Scientists have warned of more great earthquakes - of the magnitude 8 to 8.5 - in the Himalayas!Who cares?

Scientists have warned of more great earthquakes - of the magnitude 8 to 8.5 - in the Himalayas!Who cares?
Troubled Galaxy destroyed Dreams, Chapter:831

Palash Biswas

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The Main Himalayan Thrust has historically been responsible for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake every several hundred years. (Credit: Illustration: Warren Caldwell)

The Himalayas in India is aborigin indigenous humanscape subjected to persecution. The Himalayan region is abundant with natural resources. The Hegemony is interested to extract the resources without considering environment, ecology and human life there which have enormous impact over rest of the country. The nation is heavily dependent on the Himalayas for water and energy. But the beautiful landscape is misused as tourist destination only. Land mafia and promoter builder raj have the final say in the region. The people have no voice whatsoever in policy making which means destruction and destruction all on the name of governance and development. Most of the Himalayas in India is ruled with Armed Forces special Power Act and remains subjected to draconian repression. Nepa in neighbourhood is under severe political turmoil and is quite indifferent to ecology and environment. How to prepare for the imminent natural disaster, happens to be nobody`s concern.Residents of the Himalayas could be at great risk of a massive earthquake according to new research which shows that two massive earthquake over the past millennia have left visible ground scars.Such a finding is of critical importance to the region, a region which has a similar population density to that of New York City but with far fewer governmental resources.



However,Scientists have warned of more great earthquakes - of the magnitude 8 to 8.5 - in the Himalayas, especially in areas with their surface yet to be broken by a temblor.A research team led by Nanyang Technological University (NTU) has discovered that massive earthquakes in the range of 8 to 8.5 magnitudes on the Richter scale have left clear ground scars in the central Himalayas.

This ground-breaking discovery has huge implications for the area along the front of the Himalayan Mountains, researchers said in a statement.

Paul Tapponnier, a leading neotectonics scientist, said that the existence of such devastating quakes in the past means that quakes of the same magnitude could happen again in the region in future, especially in areas which have yet to have their surface broken by a temblor.

The study showed that in 1255 and 1934, two great earthquakes ruptured the surface of the earth in the Himalayas. This runs contrary to what scientists have previously thought.

Massive earthquakes are not unknown in the Himalayas, as quakes in 1897, 1905, 1934 and 1950 all had magnitudes between 7.8 and 8.9, each causing tremendous damage. But they were previously thought not to have broken the earth's surface - classified as blind quakes - which are much more difficult to track.

However, Tapponnier said that by combining new high resolution imagery and state of the art dating techniques, they could show that the 1934 earthquake did indeed rupture the surface, breaking the ground over a length of more than 150 kilometres, essentially south of the part of the range that harbours Mount Everest.

This break formed along the main fault in Nepal that currently marks the boundary between the Indian and Asian tectonic plates - also known as the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault.

Using radiocarbon dating of offset river sediments and collapsed hill-slope deposits, the researchers managed to separate several episodes of tectonic movement on this major fault and pin the dates of the two quakes, about 7 centuries apart.

Tapponnier warns that the long interval between the two recently discovered earthquake ruptures does not mean people should be complacent, thinking that there is still time before the next major earthquake happens in the region.

"The significance of this finding is that earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 8.5 may return at most twice per millennium on this stretch of the fault, which allows for a better assessment of the risk they pose to the surrounding communities," said Professor Paul Tapponnier of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geosciences, showed that two specific quakes – one in 1255 and another in 1934 – were in fact ground-breaking quakes, rather than 'blind quakes', earthquakes that did not rupture the surface.

The region is not hidden from earthquakes, having suffered quakes of magnitude 7.8 and higher in 1897, 1905, 1934 and 1950. However these quakes were all thought t be blind quakes.

Prof Tapponnier, however, combined new high resolution imagery and 'state of the art dating techniques' to determine that the 1934 earthquake did in fact rupture the surface, breaking the ground over a length of more than 150 kilometres.

