Emerging Balochistan threat

Emerging Balochistan threat
—Shaukat Qadir
http://www.dailytim es.com.pk/ default.asp? page=2008\08\30\story_ 30-8-
2008_pg3_4

While the attention of the world is focused on the deteriorating
situation in FATA, there are developments taking place in
Balochistan that could, in the long run, pose a far greater threat
to the federation of Pakistan, particularly in view of the strategic
significance of this province that I have highlighted earlier.
("Strategic significance of Balochistan" , August 16)

The disillusionment of the ethnic Baloch in this province with the
federation of Pakistan and the feeling of being exploited by Punjab
have been steadily on the increase for decades. In fact, Baloch
nationalism and an increasing desire for independence from the
Pakistani federation have never before been as vocal or visible as
today. It has reached its boiling point and, unless the grievances
of the Baloch are addressed with great urgency, there is more than a
likelihood that Pakistan may find itself hemmed by two insurgencies;
one at each extremity.

Since the peace initiative with India began to make progress after
2002, there was a growing view among Indian analysts and an
acknowledgement among Pakistani analysts that India has realised
that a stable Pakistan is in its interest. However, there now
appears incontrovertible evidence that India is promoting unrest in
Balochistan. Perhaps, while India is still keen to see a stable
Pakistan, it is not prepared to see one making the kind of economic
progress with which it could outpace India, or one that is
capitalising on the `strategic geographic location' possible if
Balochistan were at peace.

What India perhaps fails to appreciate is that not only are there
other, more powerful actors in this game, even if it were to succeed
in liberating Balochistan from Pakistan, Balochistan is not in
itself a politically and economically viable entity. If severed from
Pakistan, without the support from a more powerful and reliable ally
than India, it is most likely to seek a union with Iran with which
it has historical and ethnic linkages; and Iran is definitely an
interested party in the ongoing geo-strategic game.

What is more, Balochistan falling into Iranian hands would create a
far more competitive regional power that could threaten Indian
interests in the long run, more than Pakistan ever could. It would
raise eyebrows not only in China but would be unacceptable to the US
as well.

Let us also not forget that the US is also not an uninterested party
in this game that threatens Pakistan. The last thing that the US
would like to see is Balochistan forming a union with Iran. However,
it will not be averse to an independent Balochistan, dependent on
the US. In which eventuality, it will also effectively scuttle
China's hopes of entering the Indian Ocean and having a naval
presence at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It will also deprive
China of the economic growth that could result from the flow of
commerce and energy from Central Asia through China and Pakistan.

As a matter of fact, a large number of Baloch nationalists are
openly saying, `America is coming' and `we are waiting for it'.
Unfortunately, if the Americans do come, the Baloch will suffer far
more at their hands than they have within the Pakistani union. But
they don't know this to be fact, and who can blame them for wanting
a change?

Over the last few months there has also been a steady flow of
Afghan `refugees' into Balochistan, who have been welcomed by the
Baloch Pashtuns, resulting in a shift in the demographic balance in
favour of the Pashtuns in the province. These `refugees' are also
Taliban who have already formed a Shoora, the council of elders
along the lines of the Islamic Caliphate in the times of the Prophet
Muhammad PBUH.

However, they are not preaching the Islam of yore or that of peace,
one of the meanings of the word `Islam'; they are breeding hate, and
are lying low, biding their time. I have no doubt that the Pakistani
authorities are aware of this looming threat, but no one is prepared
to voice it at a time when the newly elected government is looking
increasingly incompetent.

Ironically, the only ray of hope for saving the Pakistani federation
lies in the diverse aims of the two sources of threat to the
federation posed by the Balochistan situation.

If they are not appeased in time, the Baloch will be looking for an
independent homeland, in a loose union with the US or Iran; while
the Taliban will be looking for a safe haven in the inaccessible
regions of Balochistan, but within the union of Pakistan. The latter
are fully conscious of how helpless they will be against American
might if they no longer enjoy the protection of Pakistan; even if
that protection is steadily eroding its ability to defend its
citizens against American incursions.

The tragedy is that whichever way the wind blows in Balochistan,
even if the diversity of the aims of the two parties results in
keeping the union intact, once unrest starts, it can only result in
hampering Pakistan's hopes for a bright economic future. Perhaps
that is the limited aim India has set for itself.

If so, I will repeat my submission of a couple of years ago that
whatever economic growth India achieves through its `Silicon
Valley', it will remain a third world country without access to
substantial sources of cheap energy. So far, wherever possible, the
cheapest means of access to oil or gas is through overland
pipelines, for which India is dependant on a peaceful Pakistan,
particularly Balochistan. Perhaps India feels complacent with its
nuclear deal with the US, which might result in fulfilling India's
energy needs through nuclear energy. However, Pakistan can redress
this problem if, in this case, it acts quickly and decisively.

This article is a modified version of the original written for the
daily National