LOUD CHANTS OF NaMo RISE IN AKHILESH LAND BJP is expected to get 27 of the 80 parliamentary seats, nearly thrice the number the saffron party managed to secure in its past two outings in the state. The swing for the party increased after it named Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate
Asaffron surge appears to be building up in Uttar Pradesh, with the BJP eating into the support base of its rivals in India's most populous state. The ET poll points to a high voting intention for the BJP and its emergence as the dominant party in the state. With a projected vote share of 28%, the country's main opposition is expected to get 27 of the 80 parliamentary seats. This is nearly thrice the number of seats the party managed to secure in its past two outings in the state. The survey, carried out after the communal clashes in western Uttar Pradesh, has an unequivocal warning for the ruling Samajwadi Party: anger among Muslims, its key supporters, over the state government's failure to protect their interests. The SP is expected to lose heavily and end up with 16 seats, down from the 23 it won the last time round. This could put paid to SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's plans to pitch himself as the prime ministerial candidate of the Third Front. As per the survey, the BJP is gaining from a significant backing of the upper castes and the non-Yadavs among the Other Backward Classes. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, which managed to win the support of the upper castes in the previous elections, may cede this base to the BJP. But even as the BSP's vote share is expected to drop to 25% from 28%, it is projected to win 20 Lok Sabha seats, the same as it did in the 2009 elections. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who has been concentrating on the revival of his party in the heartland states, does not seem to be having much success. The Congress — which figures at the bottom of the popularity chart among the top four parties, with just 17%% of the respondents naming it as their party of choice — is expected to see its share of seats slide to 12 from 21. The support for the Congress comes essentially from the eastern part of Uttar Pradesh. According to the survey, the voting intention for the BJP went up considerably after the party named Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. Modi's supporters in the BJP had argued that only the Gujarat chief minister could re-energise the cadre and bring back the social groupings that had migrated to rivals such as the BSP. All Remember Maya in Junior Netaji's Regime Akhilesh Yadav was widely credited for the Samajwadi Party's triumph in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections last year and welcomed as a change agent in the underdeveloped state plagued with corruption and crime. Nineteen months later, the 40-year-old chief minister appears to have lost his sheen. The survey shows that most voters are disappointed with the SP government's performance, a finding that signals trouble for the party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, especially since rival Mayawati appears to be gaining from this rapid disenchantment with the party that ousted her from power. More voters vouched for the previous government's ability to fulfil commitments made to the people. As per the survey, 43% of the Hindus and 52% of all voters in eastern UP gave a high rating to the Bahujan Samaj Party leader. She also earned high ratings among Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes — 62% and 68%, respectively. This suggests it will not be easy for Mayawati's rivals to poach on her core constituency. The finding is particularly relevant for Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who has been emphasising in his recent meetings that only his party can promote the welfare of Dalits. Even as Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has been named the preferred prime ministerial candidate by 12% of the respondents from the Other Backward Classes, 13% among the community pitched for Mayawati and as many as 62% preferred Modi. The BJP is expected to highlight the backward caste identity of Modi in the state where caste affiliations play a critical role in electoral outcomes. The biggest worry for Samajwadi Party is sure to be the electoral mood in western Uttar Pradesh. The party's ratings are the lowest — 15% — in this region. However, it seems to be holding on its present position in central Uttar Pradesh. Muzaffarnagar Comes Handy for Saffron Party Th e c om mu n a l c l a s h e s i n Muzaffarnagar have unsettled social equations in western Uttar Pradesh and catapulted the BJP into a dominant position. Samajwadi Party's popularity has nosedived primarily because it has lost the trust of Muslim voters who hold considerable clout in the region. As many as 57% respondents in the survey said the BJP would gain the most from the recent riots in western Uttar Pradesh. Barring a brief period following the demolition of the Babri Masjid at Ayodhya, when a section of the Jats backed the BJP, the community has been voting along with Muslims. But with the Jat-Muslim conflict in the area severing the social alliance, the BJP's rivals are likely to find it difficult to consolidate the Hindu votes in their favour. The emerging situation can be troubling for not just the SP but also the Congress-RLD alliance. While there is an erosion of Muslim support for the SP, the Jats are no longer willing to consolidate their votes for helping the Congress and the RLD. According to the survey, Narendra Modi registered a sharp rise in popularity after he was named the BJP's prime ministerial candidate on September 13. The voting intent for the BJP also went up as a result. The respondents also expect Narendra Modi to play a key role in Uttar Pradesh, where his close aide Amit Shah has been made in-charge of the BJP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Modi is expected to contest the elections from Varanasi in the state. Majority Feels SP is Mulayam on Congress The Samajwadi Party's attempts to distance itself from the Congressled coalition at the Centre on various issues while continuing to lend it outside support appear to have cut no ice with the electorate in Uttar Pradesh. As many as 53% respondents in the survey said the SP could have a pact with the Congress after the 2014 polls. Thirty-seven per cent, on the other hand, said the SP's main regional rival, Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, could join hands with the Congress. An even fewer 33% saw the possibility of an alliance between the BSP and the Narendra Modi-led BJP. The survey shows that the voters appreciate the complexities involved in a tie-up between the BSP and the Congress despite the latter's recent efforts to clear corruption cases against Mayawati. The BSP, which ensured a complete snapping of ties between the Congress and the Dalits, would not like to provide the ruling party at the Centre an opportunity to revive its appeal among the community. A resurgent Congress could also become a claimant for the support of the upper castes, which firmly backed the party before the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. Nearly half of the respondents named the BJP-led NDA as the best alliance to run the country while just over a fourth backed the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. Significantly, the parliamentary constituencies currently controlled by the SP and the BSP showed an increased preference for an NDA government at the Centre. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's claim that the third front would be in a position to form the government does not seem to have found many takers. Only 11% of the respondents named it as the best option, perhaps a reflection of the loss of appeal of the SP coupled with Modi's increasing popularity.
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