This surface rupture formed along the main fault in Nepal that is the current boundary between the Indian and Asian tectonic plates, known as the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault.

Despite the massive gaps between the two quakes Prof Tapponnier and his team found, the professor warns that there is no need to become lax thinking that the next earthquake is not for many years to come.

"This does not imply that the next mega-earthquake in the Himalayas will occur many centuries from now because we still do not know enough about adjacent segments of the MFT Mega-thrust," Prof Tapponier explains. "But it does suggest that areas west or east of the 1934 Nepal ground rupture are now at greater risk of a major earthquake, since there are little or no records of when last earth shattering temblor happened in those two areas."



Prof Tapponnier will now attempt to determine the full extent of the fault ruptures in an effort to build a more comprehensive model of earthquake hazards along the Himalayan front.

Read more at

http://planetsave.com/2012/12/30/himalayas-should-prepare-for-mammoth-earthquakes/#GesKe9xUdZReyuWE.99

* Environmental Problems General Info Man-made problems ·  Forest degradation ·  Overgrazing ·  Fires ·  Quarrying ·  Landslides ·  Mountaineering ·  Trekking ·  Road construction Natural Processes   Earthquakes ·  Glaciers ·  Avalanches ·  River and stream erosion

*

Earthquakes Earthquakes pose the greatest threat to the Himalayan region. Almost the entire Himalayas are prone to high seismic activity or earthquakes. Earthquakes have hit the region several times in the past and similar threats remain inevitable in the future too. The Himalayas, as we know, were formed by the head-on collision of Indian and Eurasian plates. The mountain building process is still going on because the Indian plate is still moving towards the Eurasian plate. The Indian plate is pushing the Asian plate northward at the rate of about 2 cm per year. This means that in every 100 years India moves 200 cm north against the Asian plate. This colliding force builds up pressure continually for several years and this pressure is released in the form of earthquakes from time to time. Usually the barren cold desert regions have experienced less devastation from earthquakes than other parts of the Himalayan mountain chain, probably due to the low population. Four major earthquakes have occurred in the Himalayan region in the past 100 years. The famous earthquake that hit Nepal in 1933 A.D. killed thousands of people in Nepal and northern India. Several earthquakes have occurred since that time. The Indian Himalayas have experienced some significantly strong earthquakes in the last few decades. Kinnaur Earthquake (1975) This earthquake struck in the early afternoon of January 19, 1975. It caused havoc in parts of the Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti regions of India. It is believed to have been caused by movements along a fault known as the Kaurik fault. This quake killed hundreds of people and caused severe damage to property. A massive landslide was triggered off by this earthquake near Maling in the Spiti Valley. Another giant landslide blocked the Paro chu River near Sumdo. Many smaller occurrences of slope failure were caused by this earthquake. As a result, communications remained disrupted for several days and helicopter services had to be pressed into operation to bring relief to the worst-affected areas. Dharchula Earthquake (1980) This was another devastating earthquake that struck Dharchula and surrounding areas of the Pithoragarh District in the Kumaon Himalayas. It occurred in December 1980. Displacement along a deep-seated fault is believed to have been the cause of this quake that affected parts of the inner dry valleys of Pithoragarh District. Uttarkashi Earthquake (1991) In the early morning hours of October 14, 1991, a severe earthquake shook Uttarkashi and Chamoli districts of Garhwal. It caused widespread loss of life and property. This earthquake also affected other parts of Garhwal and Kinnaur. The regions remained cut off from the rest of the world for several days due to the debris. Landslides occurred at several locations, and it took a significant amount of time for people to recover from this incident.

http://library.thinkquest.org/10131/problems_earthquakes.html

Images for massive earthquakes Himalayas

- Report images

• 8 hours ago

• 8 hours ago

• 12 hours ago

1. Himalayan Kinematics, earthquakes and seismic gaps

2. cires.colorado.edu/~bilham/indexHimEq.html
3. In the past 50 years more than 94,000 people have been killed by building collapse and avalanches associated with Himalayan earthquakes. In the same time ...

