acquisition. The Karnataka project would cost Rs 12,000-15,000 crore if the Tatas set up a 3mt plant. However, arranging finance could be a tough call for Tata Metaliks, which had a turnover of Rs 1,000 crore last fiscal. There is a possibility that Tata Steel may team up with it, given the magnitude of the project. |
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