4. Rescue effort continues after Himalayan earthquake kills dozens ...

5. www.guardian.co.uk › ... › Natural disasters and extreme weather
6. 19 Sep 2011 – Heavy rain and thick cloud hamper relief operations after more than 100000 homes in India, Nepal and Tibet were hit.

7. Himalayan earthquake death toll hits 81 - CBS News

8. www.cbsnews.com/2100-202_162-20108801.html
9. 20 Sep 2011 – Many communities in India, Nepal and China remain cut off and authorities fear death toll could rise after 6.9 quake.

10. The Great Himalayan Earthquakes | Himalayan Club

11. www.himalayanclub.org/journal/the-great-himalayan-earthquakes/
12. The earliest Himalayan earthquake on record dates back to 1255 in Kathmandu in which (according to a historical document) 'one third of the Kingdom of Nepal ...

13. Death Toll in Himalayan Earthquake Exceeds 50 - NYTimes.com

14. www.nytimes.com/.../more-than-20-die-in-himalayan-earthquake.ht...
15. 19 Sep 2011 – Rescue workers in India scrambled to reach villages in the remote state of Sikkim on Monday, where at least 40 people have died and dozens ...

16. Images for himalayan earthquakes

17. - Report images

18. 1255 Himalayas Earthquake Killed King Of Nepal And May Have ...

19. www.huffingtonpost.com/.../1255-himalayas-earthquake_n_232167...
20. 18 Dec 2012 – By Charles Q. Choi, OurAmazingPlanet Contributor In 1255, before the modern study of earthquakes shed light on some of their inner workings, ...

21. News for himalayan earthquakes

1. Scientists warn of high magnitude earthquakes in the Himalayas
2. IBNLive ‎- 48 minutes ago
3. Scientists have warned of more earthquakes - of the magnitude 8 to 8.5 - in the Himalayas, especially in areas with their surface yet to be ...

22. Primary surface ruptures of the great Himalayan earthquakes - Nature

23. www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n1/full/ngeo1669.html
24. 16 Dec 2012 – The recurrence times of great Himalayan earthquakes are difficult to assess because they rarely rupture the surface. Field mapping and 14C ...

25. Himalayas may experience major earthquakes: Study - The Hindu ...

26. www.thehindubusinessline.com/.../himalayas...earthquakes.../article4...
27. Keywords: Geologic features, The Himalayas, mountain range, plains of Indian subcontinent, Tibetan Plateau, major earthquakes, Stanford Geophysicists, ...

28. Himalayan earthquakes did break the surface in 1255 and 1934 ...

29. ktwop.wordpress.com/.../himalayan-earthquakes-did-break-the-surfa...
30. 9 hours ago – Contrary to the belief that Himalayan earthquakes are blind quakes, novel imaging and dating techniques show that Great Himalayan ...

31. Himalayan Earthquake - Sep 2011 | ReliefWeb

32. reliefweb.int/disaster/eq-2011-000136-ind
33. A strong 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit northeast India on 18 Sep 2011 in the small, landlocked Himalayan state of Sikkim, which borders Nepal, Bhutan and ...

Pacific Northwest and Himalayas Could Experience Major Earthquakes, Geophysicists Say

Dec. 4, 2012 — Research by Stanford scientists focuses on geologic features and activity in the Himalayas and Pacific Northwest that could mean those areas are primed for major earthquakes.

A big one in the Himalayas

The Himalayan range was formed, and remains currently active, due to the collision of the Indian and Asian continental plates. Scientists have known for some time that India is subducting under Asia, and have recently begun studying the complexity of this volatile collision zone in greater detail, particularly the fault that separates the two plates, the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT).

Previous observations had indicated a relatively uniform fault plane that dipped a few degrees to the north. To produce a clearer picture of the fault, Warren Caldwell, a geophysics doctoral student at Stanford, has analyzed seismic data from 20 seismometers deployed for two years across the Himalayas by colleagues at the National Geophysical Research Institute of India.

The data imaged a thrust dipping a gentle two to four degrees northward, as has been previously inferred, but also revealed a segment of the thrust that dips more steeply (15 degrees downward) for 20 kilometers. Such a ramp has been postulated to be a nucleation point for massive earthquakes in the Himalaya.

Although Caldwell emphasized that his research focuses on imaging the fault, not on predicting earthquakes, he noted that the MHT has historically been responsible for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake every several hundred years.

"What we're observing doesn't bear on where we are in the earthquake cycle, but it has implications in predicting earthquake magnitude," Caldwell said. "From our imaging, the ramp location is a bit farther north than has been previously observed, which would create a larger rupture width and a larger magnitude earthquake."

Caldwell will present a poster detailing the research on Dec. 4 at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

Caldwell's adviser, geophysics Professor Simon Klemperer, added that recent detections of magma and water around the MHT indicate which segments of the thrust will rupture during an earthquake.
"We think that the big thrust vault will probably rupture southward to the Earth's surface, but we don't expect significant rupture north of there," Klemperer said. The findings are important for creating risk assessments and disaster plans for the heavily populated cities in the region.

Klemperer spoke about the evolution of geophysical studies of the Himalayas Dec. 3 at the same meeting in San Francisco.

Measuring small tremors in the Pacific Northwest

The Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from northern California to Vancouver Island, has not experienced a major seismic event since it ruptured in 1700, an 8.7-9.2 magnitude earthquake that shook the region and created a tsunami that reached Japan. And while many geophysicists believe the fault is due for a similar scale event, the relative lack of any earthquake data in the Pacific Northwest makes it difficult to predict how ground motion from a future event would propagate in the Cascadia area, which runs through Seattle, Portland and Vancouver.

Stanford postdoctoral scholar Annemarie Baltay will present research on how measurements of small seismic tremors in the region can be utilized to determine how ground motion from larger events might behave. Baltay's research involves measuring low amplitude tectonic tremor that occurs 30 kilometers below Earth's surface, at the intersections of tectonic plates, roughly over the course of a month each year.

By analyzing how the tremor signal decays along and away from the Cascadia subduction zone, Baltay can calculate how ground motion activity from a larger earthquake will dissipate. An important application of the work will be to help inform new construction how best to mitigate damage should a large earthquake strike.

"We can't predict when an earthquake will occur, but we can try to be very prepared for them," Baltay said. "Looking at these episodic tremor events can help us constrain what the ground motion might be like in a certain place during an earthquake."

Though Baltay has focused on the Cascadia subduction zone, she said that the technique could be applied in areas of high earthquake risk around the world, such as Alaska and Japan.
Baltay will present a poster presentation of the research on Dec. 5 in San Francisco.

Cascadia quake simulations

The slow slip and tremor events in Cascadia are also being studied by Stanford geophysics Professor Paul Segall, although in an entirely different manner. Segall's group uses computational models of the region to determine whether the cumulative effects of many small events can trigger a major earthquake.

"You have these small events every 15 months or so, and a magnitude 9 earthquake every 500 years. We need to known whether you want to raise an alert every time one of these small events happens," Segall said. "We're doing sophisticated numerical calculations to simulate these slow events and see whether they do relate to big earthquakes over time. What our calculations have shown is that ultimately these slow events do evolve into the ultimate fast event, and it does this on a pretty short time scale."

Unfortunately, so far Segall's group has not seen any obvious differences in the numerical simulations between the average slow slip event and those that directly precede a big earthquake. The work is still young, and Segall noted that the model needs refinement to better match actual observations and to possibly identify the signature of the event that triggers a large earthquake.

"We're not so confident in our model that public policy should be based on the output of our calculations, but we're working in that direction," Segall said.

One thing that makes Segall's work difficult is a lack of data from actual earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Earlier this year, however, earthquakes in Mexico and Costa Rica occurred in areas that experience slow slip events similar to those in Cascadia. Segall plans to speak with geophysicists who have studied the lead-up to those earthquakes to compare the data to his simulations.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121204112217.htm

Earthquakes: Where will next 'big one' be?

"We can't predict when an earthquake will occur, but we can try to be very prepared for them," says Annemarie Baltay. "Looking at these episodic tremor events can help us constrain what the ground motion might be like in a certain place during an earthquake." (Credit: Tony Case/Flickr)

STANFORD (US) —The geologic features and seismic activity in the Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could mean those areas are primed for major earthquakes.

The Himalayan range was formed, and remains currently active, due to the collision of the Indian and Asian continental plates. Scientists have known for some time that India is subducting under Asia, and have recently begun studying the complexity of this volatile collision zone in greater detail, particularly the fault that separates the two plates, the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT).
Previous observations had indicated a relatively uniform fault plane that dipped a few degrees to the north. To produce a clearer picture of the fault, Warren Caldwell, a geophysics doctoral student at Stanford University, has analyzed seismic data from 20 seismometers deployed for two years across the Himalayas by colleagues at the National Geophysical Research Institute of India.
The Main Himalayan Thrust has historically been responsible for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake every several hundred years. View larger. (Credit: Warren Caldwell)
The data imaged a thrust dipping a gentle two to four degrees northward, as has been previously inferred, but also revealed a segment of the thrust that dips more steeply (15 degrees downward) for 20 kilometers. Such a ramp has been postulated to be a nucleation point for massive earthquakes in the Himalaya.
Although Caldwell emphasizes his research focuses on imaging the fault, not on predicting earthquakes, he notes that the MHT has historically been responsible for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake every several hundred years.
"What we're observing doesn't bear on where we are in the earthquake cycle, but it has implications in predicting earthquake magnitude," he says. "From our imaging, the ramp location is a bit farther north than has been previously observed, which would create a larger rupture width and a larger magnitude earthquake."
Caldwell's adviser, Simon Klemperer, professor of geophysics, adds that recent detections of magma and water around the MHT indicate which segments of the thrust will rupture during an earthquake.
"We think that the big thrust vault will probably rupture southward to the Earth's surface, but we don't expect significant rupture north of there," Klemperer says.
The findings are important for creating risk assessments and disaster plans for the heavily populated cities in the region.
Small tremors in Pacific Northwest
The Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from northern California to Vancouver Island, has not experienced a major seismic event since it ruptured in 1700, an 8.7–9.2 magnitude earthquake that shook the region and created a tsunami that reached Japan.
While many geophysicists believe the fault is due for a similar scale event, the relative lack of any earthquake data in the Pacific Northwest makes it difficult to predict how ground motion from a future event would propagate in the Cascadia area, which runs through Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver.
Stanford postdoctoral scholar Annemarie Baltay presented research on how measurements  of small seismic tremors in the region can be utilized to determine how ground motion from larger events might behave. Baltay's research involves measuring low amplitude tectonic tremor that occurs 30 kilometers below Earth's surface, at the intersections of tectonic plates, roughly over the course of a month each year.
By analyzing how the tremor signal decays along and away from the Cascadia subduction zone, Baltay can calculate how ground motion activity from a larger earthquake will dissipate. An important application of the work will be to help inform new construction how best to mitigate damage should a large earthquake strike.
"We can't predict when an earthquake will occur, but we can try to be very prepared for them," Baltay says. "Looking at these episodic tremor events can help us constrain what the ground motion might be like in a certain place during an earthquake."
Though Baltay has focused on the Cascadia subduction zone, she says the technique could be applied in areas of high earthquake risk around the world, such as Alaska and Japan.
Cascadia quake simulations
The slow slip and tremor events in Cascadia are also being studied by Stanford geophysics Professor Paul Segall, although in an entirely different manner. Segall's group uses computational models of the region to determine whether the cumulative effects of many small events can trigger a major earthquake.
"You have these small events every 15 months or so, and a magnitude 9 earthquake every 500 years. We need to known whether you want to raise an alert every time one of these small events happens," Segall says.
"We're doing sophisticated numerical calculations to simulate these slow events and see whether they do relate to big earthquakes over time. What our calculations have shown is that ultimately these slow events do evolve into the ultimate fast event, and it does this on a pretty short time scale."
Unfortunately, so far Segall's group has not seen any obvious differences in the numerical simulations between the average slow slip event and those that directly precede a big earthquake. The work is still young, and Segall notes that the model needs refinement to better match actual observations and to possibly identify the signature of the event that triggers a large earthquake.
"We're not so confident in our model that public policy should be based on the output of our calculations, but we're working in that direction," he says.
One thing that makes Segall's work difficult is a lack of data from actual earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Earlier this year, however, earthquakes in Mexico and Costa Rica occurred in areas that experience slow slip events similar to those in Cascadia.
The researchers all presented their findings at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union earlier this month in San Francisco.
Source: Stanford University

EDITORIAL: Happy Doomsday

Mayan prediction could have turned out worse

By THE WASHINGTON TIMES

-

The Washington Times
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES

-

Friday, December 21, 2012
The world didn't end today. Those who had feared an ancient Mayan prophecy meant the apocalypse can breathe a sigh of relief. Pessimists, though, can feel free to continue holding their breath until the stroke of midnight, just to be sure. Then, Americans among them can turn their attention to a more immediate danger: the "fiscal cliff"' that threatens to flatten the nation's economy.
Dec. 21, 2012, is the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year. Some thought it would be even shorter than usual because the Maya, who carved a civilization out of the jungles of Central America between A.D. 200 and 900, had foreseen this day as the moment when planet Earth would reach its expiration date. A poll taken in May by the research firm Ipsos found 10 percent of the world's population believed the Mayan calendar "marks the end of the world." In addition to spectacular ruins, this ancient people left behind a "Long Count" calendar that stretched backward in time to a theoretical inception in 3,114 B.C. and forward to an endpoint, which happens to be today.
In recent years, doomsayers, occult practitioners and Hollywood moguls seized upon the prediction as a subject for faith, fun and profit. Some adopted a Web rumor that a rogue planet called Nibiru would emerge from space and smash Earth to pieces. Others worried that a black hole at the center of our galaxy would suck the planet into its powerful vortex. Still others trekked to Mayan ruins in the Guatemalan rain forest, where they sensed the vibes of renewal rather than destruction. "The force is strong here," Jimena Teijeiro of Argentina told Reuters. "We are being propelled to a new age of light, synchronicity and simple wonderment with life."
The less hopeful purchased "bug-out" bunkers — shelters buried underground to which people could escape to wait out any unfolding disaster. Deep Earth Bunker, a Dallas-based company, sold more than 1,400 units to the fearful using a simple pitch: "Where will you go?" Prices range from $50,000 for basic structures for small families to $10 million for community shelters that hold hundreds.
In 2009, the disaster film "2012" reached the silver screen, portraying the prophecy's fulfillment in the form of a massive solar flare that heats the Earth's core and triggers catastrophic earthquakes. Thanks to special effects that include a vision of Los Angeles falling into the sea and tsunamis inundating Asia up to the Himalayas, the movie earned about $700 million worldwide. Subsequent disaster programs debuted on cable TV, including the National Geographic Channel's "Doomsday Preppers," which depicts survivalists preparing for various end-of-the-world scenarios such as destruction by a terrorist-delivered electromagnetic pulse, economic collapse and global pandemics.
All of this is a distraction from the real disasters that lie on the horizon. The national debt stands just under $16.4 trillion, and unfunded liabilities owed to Social Security and Medicare recipients add another $59 trillion to the total, according to the National Center for Policy Analysis. In addition to the federal sea of red ink, state and local pension programs are equally insolvent, with politicians resistant to efforts to bring budgets back into balance. Rather than going boom, the world is simply going bust.
The Washington Times


Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/21/happy-doomsday/#ixzz2GYdhzsqM
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